Scherzer has set high free-agent bar for Cole

This offseason, Gerrit Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract with the Yankees, the largest by total value for a pitcher and the highest average annual value, too, at $36 million. There was plenty of talk when he was introduced at Yankee Stadium about how many championships the club has to win to make the contract worth it. There’s no question -- expectations are high in the Bronx right now. Cole will be expected to produce, and there are team-wide expectations that come into play, too.

“We need to win some world championships, and I believe we're going to do that sooner rather than later. I believe we're going to do that. Plural,” Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner said when Cole was introduced.

That’s a lot of anticipation and a lofty goal, but makes sense to hear, given the commitment the Yankees made to Cole and the team they have assembled.

Cole has had a stellar career so far and really proved himself in 2019, to be sure. But he has a lot of work to do over the next nine years if he’s going to be as successful a free agent signing as the current best free-agent pitcher signing: Max Scherzer. Scherzer signed a seven-year, $210 million contract with the Nationals entering the 2015 season.

Here are five reasons why Scherzer is the gold standard for a free-agent pitcher signing working out as planned:

Conventional stats

Simply put, Scherzer has been one of the best pitchers in the Majors since he joined the Nationals entering the 2015 season -- it’s hard to imagine the team could have hoped for anything better. In that span, he’s 79-39 with a 2.74 ERA, 1,371 strikeouts, a 0.94 WHIP and a .199 opponent batting average. And he’s thrown 1,050 2/3 innings along the way. Those numbers speak for themselves, but let’s put them into context.

The only pitcher with more wins in that span is Zack Greinke, with 82. The only pitchers to throw at least 600 innings in that span and have a lower ERA are Clayton Kershaw (2.38) and Jacob deGrom (2.61).

Scherzer’s 1,371 strikeouts in that span are 101 more than any other pitcher in the Majors. His 0.94 WHIP trails only Kershaw (0.93), and just barely. His .199 opponent batting average is the lowest in baseball (min. 600 IP).

And his 1,050 2/3 innings? That total leads the way by almost 50 innings.

Accomplishments

It’s not just the end-of-year stat lines, though -- it’s the games he’s turned in within that span to reach those overall numbers that are notable, too. Since joining the Nationals, Scherzer has thrown two no-hitters, both in 2015, and had a 20-strikeout game, too.

Let’s start with the no-hitters. Scherzer’s no-hitter on June 20, 2015 against the Pirates was the first of his career. When he threw his second on October 3 that season at Citi Field, he became the sixth pitcher to throw multiple no-hitters in a calendar year (including Roy Halladay, who threw one in the postseason and one in the regular season).

There’s plenty more to that second no-hitter, too. He totaled 17 strikeouts, tying the record for most in a no-hitter, initially set by Nolan Ryan on July 15, 1973. He had a game score of 104, the highest by any pitcher in an outing since Kerry Wood’s 20-strikeout game in 1998.

Speaking of 20 strikeouts in a nine-inning outing, Scherzer joined that list inhabited by Roger Clemens (twice), Wood, and Randy Johnson on May 11, 2016. And he did it in his first start against the Tigers since leaving the team in free agency to join the Nats.

Awards and accolades

When Scherzer joined the Nats, he had one Cy Young Award to his name -- the 2013 AL honor. He proceeded to win the NL version in back-to-back years in 2016-17, becoming the second pitcher in franchise history to win even one Cy Young, joining 1997 Pedro Martínez, and the first to win since the club moved to D.C.

At the time, Scherzer was the 10th pitcher to win Cy Young Awards in consecutive seasons -- he’s now one of 11, along with deGrom. In 2018, Scherzer finished second behind deGrom, and in 2019, he was third behind deGrom and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Overall, Scherzer has finished top five in Cy Young voting in seven straight seasons, dating to his 2013 award-winning season in Detroit. That’s tied for the longest such streak all-time with 1992-98 Greg Maddux and 2011-17 Clayton Kershaw, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

In other words: if Scherzer finishes top five in Cy Young voting in 2020, he’ll set a record for consecutive such finishes. And all but two of those years occurred in a Nationals uniform.

Scherzer has also been an All-Star each season of his Nationals career. No pitcher in franchise history has found his way to the Midsummer Classic more than that. The only other to reach five times was Steve Rogers, for the Expos. Oh, and Scherzer started back-to-back All-Star Games, in 2017-18, too.

Postseason

Remember when we talked about World Series titles as a measure of success earlier? Well, in 2019, Scherzer became a World Series champion for the first time, helping a franchise that had been around since 1969 finally win it all, in its 51st season of existence and his fifth year in town.

And of course, Scherzer was a big reason why. In addition to helping the team rebound from a 19-31 start in the regular season to even make the postseason a possibility, he was clutch in October -- in five starts and a relief appearance. Scherzer threw seven innings of one-run baseball in NLDS Game 4 to send the series to a decisive fifth game, then turned in seven shutout innings with 11 strikeouts and one hit in Game 2 of the NLCS, not allowing that hit until the seventh.

But the start most likely to become a part of postseason lore was his World Series Game 7 start. Scherzer had been scheduled to start Game 5, but was scratched from the game about four hours before due to neck pain. Despite that, he managed to start Game 7, allowing two runs in five innings. He wasn’t the pitcher of record, but he kept the Nats in the game and they eventually won in comeback fashion to clinch the title. With that, Scherzer helped the Nationals do what every team strives to do each year: win it all.

Value

According to FanGraphs, Scherzer has been worth 32.6 WAR in his time with the Nationals. That’s the most WAR of any pitcher since 2015, which already tells you that he’s been the most valuable pitcher in that span, at least according to this metric. But there’s another way to interpret that WAR value to consider how much he has been worth in terms of money, too.

FanGraphs calculates $/WAR -- how much money 1 WAR was worth in a given season. If we take Scherzer’s WAR with the Nationals and convert it into those dollar amounts, he’s been worth $260.9 million since 2015, by this metric. His deal, you’ll recall, was for $210 million. That means Scherzer has been worth $50.9 million more than what he signed for -- and he still has two years left on his contract.

That’s the largest such figure -- of worth higher than one’s contract value -- for any free-agent pitcher deal of $100 million or more that began in 2002 or later (when $/WAR dates to). The only higher overall value on a $100 million contract was for a position player: Carlos Beltrán was worth $58.2 million more than what he signed for over the course of his seven-year, $119 million deal with the Mets -- though he finished that contract in San Francisco after a midseason trade in the final year.

The only other $100 million contracts in that span where the player was worth more than the signing total: Matt Holliday’s $120 million deal -- worth $47.8 million more -- and Cliff Lee’s $120 million contract -- worth $22.5 million more.

That puts Scherzer in some pretty rarefied air ... and it gives Cole some lofty numbers to shoot for.