Strong Draft crucial for Toronto's future

This story was excerpted from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

You’re staring at three crucial weeks for the future of the Toronto Blue Jays, and it all starts with the MLB Draft.

This hasn’t been the Blue Jays’ strength by any means. They’ve developed some late-round picks, like Davis Schneider and Spencer Horwitz, but their top picks have more often been used in trades.

Rounds 1-2: Sunday, 7 p.m. ET

Rounds 3-10: Monday, 2 p.m. ET

Rounds 11-20: Tuesday, 2 p.m. ET

Day 1 Draft coverage begins with a preview show at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network, MLB.TV, MLB.com and on the MLB App, with the Draft beginning at 7 p.m. ET. The first round will also be carried by ESPN and TSN2. Day 2 and Day 3 can be seen beginning at 2 p.m. ET each day on MLB.com.

The Blue Jays hold the No. 20 pick in the first round, similar to the range they picked Arjun Nimmala in 2023 (No. 20) and Brandon Barriera in ‘22 (No. 23). Each of these picks chased more upside than we’d seen from Toronto in previous years, and while Barriera’s early development has already been derailed by injuries, Nimmala is on a roll since returning to Single-A Dunedin.

Nimmala’s case, specifically, is one that amateur scouting director Shane Farrell and the Blue Jays can learn from as they work with a bonus pool of $8,987,000, the 23rd largest in the class.

“Something that has stood out to us, as we’ve continuously been picking in the back half and into the 20s, is how effectively we are using our bonus pool and how we can maximize each dollar to make it go a long way,” Farrell said. “We’ve been on the shorter end of bonus pool allotment relative to the league over the last few years, and I think that’s something where we’ve had to be pretty conscious about how we’re using our bonus pool and maximizing each dollar to bring in the most impactful talent that we can. I think you saw that last year with our first pick in Arjun [Nimmala], going a little under slot there, and we were able to use those savings a little later on in the Draft.”

More on the Draft:
Draft Tracker | Bonus pools & pick values | Top 250 prospects | Latest mock | Order | Top tools | Predicting the odds | Prospects attending the Draft | Best Draft prospect from each state | Famous family ties | Get to know Top 20 prospects | Complete coverage

Top prospects:
1. Bazzana | 2. Condon | 3. Caglianone | 4. Wetherholt | 5. Smith | 6. Burns | 7. Kurtz | 8. Montgomery | 9. Griffin | 10. Rainer | 11. Yesavage | 12. Tibbs | 13. Moore | 14. Smith | 15. Caminiti

The Blue Jays see a lot of strength at the top of this year’s Draft. Farrell singled out the college position player group, adding that high school talent has “a little less length” in this class.

One big difference from the 2023 Draft? The Blue Jays have a second-round pick (No. 59).

They didn’t have one last year after signing Chris Bassitt -- which was worth it -- but this should give the club more flexibility to target high-end talent … or balance out its bonus pool spending.

The Blue Jays need a strong Draft, period. This farm system entered the year ranked No. 24 by MLB Pipeline, and there haven’t been enough success stories to change that.

“There are things we’ve done well and things that I’m sure we could improve upon that we have improved upon,” Farrell said. “I think where we have been successful is supplying the organization with picks that have impacted our Major League team, whether they’re playing in our uniforms or they’ve allowed us to go out and acquire guys like Matt Chapman or José Berríos.”

Those are good examples of how this has worked. The package to acquire Chapman was headlined by 2021 first-rounder Gunnar Hoglund (No. 19). The Berríos package was 2020 first-rounder Austin Martin (No. 5) and Simeon Woods-Richardson (2018 second round).

The Blue Jays could need more of these high-end trade chips if they choose to push all-in for one last run with this version of their core in 2025, but beyond that, it’s far more likely this organization will need prospects to develop and play in Toronto. This club’s top-end picks need to be part of that, but again, the Blue Jays have found some value in the late round over the years and there’s some strategy involved in that.

“The thing that comes to mind right away is understanding the player’s makeup, knowing as a [late] Draft pick how difficult and potentially long your road can be to the Major League level,” Farrell explained. “Knowing their resilience and perseverance to keep showing up to the ballpark every day when they may not feel like such a priority relative to some of the other prospects around them. That’s one of the biggest things that we’ve instilled in our process in terms of getting to know the players that we scout.”

The July 30 Trade Deadline will be another pivotal day for the direction of the Blue Jays, but long-term, the shape of their next competitive window could rely heavily on this 2024 Draft class.