Questions for the Padres entering 2021
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SAN DIEGO -- Half a decade ago, when the Padres set out to overhaul their big league roster, they did so with one eye on 2020.
Internally, they aimed for 2020 as their breakthrough. The Padres hoped to blend young talent, shrewd transactions and marquee free-agent signings into a sustained period of success -- beginning in ‘20.
Sure enough, that breakthrough came, and the Padres finished with the second-best record in the National League. Now, it’s time to get greedy.
For the first time this century perhaps, the Padres are legitimate World Series contenders, and they’re hellbent on snapping a title drought that spans their entire existence. In a holiday transaction frenzy last week, San Diego landed Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Ha-Seong Kim.
In the wake of general manager A.J. Preller’s latest spree, here are five questions lingering over the Padres for 2021.
1. Have they closed the gap on the Dodgers?
For all the good vibes surrounding San Diego's breakthrough 2020 and its offseason boon, a massive hurdle looms. The Padres are no longer NL cellar dwellers. They've reached "contender" status. But the final boss is always the toughest, and the road to an NL pennant still goes through Los Angeles.
The Padres were swept by the Dodgers in the NL Division Series in 2020. The reigning World Series champs won't be dethroned so easily after reeling off eight consecutive division titles.
“When we left Texas after losing in the Division Series, the biggest thought that we had was just: We have to get better,” Preller said. “Just go out and get better.”
There’s little doubt they’ve gotten better by adding Snell and Darvish to a rotation mix that already features Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack and MLB Pipeline’s top pitching prospect, MacKenzie Gore. How much better? That remains to be seen.
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2. Is the young pitching ready to take the next step?
Gore, Ryan Weathers and Adrian Morejon will all be given a chance to win a rotation spot next spring. Gore in particular has been viewed as a rotation building block.
"Are we a World Series contender?" manager Jayce Tingler mused at his Winter Meetings media availability. "I think that's going to be determined by a couple things: The growth of some of our players, certainly on the starting pitching side. ... What are they doing in the offseason? Can they take steps in their game?"
Now that the Padres have added two aces to their mix, their roster feels fairly complete. There aren’t many questions marks -- save for the back end of their rotation. Some high-upside young arms might be ready to answer those questions emphatically.
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3. What's the health status of Lamet?
Lamet underwent platelet-rich plasma therapy on his right elbow, and seems to be recovering nicely -- thus far.
“He continues to do very well,” Preller said. “He’s into his throwing program now. Every report seems to be extremely positive, and he’s right on line to come to Arizona and be ready to roll.”
The Padres are choosing to remain optimistic regarding Lamet's recovery. But the reality is: They won't be certain that his injury has fully healed until he gets into game action next spring.
If Lamet is healthy, the Padres can slot him into the front of their rotation alongside Snell and Darvish, making up arguably the best rotation in baseball.
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4. What else does Preller have up his sleeve?
At the 2020 Trade Deadline -- while most of the league played it safe -- Preller went on an unprecedented spree. He pulled off a quick-hitting series of six trades in a 72-hour span, landing 10 players and shipping 16 players elsewhere.
Four months later, Preller completed a dizzying sequence of moves to acquire two perennial Cy Young candidates and one of the sport’s most coveted free-agent infielders.
What’s next? With a fairly complete offense and rotation, Preller is almost certainly done making major splashes this winter. (Then again, this is A.J. Preller we’re talking about.)
But there’s work to do on the fringes of the roster. Then, come Trade Deadline season, it’s worth wondering how aggressive Preller will be once again. Despite their flurry of recent moves, the Padres still have a strong farm system to deal from.
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5. Where does Tatis go from here?
Fernando Tatis Jr. is already one of baseball's best players and a revelatory talent. He has five legitimately elite tools, and generational flair to go along with them. He's coming off a fourth-place finish in NL MVP Award voting and the best shortstop season in franchise history.
And he's only 21.
That means, believe it or not, Tatis has room to get even better. He has room to grow his already brilliant skill set -- and he seems determined to do so. That's why the Padres view Tatis as their foundational roster piece, and it's why they'd love to lock him up with a long-term extension at some point in 2021.
Tatis has already put forth the best two-year start to a career in franchise history. What will he do for an encore in '21? Well, Tatis is a player who tags up on infield popups and turned himself into an elite shortstop overnight. Why bother making predictions? Just sit back, grab the popcorn and enjoy.
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