After flirting with 40-40, what's next for Acuña?

ATLANTA -- Instead of breaking my resolution to not create ridiculous preseason expectations in 2020, I’ll resist the temptation to say Ronald Acuña Jr. will flirt with a 50-50 season. Instead, I’ll simply predict he’ll become the fifth player in MLB history to hit 40 homers and register 40 stolen bases in a season.

Still just a shot in the dark? Maybe.

Could he have one of the greatest seasons ever and still fall short of the 40-40 qualifications? No doubt about it.

But now is the time to make bold predictions, and considering what Acuña did last year, you certainly wouldn’t be going out on a limb by predicting the Braves outfielder could gain entrance to this exclusive club.

Acuña hit 41 homers and stole 37 bases in his first full big league season in 2019, and he registered just one steal over his final nine games and missed the team’s final four games because of a strained left hip muscle.

Consequently, even though he fell short of 40-40, Acuña still finished the season as one of only five players to hit at least 40 home runs and steal 37 bases in a season. The only other member of this quintet to fall short of a 40-40 season was Barry Bonds, who was 32 years old when he tallied 40 homers and swiped 37 bags in 1997. Bonds had become the 40-40 club’s second member the previous season, when he hit 42 homers and swiped 40 bags.

Alex Rodriguez was 22 years old when he hit 42 homers and stole 46 bases in 1998. Jose Canseco (42 HRs, 40 SB) was 23 when he produced the game’s first 40-40 season in 1988, and Alfonso Soriano (46 HRs, 41 SB) was 30 when he became the most recent member of this exclusive club in 2006.

Acuña, who turned 22 on Dec. 18, is at a point in his career when it’s logical to think he will still run enough to reach 40 stolen bases. He is also more than capable of enjoying at least a few more 40-homer seasons.

But here are a few things to consider when discussing whether Acuña will enter the 40-40 club this year:

Power comps

Acuña is one of seven players to tally two 25-homer seasons at 21 or younger, and his 67 homers stand as the fourth-highest total produced by any player before his 22-year-old season. The only other players to reach that total at that age were Mel Ott (86 in 1,724 at-bats), Tony Conigliaro (84 in 1,483 at-bats), Eddie Mathews (72 in 1,107 at-bats) and Frank Robinson (67 in 1,183 at-bats).

Looking at those five players at this stage of their careers from an at-bat/home run perspective, they’d rank in this order: Mathews (15.38), Acuña (15.81), Conigliaro (17.65), Robinson (17.66) and Ott (20.04).

Mathews and Robinson were the only members of this group to produce a 40-homer season after their 21-year-old season. Mathews did so three more times, including during his 22- and 23-year-old seasons. Robinson reached this mark just once, in 1966, which was his 30-year-old season.

The Trout comp

Considering Mike Trout is the only other player to join the 30-30 club at 21 or younger, it also makes sense to look at what the Angels superstar did during the early stages of his career.

Trout hit 30 homers and stole 49 bases when he was 20 years old in 2012. The three-time American League MVP tallied 77 more plate appearances the following year, but he produced fewer homers (27) and stolen bases (33). He has reached 30 steals just once over the following six seasons, in 2016, when he hit 29 homers and stole 30 bases.

Still, Trout is the game’s best player, and Acuña certainly has the potential to grab that torch over the next few years.

Unpredictable stolen-base projections

Acuña entered last summer’s All-Star break with 37 stolen base attempts and then proceeded to add 30 more attempts to that total over his next 66 games. Speed is one of his best tools, but it remains to be seen whether the increased running he did in the second half last season was more of an outlier or a foreshadowing.

What about the baseballs?

MLB’s independent study into the league-wide home run surge last year concluded that 60 percent of the home run increase could be attributed to a reduced drag from lower stitches, leading to less drag on the ball and greater distance on homers. The other 40 percent was traced to a change in hitters' approach.

When Acuña was criticized for not hustling on a single he hit off the right-field wall in Game 1 of the National League Division Series, some fans defended him by suggesting the baseballs used in the playoffs were different. Thus, the outfielder shouldn’t be blamed for not racing out of the box after hitting what might have been a home run during the regular season.

Well, two innings later he hit a 455-foot no-doubter, the fifth-longest postseason homer dating back to 2015, when Statcast began tracking this data. So it doesn’t appear the baseball should be considered a significantly influential variable for Acuña, whose home runs averaged 418 feet last year. The only players (minimum 20 home runs) with a longer average were Joey Gallo and Mike Trout, who tied at 419 ft.

The average distance of Acuña’s 26 homers in 2018 was 410 feet Unless they start using bowling balls, there shouldn’t be reason for concern about how his power might be affected by any alterations.