10 numbers that explain Rays' slow start

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ST. PETERSBURG -- Memorial Day has come and gone. The Rays have played 54 games, a full third of their schedule.

That means it’s too late to say it’s still early.

That’s not great news for the Rays, who are 26-28, fourth place in the American League East and 10 1/2 games behind the division-leading Yankees heading into tonight’s series opener against the A’s. But you could argue that things feel worse than they really are for the Rays right now. They’re only 3 1/2 games out of a playoff spot, and their record is better than their overall performance to this point.

“Honestly, I think everybody in here can agree that the quality of baseball hasn’t been great,” starter Zack Littell said Sunday before the Rays snapped their six-game skid. “Even to be in the position that we’re in, having really not played well, it’s still a little bit of a testament to the talent that we do have. It’s just a matter of cleaning up the way we’re playing, and that’s in every facet.

“We haven’t pitched well. We haven’t hit well. We’ve had streaks of both, so clearly it’s there. Putting it all together and trying to play complete, nine-inning games every single night is going to be important moving forward. It’s no longer considered an early season-type thing. Moving forward, everybody in here has that sense of urgency to start playing better baseball, so hopefully that follows.”

Let’s look at 10 numbers that help explain where the Rays stand.

Minus-47

This is the Rays’ run differential. It’s the fifth-worst mark in the Majors, ahead of only the White Sox, Marlins, Rockies and A’s. And this number perfectly aligns with the opinion Littell expressed above, because based on the number of runs they’ve scored (214) and allowed (261), their expected record is 22-32.

4

As in, the Rays have spent the entire season within four games of the .500 mark -- never more than three games over or less than four games under. They’ve simply hovered around the break-even point all season, which is also reflected in their series record: seven wins, eight losses, two four-game splits.

.156/.253/.313

That is the slash line for Randy Arozarena. He has the lowest batting average and the sixth-lowest OPS among qualified MLB hitters this season. He’s been bumped down in the batting order and given days off, but his struggle has reached a point that it’s fair to wonder if he needs more time out of the lineup to reset.

.249/.316/.354

That is the slash line of reigning AL batting champ Yandy Díaz. Entering this season, he’d posted a .291/.384/.448 line in his first five years with the Rays. He’s been much better this month, more in line with his career numbers, but has often said he doesn’t feel like he’s back at his best.

.301/.390/.497

That is the slash line for Isaac Paredes, by far the club’s best hitter to this point, who leads the team (or shares the lead) in hits (55), home runs (nine), RBI (29), walks (23), and all three triple-slash categories. To this point, he looks like the leading candidate to represent the team at the All-Star Game.

43 / 71

That’s the number of home runs the Rays have hit, second-fewest in the Majors, and allowed, the Majors’ second-highest total. (Interestingly, the White Sox are the only team worse in both categories.) It was the exact opposite last year, when Tampa Bay hit the sixth-most homers (230) and allowed the fourth-fewest (177).

.354

That’s the Rays’ slugging percentage, the third-lowest mark in the Majors. Their aforementioned home run total explains part of that, but they are also 27th in the Majors in doubles (74), showing just how little extra-base power there has been in Tampa Bay’s lineup. They also rank 28th in average exit velocity (87.8 mph), average launch angle (11.4 degrees), hard-hit rate (35.8%) and barrel rate (4.3%). That’s left the Rays dependent upon singles, walks and timely hits to sustain rallies, and pitching is simply too good now to score a lot of runs that way.

57

The Rays have stolen 57 bases, fifth-most in the Majors and most in the AL. They’ve also been caught stealing an MLB-most-tying 22 times, but still, speed has been an asset for the Rays as they also lead the Majors with 59 infield hits. José Caballero leads the team (and the AL) in steals, and he’s on pace for 57 this season -- territory reached only by Carl Crawford in this franchise’s history.

Zero / minus-8

Those are the Rays’ totals in Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, respectively. They ranked 18th in the first category as of Monday morning and 23rd in the latter, a stunning departure for a team that typically supports its pitching with strong defense.

24

The Rays’ 4.37 ERA as a staff ranks 24th in the Majors. There have been several impressive performances in the rotation and bullpen, but consider this: The Rays haven’t ranked lower than eighth in the Majors in ERA since they checked in at 16th in 2016.