Series win vs. KC boosts Boston's postseason odds
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Odds up to date through games of Aug. 7.
The Boston Red Sox have firmly positioned themselves in the playoff race as the 2024 MLB regular season enters its final stretch.
After a road series win over the Kansas City Royals this week, the Red Sox are 1 1/2 games back of the Royals for the final Wild Card spot and two games behind the No. 5 seed in the six-team American League playoff bracket.
It's crucial to note that Boston holds the head-to-head tiebreaker, having won four of the six matchups against Kansas City. This could be a deciding factor in their playoff chances, especially with no 163rd game to determine a tiebreaker.
As a result of their crucial series victory, the Red Sox's playoff odds have significantly improved. At the BetMGM online sportsbook, they are +105 to notch a postseason berth, indicating an implied probability of 48.78%.
For comparison, Boston’s playoff odds were closer to +140 at BetMGM entering its series against Kansas City. The Red Sox were +260 to make the playoffs in the preseason, giving them an implied probability of 27.78%.
Based on FanGraphs’ current projections, the Red Sox have a 44.4% chance of notching their first postseason berth since 2021. That’s an improvement from Sunday’s projection of 37.5% and a preseason forecast of 22.9%.
FanGraphs’ rest-of-season projections have the Red Sox finishing with an 86-76 record, just one game behind the Royals’ 87-75 clip.
Every win could matter over these final two months, and the Red Sox started on the right foot in Kansas City. They will now host the Houston Astros (another playoff contender) for a weekend series.
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