This team can shake up the NL playoff race

The Reds are in a tough spot. They entered Tuesday 3 1/2 games behind the Padres for the second NL Wild Card spot and 5 1/2 back of the Brewers in the NL Central. Their path to the playoffs heavily depends on the teams in front of them hitting a snag, which is why FanGraphs gives them less than one-in-three odds of making the postseason. It’s not exactly ideal.

But the Reds occupy a unique position, in that they have the ability to bring late-season excitement to two different NL races that many assumed were over at the All-Star break.

They can fight their way into October, if they do well. But even if they can’t quite manage that, the Reds could create just the kind of chaos we love in a postseason race. Here’s why. (All stats are entering Tuesday's games).

1) They’re headed in the right direction

The Reds, admittedly, have more ground to gain. But they’ve made some pretty big strides. On May 29, they were at their lowest likelihood of making the playoffs (6%) with a 22-28 record. From that point through Monday, however, their 39-24 record was the fourth-best in baseball, behind only the Brewers, Giants, and Astros. That's put them in position to make this a serious race, especially with the Padres going a modest 31-30 over the same span.

It may be a tougher task for the Reds to catch the Brewers, but when it comes to the Wild Card, there’s an advantage to being in the NL Central. The Padres have the strongest remaining schedule in the NL, while the Reds have the weakest in all of baseball. The Padres have 19 games left to play with the teams they’re chasing in the West (10 against the Giants and nine against the Dodgers). The Reds play nine of their final 18 games against the Pirates, which could help them with a closing kick.

2) The top of the order is scary

The Reds can hit. They’re one of three teams in baseball with multiple starters batting .300 or above (Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos), and to be able to throw those two -- plus rookie Jonathan India -- at a starter before he’s settled in is almost cruel.

Winker is leading the NL in doubles and total bases, crushing both fastballs (.583 slugging) and secondary pitches (.519) and giving opposing pitchers little time to establish anything. Case in point, Winker is slashing .367/.436/.644 in the first inning while typically batting second.

After Winker in the lineup comes Castellanos, who, when he’s hot, is an absolute force. Those hot streaks persist, too -- you might remember the 21 doubles and 16 home runs he hit in 51 games after joining the Cubs in 2019. He’s been hampered in recent weeks by a sprained right wrist, and his bat definitely quieted down leading up to his IL stint, though it’s unclear when exactly the injury started to bother him. But even considering that he’s batting .197 in 16 games since July 1, he’s still at .320 on the season. He was just that hot for the first three months. Castellanos hit seven home runs in April, and followed with a .409/.476/.667 line in May. Assuming he’s healthy down the stretch, he’ll have every opportunity to recapture that brilliance.

And then there’s India, the rookie second baseman who's been a surprise addition to the conversation. India has taken over the leadoff spot, in part because he can run (86th-percentile sprint speed), but he’s not wasted there. Since June, the quality of his contact has improved dramatically, with his hard-hit rate jumping from 32.3% through the end of May to 42.9% since. That’s resulted in a dramatic increase in his production, as he’s hitting .313/.440/.522 since June 1 with 17 doubles and 10 home runs, making him one of four NL players with an OBP over .400 for the season.

3) Vintage Votto is making an appearance

When you hit home runs in seven consecutive games, you deserve your own category.

We’re 11 years removed from Votto’s NL MVP campaign (a season in which the Reds ended a 15-year playoff drought), but now he's turning back the clock. Even as his production slowed down in the latter half of his career, Votto never stopped being good at what made him so valuable. He gets on base. That’s his thing.

In 2021, though, he’s traded in that ultra-patient approach for extra aggression, and it’s paying dividends. He’s whiffing a lot more than we’re accustomed to, sure, but he’s also had the second-largest increase in his hard-hit rate from 2020, a boost of about 16 percentage points. More than half of his batted balls have an exit velocity of 95 mph or more. He’s mashing fastballs. His expected slugging percentage is .586. Simply put, we’re seeing Votto hit at an elite level again, and that’s huge for Cincinnati.

4) They have just enough starting pitching

They aren’t Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, but the Reds have something pretty solid in Wade Miley, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo.

Gray’s been inconsistent, but he still misses bats and generates soft contact. His issues can also be traced in part to some bad luck, with his expected ERA almost a full run lower than his actual ERA. Mahle came back to Earth after his incredible April, but in the last month or so, things are looking better, including a 10-strikeout gem in his last outing. And not to be outdone, Miley threw a no-hitter in May. While that feat took some good fortune, it’s not all about luck. It’s remarkably difficult to barrel up any of Miley’s pitches since he made the full transition from a four-seamer to a cutter, and he's given the Reds a 2.75 ERA this season.

Maybe most significantly there’s Castillo, who started the season pitching so poorly you might have forgotten he’d been well above average since he showed up in 2017. The 7.22 ERA he was carrying through May has plummeted to 2.75 since, despite a rough outing Monday at Cleveland. Castillo, like Mahle, has benefitted from throwing fewer sliders, but his fastball velocity has also increased by about 2 mph since April (to 97.5), which certainly helps in getting the ball past Major League hitters. As long as Monday wasn't the start of a new trend, the Reds' rotation should be in good shape for the home stretch.

5) They addressed their biggest weakness

If there’s a glaring flaw with the Reds roster, it’s the bullpen. Of the regulars, the lowest ERA belongs to Sean Doolittle at 4.08. Amir Garrett’s shaky performance has had him drifting in and out of the closer role, with his ninth-inning duties sometimes falling to Heath Hembree. Overall, the unit ranks in the bottom five in the Majors in both ERA and FIP.

But while the Reds had a relatively quiet Trade Deadline, every move they did make was made with the bullpen in mind. Reinforcements arrived, in the form of Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson from the Yankees and Mychal Givens from the Rockies.

One could argue Cessa was the Yankees’ most consistent reliever in the first half. His 2.70 ERA looks miniscule in his new bullpen, but potentially more exciting is his 0.4 HR/9 rate. If nothing else, the Reds have a steady new arm in Cessa, and one who’s accustomed to pitching in hitter-friendly ballparks. Wilson, on the other hand, had been going through a rough year in the Bronx. But things went pretty smoothly in the lefty's time with the Mets from 2019-’20, and Wilson is a veteran with a long track record who always seems to bounce back. And, not for nothing, he’s allowed only one run over six appearances to begin his stint in Cincinnati. Givens is also off to a strong start with his new club and offers a track record of consistent success in tough environments, having pitched in the AL East with the Orioles and at Coors Field with the Rockies. Plus, a pitcher with a funky delivery is never a bad thing to have.

If that new-look bullpen comes together to back up the Reds' solid rotation and dynamic lineup, the gap between Cincinnati and a playoff spot could continue to shrink. And if that's the case, the NL playoff chase will prove to be even more hotly contested than anticipated.