Worst to first and 5 other surprising projections

Spring Training is right around the corner, and rosters are taking shape. That means it’s a good time to get a read on where things stand heading into the new season.

To that end, Tuesday brought a major development with the unveiling of the 2024 projected standings, according to the PECOTA projections housed at Baseball Prospectus. PECOTA has a rich history, and while projections are not meant to be read as set-in-stone predictions, they do provide an interesting snapshot of how the rosters of all 30 teams stack up at this moment. Even if you disagree with a team’s projected record, there is insight to be found in those numbers.

With that in mind, we asked five MLB.com writers to comb through the PECOTA standings and pick out one intriguing storyline apiece. Here is a look at those selections and what they may have to say about the season ahead.

1. The Cardinals will go from worst to first in the NL Central

What PECOTA says: 86 wins and a division crown

Why it’s notable: The Cardinals finished in last place in the National League Central a year ago, going 71-91 -- 21 games behind the first-place Brewers. Although Milwaukee just traded ace pitcher Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, it’s still surprising to see PECOTA project the Crew for such a dramatic dropoff (92 wins down to 79) while forecasting a 15-game improvement for St. Louis.

The Cardinals have had a busy offseason, with a focus on bolstering their pitching staff, but it’s questionable how much better the club actually is compared to 2023. True, the team signed Sonny Gray, who finished second last season in the American League Cy Young Award voting, to head up its starting five. But the Cardinals’ other notable rotation additions -- Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson -- are both 36 years old and posted a collective 5.22 ERA last season. FanGraphs ranks the Cards’ rotation 19th, behind every NL Central team besides the Pirates. To live up to PECOTA’s projection, St. Louis is likely going to need a banner year from Gray and for its two star bats, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, to be closer to 2022 (combined 14.2 fWAR) than ‘23 (combined 6.3 fWAR).

-- Thomas Harrigan

2. The defending champs will finish nine games out of first place

What PECOTA says: 86 wins, nine behind Houston

Why it’s notable: It’s not that surprising that the Texas Rangers are projected for "only" 86 wins, because they won 90 last year with a lot of things going right, and so far this winter they’ve subtracted Mitch Garver, Aroldis Chapman and Jordan Montgomery while possibly having Corey Seager limited by injury. It’s that they’re this far behind the Astros, because Texas' lineup looks absolutely loaded, especially with young outfielders Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford around for most or all of the season, and it should get some all-time great starting pitchers returning from injury as the season goes on.

On the other hand, the Astros added Josh Hader to a pretty good bullpen, and the Rangers lost Chapman -- and maybe wildly overworked José Leclerc in the playoff push -- from what was already a thin group. FanGraphs ranks their relievers 24th. We’ll take the under on a gap of nine, but bullpens are an easy place to either overperform or underperform. Maybe this one does make sense.

-- Mike Petriello

3. Reigning AL East champs will fall well short of repeat

What PECOTA says: Orioles at 87 wins, seven behind Yankees

Why it’s notable: The Orioles feel ascendant right now. They jumped from 52 to 83 wins in 2022 and then from 83 to 101 last year, winning their second AL East title in the past 26 seasons behind a talented young roster. Obviously, it will be difficult to get much better than that in a tough division -- even with one of the sport’s elite farm systems featuring five of MLB Pipeline’s top 32 prospects (four of whom have a 2024 ETA). But especially with Corbin Burnes filling Baltimore’s burning need for an established ace, it feels as if this club is set up awfully well to lock up back-to-back division crowns for the first time since 1973-74.

Neither PECOTA nor FanGraphs' 2024 projections see it that way, though, pegging Baltimore as a third-place club, albeit one still in line for an AL Wild Card berth. Both also have the Yankees atop the division, despite coming off a massively disappointing 83-win campaign. There are some good reasons for that rosy outlook in the Bronx, and it starts with guys named Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. It’s also worth noting that the 2023 Orioles outperformed their Pythagorean record (based on run differential) by seven games, the second-biggest gap of any team. There are still several question marks in Baltimore, too, including how well a 35-year-old Craig Kimbrel can make up for the loss of lights-out closer Félix Bautista (Tommy John surgery). In the end, though, it’s easy to imagine this high-ceiling club outperforming those expectations.

-- Andrew Simon

4. A New York, New York postseason

What PECOTA says: The Mets (84-78) make the playoffs as an NL Wild Card team, the Yankees (94-68) make it as the AL East champion

Why it’s notable: This is more surprising for the Mets than the Yankees, so we'll start with them. They're coming off a 75-win season, they traded away Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, and they missed out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani and every other marquee free agent this offseason. And yet, the Mets are projected by PECOTA for an 84-78 finish in 2024, which would be good enough to get them into the postseason as the last Wild Card team, just behind the D-backs and Phillies. For that to materialize, you'd have to imagine a lot of things swinging back the Mets' way: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo continuing to be the rocks of the lineup … Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty taking the next step … Jeff McNeil getting back into the batting title race … Kodai Senga staying a Cy Young contender … Edwin Díaz returning to elite closer status.

The Yankees went out and got Juan Soto -- plus Alex Verdugo, Trent Grisham and Marcus Stroman -- so they've made the moves to bounce back from their fourth-place finish in 2023. The fact that they're projected to win the loaded AL East by six games over the Blue Jays, seven over the O's and eight over the Rays might be surprising, but it's not hard to see a team led by Soto, Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole in the playoffs. Still, if the Yanks and Mets both make it in 2024, it'll be the fifth time since 2000 that both New York teams are in the postseason.

-- David Adler

5. Young Reds will experience more growing pains

What PECOTA says: Reds finish with 78 wins, in fourth place in the NL Central and five games out of the postseason

Why it’s notable: No National League team took a bigger leap forward last year than the Reds. Their 82 wins were a 20-game improvement from 2022. Only the World Series-winning Rangers had a better year-to-year jump. Cincinnati was atop its division into August and fell just two games shy of a Wild Card spot. With all of its tantalizing young talent -- Hunter Greene, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and more on the way this year -- there is a sense that this club is only scratching the surface. Plus, the Reds have invested more than $100 million in veterans this offseason to boost their offense (Jeimer Candelario), starting rotation (Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez) and bullpen (Emilio Pagán, Brent Suter).

However, PECOTA sees all of this resulting in a step back, giving the Reds a 78-84 record. That leaves them eight games behind the aforementioned Cardinals and five games out of the Wild Card hunt. There is not a clear front-runner in the NL Central, and there is a realistic scenario where all of this goes wrong. Maybe the electric De La Cruz doesn’t cut down his 33.7% strikeout rate. Perhaps Montas doesn’t regain his previous form as a frontline starter after losing nearly a full year because of right shoulder ailments. And many of the players Cincinnati is depending on this year have experienced fewer than 100 games at the big league level. That makes the Reds' range of outcomes admittedly wide, but these projections are too heavily discounting their immense upside.

-- Brian Murphy