3 key storylines that will shape Game 1 of the ALCS

The American League Championship Series was always going to start on Sunday, October 15; you can go back and look. But because there wasn’t a single series in either the Wild Card Series round or the Division Series round that went the full distance, it feels like the postseason has gone by extremely quickly. Particularly in the American League -- which didn’t have that hyper-intense Phillies-Braves to jangle everybody’s nerves -- we haven’t necessarily had one of those drawn-out, every-pitch-makes-your-heart-jump-out-of-its-chest series yet. We’ve had great baseball. But we haven’t had one of those.

• ALCS Game 1, presented by loanDepot: Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET/7:15 CT, FOX

It sure feels like the ALCS is going to give us one, though. The matchup is irresistible: Two heated division rivals, teams within the same state no less, who have active hostilities with each other. One team has reached the last seven ALCS and is trying to win its second World Series in a row; the other hasn’t made it to the ALCS in 12 years and has never won the World Series. We’ve got young stars, grizzled vets and a cavalcade of potential unlikely heroes. And it will all take place in Texas. These two teams have been battling back and forth for months -- honestly, for years. Now they’ve got seven games to settle this once and for all.

• Rangers-Astros position-by-position breakdown | ALCS Game 1 FAQ

Here's a look at three key storylines for Game 1.

Rangers at Astros
Series tied 0-0
Jordan Montgomery vs. Justin Verlander
8:15 p.m. ET/7:15 CT, FOX

Storyline No. 1: Do the Astros still have the Rangers’ number this year?

The Rangers have spent most of the last decade watching the Astros get everything that Texas has always wanted: Division titles, multiple pennants, two World Series, the attention of the baseball world. (Even if not all that attention was positive.) The little brother vibe in this Silver Boot Series has been strong, and the Astros made it even more so with how much they owned the Rangers in 2023. Not only did they win nine out of their 13 meetings this season, but they chased down the Rangers and swiped the AL West division crown from them on the season’s final day by virtue of winning the season series.

Every time the Rangers tried to pull away this year, the Astros stopped them. Then again, Texas looks better and more complete right now than it has any other time this season. Game 1 could be the first sign: Can the Rangers assert themselves right off the bat, or will the Astros and their roaring crowd continue the cycle?

Storyline No. 2: Can Justin Verlander slow down this Rangers offense?

There is something that just feels right about seeing Justin Verlander on the mound in Game 1 of a postseason series for the Astros. (Seriously, he pitched for the Mets earlier this year, you didn’t dream it.) Verlander has been magnificent lately, throwing six shutout innings in the ALDS Game 1 win over the Twins, and he has given up only one earned run in his last three starts, over 19 innings. Dusty Baker and the Astros also resisted the temptation to bring him out for Game 4 of that series on short rest, a decision that looks doubly smart now.

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Basically, the Astros couldn’t have lined it up any better; a 40-year-old is never going to mind the extra rest, after all. The only problem here is the Rangers’ offense itself, which rocked all three Orioles starters in the ALDS. In every game, the Orioles were behind before they really had gotten started. This Rangers offense has stars, obviously, in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, but what has been most impressive of late is how deep their lineup goes. It’s no more fun to deal with Evan Carter, Leody Taveras, Josh Jung or Mitch Garver right now either.

Verlander has more postseason experience than anyone playing in this series, or anyone playing in this postseason, but he is facing a lineup that is at its absolute peak right now. We’re used to seeing Verlander going deep into games in the postseason. But if he can get through five innings against these Rangers, that has to feel like a victory.

Storyline No. 3: How quickly can the Astros get into the Rangers’ bullpen?

With ALCS rosters now confirmed, Texas indeed has Max Scherzer and Jon Gray back in action for this series, which potentially gives the Rangers the rotation they were setting up at the Trade Deadline (Gray may serve as a reliever this series). Jordan Montgomery has emerged as the unlikely ace of the staff, Nathan Eovaldi was fantastic against the Orioles and Scherzer's return should allow Dane Dunning and/or Andrew Heaney to serve as a bullpen option. And know that the Rangers need all the bullpen help they can get. Just about every path to victory for the Astros revolves around knocking around the Rangers’ relief corps, and there’s no better time to start tenderizing up its soft underbelly than in Game 1.

The Astros have a terrific offense themselves, and getting Montgomery out of the game early could start to fray the Rangers’ bullpen in a series with only two off-days. The Astros aren’t scared of anyone in Texas’ bullpen, but they have great respect for the Rangers’ rotation. You don’t have to score eight runs off Montgomery; you just want him out of the game in the fifth inning. Then, for Houston, the fun can begin.