Cincy setting sights on NL Wild Card spot

This story was excerpted from Mark Sheldon’s Reds Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

CINCINNATI -- After a complicated first half where the Reds' momentum had multiple starts and stops, coughs and sputters, what will the second half bring when play resumes on Friday?

That, too, seems complicated.

Despite a 47-50 record, Cincinnati is three games back from the third National League Wild Card spot. But the club would have to leapfrog three others -- the Pirates, Padres and Diamondbacks -- to catch the Mets. The Reds are also eight games behind the first-place Brewers while sitting in fourth place in the NL Central.

This is a team that has played shorthanded all season. Matt McLain has been out recovering from left shoulder surgery. Christian Encarnacion-Strand only played a struggling month-plus and is out for the year after right hand surgery. TJ Friedl has been on the injured list three times, as has starting pitcher Nick Lodolo.

On the other hand, this should be a better-performing club than it has been. The Reds and Rangers are the only two teams with losing records but a positive run differential. Cincinnati's expected win-loss, or Pythagorean record, is 53-44.

One place to look for why their actual record isn't better: one-run games. The Reds are 8-18 in those contests.

"I think there is room for us to play better, for sure," manager David Bell said. "I’ve liked that we’ve stayed true to who we are as a team and we’re in position to do everything that we set out to do. We’re not there now.”

One place to improve is cleaning up mental mistakes. The Reds are second in MLB with 37 outs on the bases, just behind the Cubs. While some of those include trying to go home from third base on contact plays, those aren't mental errors but strategic decisions. Mental mistakes on the bases are getting picked off, or trying to take an extra base that's not there.

Defensively, mental mistakes have included missing the cutoff man on relays to let opponents take extra bases and not knowing how many outs there are. And while these snafus don't always show up in the stats, they do show up elsewhere -- especially in one-run losses.

Look no further than June 28 at St. Louis. On a popup to short center field, Elly De La Cruz ran back on the ball and made the catch instead of giving way to center fielder Stuart Fairchild running in. That allowed speedy Michael Siani to tag up and score from third base on a sacrifice fly. It was the game's only run in a 1-0 Reds loss.

“Of course, we want to be perfect," Bell said. "A big part of that perfection is playing free, playing aggressive, understanding the situation, being focused. To get where we’re going, being locked in and dialed in on every pitch, it’s everything. We’re not going to be perfect though. But striving for that and when things don’t go exactly the way we want them to, staying tough and staying strong and not being affected by that, learning from it and being dialed into that next pitch, that’s baseball.”

Here is a further look ahead at the second half for the Reds:

Second-half goal: Make the playoffs
But for that goal to remain viable, the Reds will first need to avoid becoming Trade Deadline sellers. That happens by opening their second half strong during a three-city road trip to Washington, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Despite all of Cincinnati's sometimes mind-boggling inconsistencies and mistakes in the first half, the club is still near a .500 record and contending for an NL Wild Card berth because nobody has been able to run away with it.

Likely Trade Deadline strategy: Wait as long as possible
Because of Cincinnati's current situation, president of baseball operations Nick Krall and the front office remain in wait-and-see mode before deciding whether to buy or sell. The team's performance on the next road trip will certainly help dictate which direction they choose. If the Reds become buyers, they have prospect depth to use as trade chips and they have a need for proven run producers. Selling would not mean a fire sale by any stretch since most of the club's core is young. But veteran players with short-term contacts could potentially be moved, including starting pitcher Frankie Montas, relievers Fernando Cruz, Lucas Sims, Nick Martinez, Brent Suter and Justin Wilson and perhaps even second baseman Jonathan India.

Key player: Elly De La Cruz
The 22-year-old first-time All-Star is easily on pace for a 25-homer, 70-steal season but has been prone to some mental mistakes in the field and on the bases during his second big league season. De La Cruz getting hot offensively and creating run-scoring opportunities for himself and the team would be a huge boost for the Reds. In wins this season, the switch-hitter is batting .315 with a 1.014 OPS and 11 homers. In losses, he is batting .198 with a .648 OPS and six homers.

Prospect to watch: RHP Connor Phillips
Ranked No. 5 in the organization, Phillips dropped out of the MLB Pipeline Top 100 overall amid a disastrous first half with Triple-A Louisville. The 23-year-old, who debuted in the big leagues with the Reds late last season, has a 10.11 ERA and 2.26 WHIP in 14 starts while averaging 7.9 walks per nine innings. In June, he was demoted all the way to the Arizona Complex League to reset himself and work on his pitches. Especially with the Reds’ big league starting depth getting tested by injuries, Cincinnati would love for Phillips to regain his footing and have a better second half.