The rookie class driving a contender's postseason push

It seems like every time you turn around, a different Reds rookie is making headlines. It could be Elly De La Cruz breaking Statcast with his elite baserunning or incredible throwing arm. It could be Matt McLain coming through with clutch hits. It could be Spencer Steer stealing home, or Andrew Abbott throwing a gem … you get the point.

But a lot of teams throughout the course of MLB history have been very young. After all, a large part of the reasoning behind the September roster expansion is to allow teams the chance to test younger players in live MLB action. But the Reds aren’t a non-contender seeing what some young guys can do for next season -- they’re in the midst of very competitive races for both the NL Central title and an NL Wild Card spot.

This raises one natural question: Has a team this reliant on rookies ever been this good?

The statistical context

As it stands now, still less than a month to go in the regular season, the Reds have six rookies with at least 1 WAR (per FanGraphs): De La Cruz, McLain, Steer, Abbott, Brandon Williamson and Fernando Cruz. Buoyed by an impressive .864 OPS, McLain is the leader of that group with 3.2 fWAR, while Abbott ranks second with 2.0. How rare is this? In MLB history, only one team has ever made the postseason while having at least six rookies with 1 fWAR or more: the 2012 A’s, who had Yoenis Cespedes and a remarkable six rookie pitchers to reach that threshold. (Those A’s finished 94-68 and lost in the ALDS to the Tigers in five games.)

But while the 2012 A’s were defined by young pitching, this rookie crop in Cincinnati is all about balance: Three of the aforementioned six (McLain, De La Cruz, Steer) are position players, and the other three (Williamson, Abbott, Cruz) are pitchers. As such, these Reds could be the first playoff team to have at least three pitchers and at least three position players each with at least 1 fWAR. Entering Thursday, the Reds led MLB with a combined 10.5 fWAR from rookies in 2023, significantly ahead of the second-place Mariners (7.7).

If you’re not a fan of WAR, we can look at the long ball instead. The Reds already have three rookies with at least 10 home runs: Steer (20) and McLain (16) rank first and second on the team, and De La Cruz (11) is tied for seventh. It's the first time in franchise history that Cincinnati has at least three rookies with double-digit homers. Overall, rookies account for 54 Reds home runs in 2023, 10 more than any other team. The Reds have already tied their prior franchise record for rookie homers in a season, which was set in 2008 by a group led by Joey Votto (24) and Jay Bruce (21).

Additionally, only two prior playoff teams in MLB history have had at least three rookies with 10-plus home runs, in the 2015 Cubs (Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Jorge Soler) and 2007 D-backs (Chris Young, Mark Reynolds and Miguel Montero). If De La Cruz gets four more, and the Reds earn a playoff berth, that would make them the first playoff team with three 15-homer rookies.

Somehow, we’ve written this much, and we haven’t even gotten to the defining trait of the 2023 Reds: speed. The Cincinnati rookies have tons of it, and that goes beyond De La Cruz and his MLB-best 30.5 feet/second average sprint speed. De La Cruz (26), McLain (14) and Steer (12) each already have at least 10 steals. Combine this with their power-hitting prowess, and it turns out that, even with roughly a month to go, the 2023 Reds are already the first team in AL/NL history to have three rookies with 10-plus homers and 10-plus steals. In fact, only one postseason team has even had two such rookies: the 1975 Red Sox (Jim Rice and Fred Lynn), who lost to none other than the Reds in what still stands as MLB.com’s best-ever seven-game World Series.

How did this class come together?

The statistics are impressive, but what were the origins for such a deep and dominant rookie class?

As you might guess, the Draft is a good place to start -- specifically, the 2021 Draft. With their first pick (and 16th overall), the Reds selected McLain out of UCLA. At 53rd overall came Abbott, out of Virginia. Though these players aren’t currently rookies, strong drafting also brought the Reds talented younger players such as Hunter Greene (2017 Draft), Alexis Díaz (2015), Graham Ashcraft (2019), Tyler Stephenson (2015), Nick Senzel (2016), Nick Lodolo (2019) and Jonathan India (2018).

But the Reds also benefited from some shrewd trades of veteran players in recent years. Both Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were acquired when Cincinnati unloaded Tyler Mahle to the Twins at the 2022 Trade Deadline. Similarly, in March 2022, the Reds traded Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez to the Mariners, acquiring players including Williamson and Jake Fraley.

Additionally, the Reds have certainly done their homework to uncover some unheralded gems. Fernando Cruz, drafted way back in 2007 by the Royals as an infielder, fully converted to pitching in 2011 and spent years bouncing around various Minor League and international squads, before Reds scout Juan Silva spotted Cruz pitching in his native Puerto Rico in early 2022. After the club liked what it saw from the videos that Silva sent, Cincinnati signed him to a Minor League contract on Jan. 27, 2022, and he made his MLB debut as a 32-year-old that September.

Then, of course, there’s the crown jewel: De La Cruz. This feature story by MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon gives the full scoop on how the Reds came across the phenom. But to summarize, Reds personnel visited the Niche Baseball Academy in the Dominican Republic (De La Cruz’s home country) in 2018, intending to see a group of players led by a different unnamed shortstop. But despite De La Cruz being physically underdeveloped at the time, the Reds liked his competitiveness and ability to make the game look smooth, and as a result, Cincinnati signed the then-16-year-old for only a $65,000 bonus.

What comes next?

The first order of business for this star-studded group of rookies is to try to find a way into the playoffs. The Reds entered Thursday 5 1/2 games behind the Brewers for the division lead and a half-game behind Miami for the final NL Wild Card spot. FanGraphs has the Reds with a 22.9% chance of making the playoffs, making it a difficult but not impossible task.

Are there any new rookies who might step into the picture during that playoff hunt? Encarnacion-Strand is one to watch, as he was called up shortly after the All-Star break and has a .756 OPS since the start of August. Another one is 21-year-old third baseman Noelvi Marte, the Reds’ top-ranked prospect, who was acquired in last year’s Luis Castillo trade and made his MLB debut on Aug. 19, smacking his first career homer on Tuesday. On the other side of the ball, Daniel Duarte could see a bigger role as a middle reliever, holding a 4.07 ERA and .220 batting average allowed through 24 appearances so far.

The Cincinnati youth movement goes beyond the literal rookies, though. As of now, the team’s top 11 hitters (by plate appearances) and top five pitchers (by innings) are all in their age-29 season or younger. If that holds, and if the Reds make the playoffs, they would be only the third team in MLB history to make the playoffs with their top 10 hitters and top five pitchers all being under age 30, joining last year’s Guardians and the 1970 Reds led by the likes of Pete Rose and Johnny Bench.

When all is said and done, no matter how you add it up, this Reds rookie class has already blazed a very impressive trail. But if Cincinnati manages to rally and reach the postseason for the first time in a 162-game season since 2013, then its Class of 2023 will truly be one for the history books. And there’s no ceiling on what this group can bring to Cincinnati from there.