How Rox are valuing speed in scouting process

This story was excerpted from Thomas Harding’s Rockies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

DENVER -- New rules this season have encouraged players to steal bases, in part because pitchers are still figuring out how to combat the running game with some of their best tools (pickoff throws, holds and step-offs) restricted. It has made finding players daring to take off more of a factor in scouting amateur players, Rockies senior director of scouting operations Marc Gustafson said.

Speed has always been a factor in the early rounds of the MLB Draft. Charlie Blackmon (2008, second round) and Trevor Story ('11, 45th overall) are examples. More recently Rockies' No. 1 prospect and MLB Pipeline’s No. 28 prospect Zac Veen ('20) and No. 4 prospect Benny Montgomery ('21) listed speed at or toward the top of their tools package.

“Speed has always been a component,” Gustafson said. “And when you look at the modern-day player, he’s bigger, stronger and faster.”

But the projected ability to at least hit and preferably hit for power has been king of the philosophy for early-round picks. Even if the Rockies increase their emphasis on speed, that alone does not make a player a threat on the bases.

Traditionally, players rack up high steals in the lower level of the Minors but are less daring as they rise. Statistical analysis that devalued the steal and promoted a strategy based on avoiding outs stifled players as they rose.

The trick is finding players who don’t become steal-shy when they are caught. While new rules give them a greater chance at success, it still takes a certain spirit to want to steal. And the Rockies have been extreme in their station-to-station mentality. Their top two basestealers are Brenton Doyle (10) and Nolan Jones (five).

Neither began the season in the Majors.

Scouts are looking to detect a basestealer in a player’s soul. Gustafson and his staff have spent this week at the MLB Draft Combine in Phoenix, and some of the off-the-field meetings with players just be as valuable as the stopwatches.

“In the interview itself, some of the indicators you pick up on are, I would say, confidence being at the top,” said Gustafson, who spent much of the week in face-to-face meetings with prospective picks. “If they feel confident and they have the skillset to go along with that, then there's more of an aggressive nature to the way they play the game.

“It’s a thing that we look for when we're talking to him. 'How did you grow up? Did you play football? Did you play basketball? Did you run some competitive track?' There are a lot of different avenues which we can pursue when we're meeting with them.”