Offense key to Reds' success in '22

GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- Carrying a retooled roster that mixes new players, top prospects and familiar faces, the great mystery before the Reds is how quickly they can mesh together and compete in the NL Central. Could it happen as soon as 2022? Or will it take longer?

An abbreviated but wild Reds Spring Training opened with heavy turnover that saw several veteran players moved out and several new ones in. Gone are Sonny Gray, Eugenio Suárez, Jesse Winker and Amir Garrett. In are players like Tommy Pham, Hunter Greene and, eventually, Nick Lodolo and Mike Minor.

Just about every sector of the club has a different look, whether it’s the lineup, rotation, bench or bullpen.

Because of the lockout delaying the start of the season, the Reds will open the season on the road for only the third time in modern history and the first time since 1990.

The 2022 campaign begins on Thursday at Atlanta’s Truist Park against the defending World Series champions, the Braves. First pitch is at 8 p.m. ET and the game will be carried nationally on ESPN2.

What needs to go right?
The offense. The Reds will be challenged to produce runs, having lost some power but gained more speed and contact. Departures Winker, Suárez and Nick Castellanos, who left in free agency to sign with the Phillies, combined for 89 home runs, 250 RBIs and 243 runs in 2021.

There is still some thump in the 2022 lineup, however. Joey Votto is coming off a resurgent 36-homer, 99-RBI season. Reigning NL Rookie of the Year Award winner Jonathan India hit 21 homers last season and will be a catalyst from the leadoff spot. Tyler Stephenson, who flexed some power and had several clutch hits as a part-time catcher, is moving up to a regular role this season. The Reds sorely need Mike Moustakas to regain his form after two injury-filled seasons. If Moustakas can approach anything like the 35-homer season he had for the Brewers in 2019, Cincinnati will be in much better shape.

Adding Pham should help with right-handed power, while Nick Senzel and Jake Fraley can put the ball in play and be aggressive on the bases. Cincinnati was last in the Majors in steals in 2021 but manager David Bell is encouraging this group to be ready to run.

“That’s all we talk about, being aggressive on the bases,” Bell said. “We don’t want baserunners to be afraid to make mistakes with stealing bases or first to third or second to home. With our team speed not being one of our greatest strengths, we have to be great with our leads, knowing the opposition, secondary leads. Being able to do things that gain an extra step to take the extra base. Stealing bases is something a lot of guys can do.

“There’s no reason India can’t be a successful basestealer. He doesn’t have to steal 50. If he can have a high percentage, that adds a lot to our team, especially with where he hits in our lineup.”

The great unknown
The rotation. Ace Luis Castillo (right shoulder) and new acquisition Minor (left shoulder) are opening the season on the injured list. Bell is optimistically hoping for an April return for both pitchers, but neither has appeared yet in a Cactus League game.

That means the Reds will have a very young rotation, with three rookies and a second-year pitcher lined up behind Opening Day starter Tyler Mahle. Because of his triple-digit velocity, top prospect Hunter Greene will be appointment viewing every time he pitches. Greene and No. 2 prospect Lodolo enjoyed very solid springs to earn their spots.

Vladimir Gutierrez emerged last season with some very dependable starts before running out of gas down the stretch. Another rookie, lefty Reiver Sanmartin, is not a power pitcher but has deceptive offspeed pitches to irritate hitters. Sanmartin made two strong starts at the end of the 2021 season.

With only a 3 1/2-week camp and none of the current starting five having a track record of a high innings workload, there could be some shorter starts early on that will tax the bullpen. If Castillo returns healthy and hits the ground running, the Reds’ rotation could be more formidable than expected.

Team MVP will be ...
Votto. The first baseman has two guaranteed years remaining on his contract, and at age 38, he remains motivated to keep producing numbers like he had in 2021. Last season, he dazzled with a club-record seven straight games with a homer. According to Statcast, Votto’s barrel rate per plate appearance ranked ninth in MLB at 10.5 percent. His 92.9 mph average exit velocity was his highest since Statcast began tracking the metric in '15. Comfortable batting fourth, Votto has been willing to sacrifice his batting average to take more chances with pitchers and draw on his power. That could be big in carrying Cincinnati’s lineup.

Team Cy Young will be …
Even if Castillo misses the first month, he has shown the ability to get on a roll. Because of a slow start, he was 8-16 last year, pitching to a 3.98 ERA with 192 strikeouts and 187 2/3 innings in 33 starts overall.

In his first 11 starts, Castillo went 1-8 with a 7.22 ERA before he found a groove and had a 2.73 ERA over his final 22 outings. If he can start out strong and keep it up, Castillo and his changeup could be deadly for opposing hitters.

Bold prediction
India will be a 30-30 player in 2022. India has the power, and after moving to the leadoff spot on June 5 last season, he demonstrated that he can get on base from the leadoff spot. With a full year now behind him, he could really take flight, and become the first Reds player since Brandon Phillips in '07 to have 30 homers and 30 steals in a season.