The surprising leader in 'no-doubt' homers

Think about a home run described as a “no-doubter.” Conjure an image of it in your mind: the crack of the bat, the crowd reaction, the ball soaring into the distance.

In your vision, who is launching this big fly? Is it the 2023 leader in no-doubters, as defined by Statcast? Doubt it.

That player is Pirates outfielder Jack Suwinski, a 15th-round Draft pick who debuted in the Majors last season and did not rank among the top 20 NL outfielders when the first All-Star balloting update was released on Monday. Here is the company he is currently keeping, heading into the start of a key NL Central series at Milwaukee on Friday:

Most no-doubter HR, 2023
1. Jack Suwinski (PIT): 12
2-T. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 11
2-T. Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL): 11
2-T. Matt Olson (ATL): 11
5. Jorge Soler (MIA): 10

No-doubters: Batted balls that would be home runs in all 30 Major League ballparks, based on trajectory, wall heights and distances, and environmental factors.

So that’s Suwinski, followed by two of the game’s biggest superstar talents (Ohtani and Acuña), a slugger with at least 34 homers in each of his past three full seasons (Olson), and another with an MLB home run title and a World Series MVP Award to his credit (Soler). And a bit further down the list, you have the likes of Pete Alonso (eight), Joey Gallo (eight), Aaron Judge (seven), Mike Trout (seven) and more.

Now, it should be noted here that injuries to some other players, including Judge and Alonso, are playing a role here. Last year, on his way to an AL-record 62 total homers, Judge walloped 36 no-doubters -- 12 more than second-place Kyle Schwarber.

No-doubter HR leaders by season (data goes back to 2019)

• 2023: Jack Suwinski (PIT) -- 12 (through Thursday)
• 2022: Aaron Judge (NYY) -- 36
• 2021: Salvador Perez (KC) -- 28
• 2020: Marcell Ozuna (ATL) -- 16 (shortened season)
• 2019: Pete Alonso (NYM), Jorge Soler (KC), Mike Trout (LAA) -- 30

Still, it’s an impressive feat, especially given that Suwinski ranks “only” tied for 14th in the Majors in total homers this season, while leading the Pirates by a healthy margin. That gives him fewer no-doubter chances than some others, but he is taking advantage of them.

Highest no-doubter rate, 2023
Min. 10 total HR (68 total hitters)
1-T. Jack Suwinski (PIT): 80.0% (12 of 15)
1-T. José Ramírez (CLE): 80.0% (8 of 10)
3. Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL): 73.3% (11 of 15)
4. Joey Gallo (MIN): 72.7% (8 of 11)
5. Nolan Arenado (STL): 61.5% (8 of 13)

Judge and Alonso, for example, both have no-doubter rates below 40.0%.

So where did Suwinski come from? It’s fair to say the 24-year-old has flown under the radar. The Padres picked him in the 15th round of the 2016 Draft out of a Chicago high school and included him in a trade package sent to Pittsburgh for veteran infielder/outfielder Adam Frazier before the 2021 Trade Deadline.

While Suwinski was only the Pirates’ 30th-best prospect in MLB Pipeline’s 2022 preseason rankings, he debuted last April and has been a productive player ever since. In the equivalent of roughly one full season of playing time (164 games), he’s posted a well-above-average 116 OPS+ and bashed 34 homers, going deep at one of the highest rates in the Majors.

Lowest at-bats per HR rate, since 2022
Min. 500 at-bats
1. Aaron Judge (NYY): 9.2
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU): 12.4
3. Mike Trout (LAA): 12.7
4. Kyle Schwarber (PHI): 12.8
5. Pete Alonso (NYM): 13.3
6. Byron Buxton (MIN): 13.8
7. Jack Suwinski (PIT): 14.9
8. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 15.2

While Suwinski strikes out a lot, he has a number of other strengths helping drive his no-doubter binge. He’s selective (98th percentile in chase rate, 95th in walk rate). He has one of MLB’s highest fly-ball rates, contributing to a 97th percentile barrel rate (a measure of how often a batter makes the best sort of contact.) He also pulls the ball frequently -- more than 70% of his career homers have been pulled.

While Suwinski's only homer of more than 445 feet this season came at Coors Field, he also has hit only one of 395 feet or less, and his 416-foot average ranks eighth among those with at least 10 big flies.

Suwinski’s power is one reason why the surprising Pirates enter this weekend sitting atop the NL Central. And it also has him leading some big names when it comes to no-doubt bombs.