Mariners' home-field hopes shrink after Ray's rocky outing

SEATTLE -- Maybe the lingering effects from Friday’s epic celebration arrived a day later than anticipated, or perhaps Robbie Ray just simply didn’t have it on Sunday. Either way, the Mariners were never really in a 10-3 loss to Oakland that put their hopes of hosting next weekend’s AL Wild Card Series in peril.

Ray surrendered three homers and six runs (five earned), both tying season highs, in his final start before the postseason, and Seattle’s bats didn’t register a hit until Ty France singled with two outs in the sixth inning. With Oakland starter James Kaprielian rolling again after blanking the Mariners over seven innings 11 days prior, Seattle was kept at bay, which made the four-spot surrendered by reliever Penn Murfee in the ninth not matter much in the outcome.

Sunday’s loss, coupled with the Blue Jays’ win earlier, dropped Toronto’s magic number to two to secure the top AL Wild Card spot, and with it, host the best-of-three first round next weekend. That means any combination of Toronto victories and Seattle losses adding up to two would ensure that the Mariners begin the postseason on the road.

The Rays’ loss on Sunday in Houston ensured that the highest seed they could claim is the second AL Wild Card spot, meaning that the Mariners won’t travel to Tampa Bay for the first round. But the Rays could still pass Seattle before Wednesday’s regular-season finale, which would push the Mariners to the No. 6 seed and a matchup in Cleveland. The Mariners’ magic number is three to stave off the Rays for the second AL Wild Card spot, since Tampa Bay holds a 5-2 season-series tiebreaker.

Standings update: 87-71 (second AL Wild Card spot)

Games remaining: 4

AL Wild Card: The Blue Jays lead the Mariners by 2 1/2 games for first berth; the Mariners lead the Rays by 1 1/2 games for second berth

Seeding battle: Seattle owns the tiebreaker over Toronto (5-2 in the season series); Tampa Bay owns the tiebreaker over Seattle (5-2)

“We're at the point we almost got to win out, and we certainly do now,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said. “But I say all that, and our team has played really good baseball. Just today, we didn't really get it going offensively much at all.”

Beyond the blowout, making matters a little more concerning on Sunday was that Ray looked vulnerable against the last-place A’s after dominating them with a 1.82 ERA and opposing slash line of .202/.276/.337 (.613 OPS) over his first four starts against them.

Ray couldn’t quite bury his slider to righties, which led to a belt-high homer from Cristian Pache, and he struggled to keep his fastball enough off the plate, yielding a middle-in blast for Nick Allen on the four-seamer and a middle-middle shot to Shea Langeliers. Ray also walked three, all in the second inning, but he remarkably escaped that jam unscathed by inducing an inning-ending double play.

“They were definitely aggressive,” Ray said. “I’ve just got to be a little more fine in those situations and use their aggressiveness against them. … I was maybe just a tad too on the plate. It’s a game of inches, and you’ve just got to be better.”

For a fly-ball pitcher who specializes in swing-and-miss -- he racked up his 1,500th career strikeout in the first inning, becoming the second-fastest pitcher in MLB history to reach that mark -- it wasn’t the most encouraging final start, given what (and who) likely awaits. If the standings hold, that’d be the Blue Jays in what’d shape up to be a colossal return after he won the AL Cy Young Award last year with Toronto.

Beyond the great theater of said matchup, while the Blue Jays have MLB’s second lowest fly-ball and line-drive rate (46.7 percent), when they do get it in the air, it’s typically for damage, with a 13.2 percent home run rate on fly balls, fifth highest in the Majors. Toronto’s 198 homers this year are seventh most, and the club has a bevy of elite sluggers, such as George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

Ray would certainly carry some extra motivation of facing his former team if his lone start against them this season is an indication, when he surrendered just three hits and one run in a tense win on July 9.

Ray did not pitch during the Mariners’ trip to Toronto in May and was placed on the restricted list related to COVID-19 vaccination requirements, which have since been lifted in Canada. If the Mariners keep their rotation on turn, which they will through the end of the regular season, Ray would slot to pitch Game 2 on Saturday -- in Toronto or Cleveland. Ray held Cleveland scoreless in consecutive outings on Aug. 28 and Sept. 3 over 13 combined innings.

“This is one that just, flush it and move on,” Ray said. “I’m not going to let it take away from what I’ve been able to do this year.”