BOS-NYY, Aug. 18: Odds, Preview, Prediction
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Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds
Red Sox Odds: +104
Yankees Odds: -122
Over/Under: 10
Time: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: MLB.TV
Odds as of Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET and via FanDuel NJ.
On July 6, the Yankees were 10.5 games behind the Red Sox in the AL East standings. With the sweep of yesterday’s doubleheader, New York has passed Boston in the standings and currently occupies a Wild Card spot for the first time since early May.
The Yankees have been the hottest team in the league to climb back into playoff position, going 22-9 since the All-Star break -- the best record in the league over that stretch.
Boston on the other hand, has been in a bit of a free fall, going just 14-17 since the break. New York is 12-4 in August while the Red Sox have gone 6-9.
Yankees fans have had an exciting, yet stressful, couple of weeks. Despite the success of this team, they certainly haven’t made it easy and have had a flair for the dramatic.
New York has had 68 games decided by just one or two runs the season -- the most in the league. 16 of their last 22 games have been decided by two runs or fewer, and the Yanks have gone 14-2 in those games.
Will New York be able to complete the series sweep against Boston on Wednesday, or will all these close games finally catch up to them?
Boston Red Sox
Boston will turn to Nick Pivetta (RHP) to avoid the sweep, although he has had an up-and-down season. Pivetta is 9-5 with a 4.20 ERA and has an xERA even lower at 3.77. Opponents have a .313 xwOBA against him on the year.
The start of the year was terrific for Pivetta, and it looked like the Red Sox fleeced the Phillies for him. He started 3-0 with a 2.81 ERA through his first five starts. He was 8-0 in Boston before he suffered his first loss. The next three months were a struggle as Pivetta posted a 5.05 ERA from May through the end of July.
The good news is, Pivetta’s ERA is just 2.16 during August, and he has tossed back-to-back excellent starts. Pivetta has an excellent curveball and his xERA, xBA, xwOBA and K% all rank in the top third of the league.
The one area has struggled the most is with his control, and no team walks more frequently than the Yankees. He has also had some home run trouble -- another area the Bronx Bombers can make you pay.
Despite the Red Sox falling down the standings, it really hasn’t been the offense’s fault. They have been near the top of the leaderboards in most offensive categories all season. Over the last 30 days, they rank third in wOBA and batting average and sixth in wRC+.
The big guns of Xander Bogaerts and J.D Martinez have really cooled off after their torrid starts, each batting hitting below .275 over the last month. However, Rafael Devers, Enrique Hernández and Alex Verdugo have been solid and have carried this offense for stretches.
Bogaerts and Martinez have started to get going over the last week, and if this team wants to make the playoffs, it’s clear their offense will need to carry them there.
New York Yankees
The Yankees made some terrific trade deadline moves with the acquisitions of Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo. However, Andrew Heaney (LHP) has struggled. When New York traded for Heaney, the lefty held a 5.27 ERA in 18 starts with the Angels.
Heaney has allowed at least four runs in each start with New York, including getting tagged for seven runs and causing some damage to the cornfields of Iowa in the Field of Dreams game.
The long ball has been a big issue for Heaney, as his 1.98 HR/9 rate is the sixth highest in the league among qualified pitchers. He has allowed eight home runs in just three games with the Yankees.
When you think about the Yankees, you typically think about the power in their lineup, but it really hasn’t been the offense responsible for their recent success. Over the last 30 days they rank just 17th in wOBA and 12th in wRC+. New York has gotten it done with patience at the plate, leading the league in BB%.
While overall the offense has just been middle of the road, the two most important bats in that lineup have been fantastic. Over the last two weeks, Aaron Judge is batting .327 with a 1.055 OPS and five runs, and DJ LeMahieu is batting .328.
The Yankees have dealt with a ton of injuries, setting a franchise record with injury list stints this season. They lost Gleyber Torres right as he was starting to heat up, but all Tyler Wade has done as his replacement is bat .480 during the month of August.
Red Sox-Yankees Pick
Neither one of these starting pitchers can really be trusted, and both of these lineups have had success against them in the past. The Yankees have a career .365 wOBA against Pivetta and the Red Sox have a .389 wOBA against Heaney.
If you are looking for a player prop, Martinez is 3-for-6 with 2 home runs against Heaney and Bogaerts is 7-for-13 in his career. Luke Voit has owned the Red Sox to a career .351 average with a 1.084 OPS, 11 home runs and 24 RBIs in 35 career games against Boston.
Over the last two weeks, these offenses sit fourth and eighth in runs. They both rank in the top 10 of the league in wOBA and wRC+.
This is the greatest rivalry in sports, and the heat has been turned up with a playoff position on the line. The Yankees are playing with swagger and confidence, and it is time for the Red Sox to start playing with desperation.
I think both offenses will come out strong here and be able to get to these starting pitchers. My favorite play here is to take the first five innings total over 5.5 at -110 or better.
Pick: First Five Innings over 5.5 (-110)