How might Boston's roster shape up this offseason?
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This story was excerpted from Ian Browne’s Red Sox Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
With the World Series winding down this week, the Hot Stove season will soon be underway.
That is when the Red Sox will be able to start constructing their roster for the 2023 season.
You surely have many questions heading into the offseason. This week, we have a primer which should answer several of those questions.
Which players are free agents, or could end up being free agents?
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts (has opt-out), designated hitter J.D. Martinez, right-handers Michael Wacha and Nathan Eovaldi, as well as left-handers Rich Hill and Matt Strahm.
Bogaerts has three years left on his contract, but he is all but certain to exercise his opt-out clause and become a free agent. He must do so within three days of the end of the World Series.
Are any of Boston’s pending free agents expected to receive qualifying offers, and what is the deadline for that?
Unless he signs an extension with Boston first, Bogaerts will get a qualifying offer. That ensures that if the Red Sox lose Bogaerts to another team, they will receive Draft compensation.
Wacha is probably the only other player on the free-agent list the Sox would consider extending a qualifying offer to. All teams must make qualifying offers to eligible players by 5 p.m. ET on the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series.
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Which free agents are the Red Sox most determined to re-sign?
Bogaerts tops the list. Wacha was the best acquisition that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom made last season, and the club would like to have him back in the rotation for 2023 and beyond.
Which players have options, what are the dollar figures and impact on payroll, and when does it need to be decided upon?
Outfielder Tommy Pham, who was inconsistent after being acquired from the Reds on Aug. 1, has a $12 million mutual option. It seems more likely he will become a free agent. The deadline for this is also within five days of the end of the World Series.
Lefty James Paxton was poised to come back from Tommy John surgery in September, but he suffered a Grade 2 left lat strain during his first Minor League rehab start that prevented him from throwing a pitch for Boston in 2022. That leaves Paxton and the Red Sox with some interesting decisions to make for a pitcher who has thrown 21 2/3 innings since the end of the 2019 season. Paxton has a $4 million player option. The Red Sox hold a dual club option on him for the 2023 and '24 seasons that would pay him $13 million annually. The sides need to decide on these options within five days of the end of the World Series.
Who might be a non-tender candidate, and when does the club have to make that decision?
The non-tender deadline is Nov. 18. Righty reliever Ryan Brasier, who avoided arbitration last year by signing a $1.4 million deal, struggled for much of the 2022 season.
Who needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter to avoid the Rule 5 Draft?
The one lock is that five-tool stud Ceddanne Rafaela will be added to the 40-man roster, which will protect the club’s No. 3 prospect for the Rule 5 Draft. Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy, Eddinson Paulino, Wikelman Gonzalez, Brainer Bonaci, Enmanuel Valdez, Christian Koss and Wilyer Abreu are other Top 30 prospects who would need to be added to remain protected.
The Sox currently have 39 players on their 40-man roster and five players on the 60-day injured list who need to be added back to the roster by Nov. 15. All free agents automatically come off the roster following the World Series, which will free up some of the logjam.
What kind of help do they need and will they be active in free agency?
The Red Sox will be aggressive in free agency and trade markets this winter as they look to upgrade their bullpen with some more proven studs. The rotation is also in flux, with Wacha, Eovaldi and Hill eligible for free agency. The Sox will also look for a starting catcher.
Whom might they target?
There are many front-line pitchers who appear set to hit the market, including starters Carlos Rodón and Jacob deGrom. The potential free-agent list also includes Edwin Díaz and Kenley Jansen, two of the best closers in the game. As far as the catching situation goes, Christian Vázquez is a free agent. It would certainly be a feel-good story if the Sox brought him back just months after trading him. Mike Zunino, someone Bloom is very familiar with from the Rays, will be a free agent. So, too, will Willson Contreras, a lifetime Cubbie who has belted 20-plus homers in three of the last four seasons.