What needs to happen for Ohtani to win Triple Crown?

As the Dodgers get ready to play their final game of the 2024 regular season on Sunday in Colorado, MLB’s first Triple Crown in 12 years -- and second in 57 years -- remains a possibility.

No, it's not likely. Then again, Shohei Ohtani has made a habit of beating the odds to achieve extremely rare or even unprecedented feats. So would you really count him out?

Entering Friday, Ohtani was not the only MVP Award favorite with a Triple Crown shot. In fact, the Yankees' Aaron Judge was in a similar situation in the AL. Both owned big leagues in home runs and RBIs. Each trailed his league’s batting average leader by seven points, with the Royals' Bobby Witt Jr. ahead of Judge and the Padres' Luis Arraez ahead of Ohtani. A third competitor also stood between both superstars and the batting title: the Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on the AL side and the Braves' Marcell Ozuna on the NL side.

Their paths have since diverged, however. After taking Friday's game off and going 0-for-5 on Saturday against the Pirates, Judge (.322) remains well behind Guerrero (.324) and Witt (.332). Even a 5-for-5 game on Sunday, combined with an 0-for-5 for Witt, would not be enough.

Meanwhile, Ohtani has surged closer to the top spot and made it a two-man race between him and Arraez. So let's focus our Triple Crown attention on Mr. 50-50. Here is a closer look at exactly what would need to happen on Sunday for Ohtani to add another extraordinary accomplishment to his collection.

NL batting average leaderboard

1. Luis Arraez (SD): .314 (199-for-634) -- 3:10 p.m. ET at AZ (RHP Brandon Pfaadt)
2. Shohei Ohtani (LAD): .310 (196-for-632) -- 3:10 p.m. at COL (RHP Ryan Feltner)

Setting the stage

As a starting point, we'll assume that both Arraez and Ohtani play a full game -- or something close to it -- on Sunday, even though neither team has anything left to clinch. Arraez got a day of rest on Saturday, and the Padres will be off on Monday before hosting Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series on Tuesday. Ohtani has not rested this weekend, but the Dodgers get a first-round bye, meaning he already won't be playing again until the Division Series starts next Saturday. Plus, this feat is at stake. (It should also be noted that Arraez is looking to make history of his own by winning a batting title for a third different team in three straight seasons.)

The next question is how many at-bats each hitter will get. That is obviously impossible to know for sure, as it's impacted not only by how many runners a team puts on base but also by whether a hitter's outcomes are official at-bats (rather than, say, a walk, hit by pitch or sac fly). However, we can take an educated guess.

Ohtani, batting leadoff in the robust offensive environment of Coors Field, got five at-bats on both Friday and Saturday (despite a walk in the latter game). Arraez, also a leadoff man, got five at-bats of his own on Friday. In September, he's averaged 4.5 at-bats per start.

While the actual range of possibilities is even wider, let's take a look at three scenarios: one in which both players get four at-bats on Sunday, one in which they both get five, and then an additional scenario that would leave both players happy.

FOUR AT-BATS APIECE

• Ohtani could not win the batting title with less than three hits.
• If Ohtani went 3-for-4, he would finish at .313. That would win Ohtani the batting title only if Arraez went 0-for-4, finishing at .312.
• If Ohtani went 4-for-4, he would finish at .314. That would win him the batting title if Arraez went no better than 1-for-4, which would put him at .313.

FIVE AT-BATS APIECE

• As in the scenario above, Ohtani could not win the batting title with less than three hits.
• If Ohtani went 3-for-5, he would finish at .312. That would win him the batting title only if Arraez went 0-for-5, finishing at .311.
• If Ohtani went 4-for-5, he would finish at .314. That would win him the batting title if Arraez went no better than 1-for-5, finishing .313.
• If Ohtani went 5-for-5, he would finish at .316. That would win him the batting title if Arraez went no better than 2-for-5, finishing at .315.

BONUS SCENARIOS

OK, now consider this: What if Ohtani and Arraez finish in a tie? We should note here that for batting titles, averages are taken out to additional decimal places in order to break ties. However, if both players have the exact same numbers of hits and at-bats, creating a true tie, then both players win the batting title. And in Ohtani's case, that still would give him the Triple Crown.

And yes, we've only explained all this because it is, in fact, a realistic outcome of Sunday.

• Let's say Ohtani goes 3-for-4, which is hardly outlandish. That would bring him to 199 hits in 636 at-bats (.313). Meanwhile, Arraez goes 0-for-2, perhaps with the Padres removing him from the game early, or perhaps due to a couple of plate appearances that don't count as official at-bats. He would then also finish 199-for-636.
• The same thing applies if Ohtani goes 4-for-5, while Arraez goes 1-for-3. Both players would then finish the season exactly 200-for-637 (.314).

Again, this still doesn't capture all of the real-life possibilities. But the bottom line is this: Ohtani has a chance -- but he probably needs at least three hits in his season finale. If he gets more than that, he will put some real pressure on Arraez.

With these two sensational hitters playing at the exact same time on Sunday, that would stir up some real drama.