Can Strider join exclusive 300-K club?

Spencer Strider has already become the fastest player (by innings) in AL/NL history to reach 200 career strikeouts, and there is no shortage of other metrics in which he’s made history during his short career. But there’s one achievement he hasn’t quite knocked out yet: Can Strider become Mr. 300?

There have been 38 instances in the Modern Era (since 1900) of a pitcher having at least 300 strikeouts in a season, including only five in the past 20 years (most recently Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander in 2019). In an era of extreme pitcher conservation, it might have seemed preposterous to think that anybody would join that list in 2023. After all, in the 20th century, every 162-game season saw at least 40 MLB pitchers throw at least 200 innings, whereas there hasn’t been a season to feature more than 15 such pitchers since 2015. (Only nine pitchers are on pace to do so in 2023, via FanGraphs – and Strider is not among them.)

But “preposterous” is just the right word to describe the pace Strider is on heading into Wednesday night’s start against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.

Through 20 starts this season, Strider comfortably leads MLB with 189 strikeouts in 116 2/3 innings, also leading qualified pitchers with 14.6 K/9 IP and 9.5 strikeouts per start. He has not yet missed a start this year, meaning he is on pace to make 33 starts. If we operate under the assumption that he does, it would mean he is on pace to throw 192 1/3 innings and have a staggering 311 strikeouts.

Does this mean he’s a lock to get to 300? Of course not, but he can afford a very slight drop-off in production if he does stay healthy. Strider needs 111 more strikeouts the rest of the way to reach 300. If we assume he makes all 13 remaining starts, he would need approximately 8.5 strikeouts per start, a fair amount below his current 9.5 pace. If we also assume that his innings pace stays the same over those remaining 13 starts (5.8 innings per start), he would need to average 13.2 K/9 IP over the rest of the season to get to 300, below his current blistering mark of 14.6.

Of course, another core factor here is that the Braves lead the NL East by 11 1/2 games, with a 99.6% chance to win the division, per FanGraphs. Given that, Atlanta could have reason to limit Strider’s workload down the stretch to keep him fresh for October, which would limit his chances. Still, given the way he can churn out K’s, Strider will have a shot at 300 even if he skips a start or two.

Joining elite company

While 300-K seasons were slightly more common in the 20th century -- Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson each retired with six apiece -- it’s become rarer in the current age. Strider would join the aforementioned Cole and Verlander, plus Clayton Kershaw (2015), Chris Sale (2017) and Max Scherzer (2018), as the only ones to hit the threshold in the past 20 years. Strider (who turns 25 in October) would also become the fifth-youngest player in the Modern Era to have 300 strikeouts in a season, and the youngest in almost 60 years.

Youngest pitchers with a 300-K season in Modern Era
(By seasonal age, i.e. age as of July 1)
1. Vida Blue, 1971 A’s (21 years, 11 months, 3 days)
2. Walter Johnson, 1910 Senators (22 years, 7 months, 25 days)
3. Sam McDowell, 1965 Cleveland (22 years, 9 months, 10 days)
4. Walter Johnson, 1912 Senators (24 years, 7 months, 25 days)
5. Nolan Ryan, 1972 Angels (25 years, 5 months, 1 day)

> Strider: 24 years old, 8 months, 3 days old on July 1, 2023

As for context within the Braves franchise, which has historically seen some great pitching with the likes of John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Warren Spahn and Phil Niekro, Strider would be blazing a trail that none of those Hall of Famers have walked. Strider would become the first Braves pitcher in the Modern Era to hit the 300 mark, and the third one overall, joining Charlie Buffinton (1884) and Jim Whitney (1883) … both of whom did it back before the mound moved to its current distance of 60 feet, 6 inches.

Want some more history? As previously mentioned, Strider’s current pace puts him at 311 strikeouts in 192 1/3 innings. If he does this, he would shatter the all-time record for fewest innings pitched in a 300-K season. That mark currently belongs to Gerrit Cole (212 1/3 IP in 2019), who surpassed Pedro Martinez’s 1999 record by a single inning. Not surprisingly, 300-K seasons have followed baseball’s overall trend of lower innings totals but higher K-rates, as the averages below show.

1900-1939: Four 300-K seasons (averaged 361.6 IP and 7.9 K/9)
1940-1969: Five 300-K seasons (322.8 IP, 9.4 K/9)
1970-1989: 13 300-K seasons (303.7 IP, 9.6 K/9)
1990-2009: 11 300-K seasons (251.5 IP, 11.7 K/9)
2010-2022: Five 300-K seasons (220.6 IP, 12.5 K/9)

Strider’s historic strikeout skills

It’s easy to see that the 300-K milestone would be significant for Strider in many ways. But even if Strider comes up short of the triple-century mark, there’s a seemingly endless list of records that he either already has set or is on pace to set. Those records include the following:

• Over the course of his career, Strider averages 8.9 strikeouts per start. That’s the highest since at least 1906 by any player with at least 30 starts, comfortably ahead of second-place Randy Johnson (8.0).

• Strider has 354 strikeouts in his 40 career starts, most since at least 1906 by any player through his first 40 starts. That’s 12 more than the previous record holder, Dwight Gooden (342).

• Strider has 391 strikeouts in 250 2/3 career innings, including relief appearances. He is on pace to shatter the all-time record for fewest innings needed to reach 400 strikeouts by a player who made at least half of his appearances as a starter over that span, currently held by Dinelson Lamet (306 2/3 innings).

• Strider has struck out 38.6% of the batters he has faced in his career, the highest rate all-time by any player with at least 30 starts. That’s more than seven percentage points higher than the next-closest player, Shohei Ohtani (31.3%).

• Strider has averaged 14.0 K/9 IP during his career, the highest rate all-time by any player with at least 30 starts. That’s over two strikeouts per nine innings more than second-place Hunter Greene (11.9).

• This season specifically, Strider’s average of 14.6 K/9 IP is on pace to set the all-time single-season record (min. 20 starts), which would surpass Gerrit Cole’s 13.8 mark in 2019.

We could go on all day, but you get the picture by now. Strider is doing things the likes of which have never been seen in this sport -- and he has roughly two months left to truly make 2023 a season for the record books.