Will Ohtani make history with MLB’s first 50-50 season?

Shohei Ohtani’s standout career has been characterized by breaking new ground. Can he do it again?

Although Ohtani isn't the first player to join the vaunted 40-40 club -- 40+ home runs and 40+ stolen bases in the same season -- he could be the very first to reach another power-speed milestone altogether.

Ohtani has a real shot of becoming the first 50-50 player in AL/NL history, putting him on the precipice of arguably the best power-speed season ever.

The Dodgers superstar picked up his 40th homer and steal on Friday against the Rays, crushing a walk-off grand slam to become the sixth member of the 40-40 club. But even though there's more than a month left in the regular season, reaching 50-50 is far from a certainty for Ohtani.

Based on his current pace and production, past precedent and the Dodgers’ upcoming schedule, let’s assess Ohtani’s chances of creating a whole new club in 2024.

What’s Ohtani’s current pace?

After Friday's game, Ohtani is on precisely a 50-50 pace. With 40 homers and 40 steals through 129 team games, he’s on pace for 50 of each across a full 162-game season. If Ohtani can sustain his power-speed production for the final month-plus, he'll hit -- or surpass -- the 50-50 mark.

But as history proves, that’s easier said than done.

Who’s come the closest to 50-50?

No AL/NL player has ever reached 50-50, and no one has gotten particularly close.

In terms of combined homers and steals away from the milestone, Ronald Acuña Jr.’s historic 41-homer, 73-steal campaign in 2023 that won him the 2023 National League MVP Award is the nearest any player has been -- and Acuña was still nine home runs away. The player to reach the highest number in both statistics, meanwhile, is Alex Rodriguez (42 HR, 46 SB in 1998).

Ohtani has a realistic shot to reach 50-50 because he has set a blistering pace, already becoming the quickest player to 40-40 by a WIDE margin -- he did so in just 126 games played.

Games played to reach 40-40 club
Shohei Ohtani, 2024 (40 HR, 40 SB so far): 126
Alfonso Soriano, 2006 (finished with 46 HR, 41 SB): 147
Jose Canseco, 1988 (42 HR, 40 SB): 151
Ronald Acuña Jr., 2023 (41 HR, 73 SB): 152
Alex Rodriguez, 1998 (42 HR, 46 SB): 153
Barry Bonds, 1996 (42 HR, 40 SB): 158

And while 40-40 is already behind him, there’s no reason Ohtani can’t set his sights higher. Based on his production this season, the Dodgers star might just need one classic Ohtani hot streak to make some history.

Past production shows it’s possible

Just how dangerous can Ohtani be at the plate AND on the basepaths? He showed it on Friday at Dodger Stadium, swiping second in the fourth inning after an infield single and ending the game with his grand slam to center in the ninth. It was Ohtani’s 27th career contest with both a homer and a steal. (One of those even came on a day Ohtani pitched, as he tossed four innings, slugged his 40th homer and stole his 14th base of the year for the Angels on Aug. 3, 2023.)

Explosiveness like that -- both off his quick bat and from his above-average sprint speed -- make Ohtani capable of a standout September to reach 50-50. It’s not just the occasional big game, either: Ohtani has produced in both columns throughout 2024.

In a recent 10-game span, from Aug. 9-18, Ohtani hit five homers and swiped five bases. He did the same in a stretch of 10 games from May 3-May 14, too. Ohtani even had four homers and four steals in a pair of overlapping five-game stretches between April 30 and May 7.

So what does that mean for his chances of getting to 50 homers and steals?

Well, the Dodgers have 33 games remaining after Friday's walk-off win. And Ohtani needs 10 homers and 10 steals to reach the milestone. Out of his 94 spans of 33 games this season, Ohtani has reached both marks 25 times (26.6%).

Ohtani’s best 33-game spans, 2024
10 HR, 18 SB (July 5-Aug. 14, July 6-Aug. 15)
11 HR, 17 SB (July 13-Aug. 21, July 14-Friday)
14 HR, 10 SB (June 16-July 26)
13 HR, 11 SB (June 17-July 27, June 18-July 28)
12 HR, 12 SB (3 overlapping spans)

Ohtani’s 40th homer and 40th steal of the season Friday gave him 11 homers and 17 steals in his past 33 games, a pace that would give him a 51-57 season if he were to repeat it to end 2024. Repeating his 14-homer, 10-steal span earlier in the summer, alternatively, would put him at a cool 54-50.

Obviously, this only samples Ohtani’s very best spans of production and doesn’t mean he’s a lock to put up these gaudy numbers for the rest of the year. It also doesn’t account for several key factors, including Ohtani’s recent surge on the basepaths. Twenty-four of his 40 steals have come in his past 43 games, compared to 16 swipes in his first 82 games.

Additionally, homers are roughly one and a half times more common across MLB in 2024 than steals. Prior to this season, Ohtani had 171 career homers and just 86 career steals, so reaching the baserunning half of the milestone might be more difficult (which certainly says something about Ohtani’s power at the plate).

And lastly, basing Ohtani’s 50-50 chances on his past production doesn’t consider the Dodgers’ remaining schedule -- which just might play a role.

Remaining slate could have a say

The teams Ohtani and Los Angeles face for the rest of the season might certainly impact Ohtani’s chase for 50-50, and it goes beyond the obvious.

Yes, bad teams are more likely to give up home runs. The bottom three teams in homers allowed this season are all below .500, including the Rockies (second-most HR allowed) -- who happen to be the Dodgers’ most common opponent from here on out. L.A. and Colorado face off six times before the end of the year, including a season-ending three-game set at Coors Field. Ohtani potentially entering the Mile High City on 45 or 46 home runs and leaving with 50+ is hardly out of the question. On the flip side, the Dodgers still have a four-game set with the Braves, who have given up the fewest homers of any team in the Majors.

The Dodgers’ schedule can also come into play in terms of steals. For as easy as it is to launch homers against Rockies pitchers, particularly at Coors, Colorado is one of the best teams in MLB in catching runners stealing. Just 74.0% of opposing runners succeed on stolen-base attempts against the Rockies, the fifth-lowest rate in the Majors.

L.A.’s remaining opponents run the gamut in terms of their success at preventing steals, with the Cubs and Rays rather easy to run on:

Dodgers’ remaining foes, ranked by opponents’ stolen-base success rates
Rockies (6 games remaining): 74.0%, 5th best in MLB
Angels (2 games): 76.9%, T-8th
Marlins (3 games): 76.9%, T-8th
Guardians (3 games): 77.2%, T-11th
Braves (4 games): 77.2%, T-11th
D-backs (4 games): 78.0%, 16th
Padres (3 games): 79.0%, 19th
Orioles (3 games): 80.2%, 21st
Cubs (3 games): 81.2%, 25th
Rays (2 games): 82.6%, 26th

While their percentages above are in the middle of the pack, the Padres (tied for third fewest) and Guardians (fifth fewest) have seen relatively few stolen-base attempts to begin with, too. Ohtani has been caught stealing only four times this season after being nabbed an MLB-high 10 times on 36 attempts in 2021, but he’ll have to pick his spots to avoid being denied of 50 steals by opportunistic opposing backstops.

One schedule-related point in Ohtani’s favor does appear to be out of the way. With a large lead in the NL West, the Dodgers could have felt compelled to sit Ohtani down the stretch to rest him for the postseason. But with the D-backs just four games back and the Padres 4 1/2 games out entering play Saturday, the chances of Ohtani sitting out series like the clash in Colorado in late September appear much lower.

What’s the verdict?

So where does that leave us?

As evidenced by, you know, the “nobody’s EVER done it before” factor, 50-50 is a remarkably hard achievement -- but looking at the whole picture, there’s no major obstacle in Ohtani’s path. He doesn’t seem hampered by an injury sapping his power or his speed. His team’s schedule ahead is manageable, although not exactly favorable. And even though his production has slipped a bit this month, he’s still keeping the pace: Ohtani is hitting just .209 in August, but he’s still managed eight homers and 12 steals despite only 18 hits. If his batting average and on-base percentage tick back up, he’s even more likely to reach the 50-50 milestone.

Still, there’s a pretty good chance it just doesn’t happen -- that Ohtani falls short in one or both categories. If he has to “settle” for the quickest 40-40 season ever -- and being the first player to eclipse 42-42 -- it’s certainly no big loss.

But with 50-50 on the line -- and a truly special player poised to chase history -- it’s sure fun to think about.