If these teams sell, Deadline will be loaded
Over two-thirds of MLB teams were within nine games of a division lead or Wild Card spot at the All-Star break. As the July 30 Trade Deadline draws closer, decision makers across the league will be forced to decide between pushing for a playoff spot or trading players to set up a run in 2022 or beyond.
Here are six teams and 14 players on the bubble that could shake things up and impact the playoff picture if they become sellers.
(Playoff odds are as of the All-Star break, via Fangraphs.com.)
Atlanta Braves (Playoff odds: 7.6%)
While the Braves have been aggressive early by acquiring outfielder Joc Pederson from the Cubs and catcher Stephen Vogt from the D-backs, the team may still consider selling talent at the Trade Deadline, according to MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal. Atlanta is in a season-defining stretch featuring 15 games in 14 days against Tampa Bay, San Diego, Philadelphia and the New York Mets to start the second half.
Top trade chip -- RHP Charlie Morton: Morton has been stellar over his last six starts, posting a 2.31 ERA with 10 walks and 47 strikeouts. The veteran is an impending free agent who also has a strong postseason pedigree that should appeal to a number of contenders.
Under-the-radar option -- LHP Drew Smyly: The veteran is 5-0 with a 3.02 ERA since the start of June. He is another impending free agent.
Probably staying put -- 1B Freddie Freeman: Despite his impending free agency, the Braves have made it clear that they want to extend the 2020 NL MVP, even though they were unable to complete a deal before the start of this season.
Who could benefit? -- The Angels and Yankees were mentioned as potential fits for Morton by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Any team looking to fortify its rotation would be wise to dial Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos in the coming weeks.
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Chicago Cubs (Playoff odds: 3.1%)
The Cubs have made it clear that they are open for business this July, and they have plenty of quality trade pieces who could greatly impact the playoff picture.
Top trade chips -- 3B/OF Kris Bryant, RHP Craig Kimbrel: Bryant appears to be the biggest name available at this year’s Trade Deadline, and the former NL MVP will certainly garner significant offers before July 30.
Kimbrel, the Cubs’ lockdown closer, carries a 2022 club option on his contract, which will make the price to acquire the veteran reliever that much steeper.
Under-the-radar options -- RHP Zach Davies, RHP Ryan Tepera: Davies posted a stellar 1.72 ERA in May, and he started the Cubs’ combined no-hitter last month with six frames. He is an impending free agent.
Tepera has provided the Cubs with a boost in the bullpen while on a one-year, incentive-laden deal. The 33-year-old has limited opponents to a .149 batting average while posting a 0.81 WHIP, and he is especially dominant against left-handed batters.
Probably staying put -- 1B Anthony Rizzo, SS Javier Báez: The Cubs have been working to extend Rizzo, according to MLB Network insider Jon Heyman, though the club did acquire a power-hitting first-base prospect when they traded Pederson to Atlanta and grabbed first baseman Frank Schwindel off waivers from the A’s.
The Cubs seem interested in extending Báez as well, per Heyman, but there are a number of teams -- including the A’s, Reds and Indians -- with a direct need who could be interested in acquiring the 2020 Gold Glove winner.
Who could benefit? -- The Mets and Nationals have both been rumored as teams with interest in Bryant. But based on his playoff pedigree and positional versatility, every team in the hunt should at least be picking up the phone and kicking the tires on a possible trade.
ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted earlier this month that there could be an AL West bidding war brewing for Kimbrel’s services.
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Cincinnati Reds (Playoff odds: 11.1%)
The Reds had appeared to be closer to buyers than sellers, but poor performances against the division-leading Brewers and Mets followed by another setback vs. the rival Cardinals could send Cincinnati into the selling category.
Top trade chip -- RHP Sonny Gray: The Reds seem unlikely to part ways with Gray, but they do have a pair of top pitching prospects in Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene who have been impressive in the Minors this season. The veteran Gray is under team control through the 2023 season, meaning it will take a significant mix of talent to make the Reds consider parting ways with their ace.
Under-the-radar option -- LHP Wade Miley: Miley -- who threw a no-hitter on May 7 -- has put together a solid season and is 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA across his last nine starts. His contract includes a club option for next season.
Probably staying put -- RF Nick Castellanos: If the Reds choose to sell at the Trade Deadline, they will be looking to retool not rebuild. Castellanos has an opt-out in his contract coming this offseason, but the club has no reason to trade him prior to his impending decision.
Who could benefit? -- An American League club in need of starting pitching, like the Angels, could benefit from a Cincinnati change of course.
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Los Angeles Angels (Playoff odds: 11%)
The Angels have a trio of high-profile superstars in Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Shohei Ohtani, but they still find themselves on the outside looking in due to an injury to Trout and a pitching staff that ranks in the bottom third in ERA, WHIP and opponents’ batting average.
Top trade chip -- RHP Raisel Iglesias: The Angels acquired Iglesias with the goal of him closing postseason games for them this season. They may now be best served having him do just that for another club. Iglesias is 19-for-22 this year in save opportunities, but he could also fill a multi-inning role thanks to nearly identical splits against lefties and righties.
Under-the-radar option -- RHP Alex Cobb: Cobb is in the last year of his contract and has a 10-team trade list. Teams may be interested in acquiring Cobb due to him ranking in the top 10 percent in both barrel percentage and chase rate, per Baseball Savant.
Probably staying put -- Struggling starters: The Angels have a number of starters who are impending free agents -- Dylan Bundy, José Quintana and Andrew Heaney -- but poor performances and bullpen demotions throughout the season have limited their trade value.
Who could benefit? -- A team like the Phillies or Reds that is closer to Wild Card contention could make a compelling offer for Iglesias as a dynamic bullpen piece if the Angels are set on finding a trade partner outside of the AL.
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New York Yankees (Playoff odds: 34.6%)
The Yankees are more likely to buy than sell, but should the team continue to struggle, it may be forced to retool on the fly and find value where it can.
Top trade chip -- LHP Zack Britton: The Yankees activated Britton from the 10-day IL on July 15, giving them a chance to move him into a high-leverage role and perhaps showcase him for other teams. Britton’s contract carries a club option for next season, after which he will be a free agent.
Under-the-radar option -- RHP Chad Green: Green has converted three of four save opportunities this season while boasting walk and spin rates that rank in the top 10 percent of all pitchers, per Baseball Savant.
Probably staying put -- RF Aaron Judge, C Gary Sánchez: Even if the Bronx Bombers choose to sell, the team has given no indication that it would move any part of its title-contending core. Both players will be entering their third and final year of arbitration next season.
Who could benefit? -- People in search of a chaotic Trade Deadline would love to have the Yankees in the mix as either high-profile buyers or sellers. If the Yankees move bullpen pieces, expect an NL team needing long-term bullpen help, such as the Giants or Braves, to come calling.
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Seattle Mariners (Playoff odds 3.9%)
The Mariners have been one of the surprises of the season and find themselves in the AL Wild Card mix thanks in part to excellent records in extra-inning and one-run games. That said, they may be best served trading talent at the height of their value with an eye toward next year and beyond.
Top trade chip -- RF Mitch Haniger: Haniger has moved things into high gear this month, holding an OPS around 1.000 throughout July. He presents a multiyear option for a number of contenders, and MLB Pipeline No. 5 overall prospect Julio Rodriguez appears destined for the big leagues sooner rather than later.
Under-the-radar option -- RHP Kendall Graveman: Graveman has been a stellar part of the Mariners’ bullpen, posting a 2-0 record with a 0.93 ERA and eight saves across 26 appearances this year. A free agent next season, he would be a valuable addition to any contender.
Probably staying put -- LHP Yusei Kikuchi: Kikuchi was an AL All-Star this season, making Seattle’s decision on whether to exercise its club option and trigger a four-year extension for the southpaw even more difficult. The complexity of that deal also could make it complicated to find a trade partner.
Who could benefit? -- The Cardinals have needs for starting-pitching and right-field help. The Mets and White Sox have a need for offense in right field as well, while just about every team that considers itself an October hopeful should be attempting to acquire bullpen help.
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