Here's the Rays' path to victory vs. Astros

HOUSTON -- Yandy Díaz smacked a leadoff homer in the first. Avisaíl García hit a two-run blast in the second. Díaz added a second solo shot in the third. All three of those early homers that put the Rays on the path to a 5-1 win over the A’s in the American League Wild Card Game on Wednesday came on four-seam fastballs in the upper-third of the strike zone.

If you want a road map for how to beat Justin Verlander and/or Gerrit Cole at Minute Maid Park in the first two games of the AL Division Series that begins Friday afternoon, there it is. Toppling one of the AL’s prime Cy Young candidates -- and, in the process, stealing home-field advantage and flipping the script in the best-of-five in which the Rays enter as obvious underdogs -- requires feasting on elevated fastballs.

Game	Date	Result	Highlights
Gm 1	Oct. 4	HOU 6, TB 2	Watch
Gm 2	Oct. 5	HOU 3, TB 1	Watch
Gm 3	Oct. 7	TB 10, HOU 3	Watch
Gm 4	Oct. 8	TB 4, HOU 1	Watch
Gm 5	Oct. 10	HOU 6, TB 1	Watch

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Of course, that’s easier said than done for several reasons, beginning with the velocity of the pitches in play – the fastballs struck by Díaz and García against A’s lefty Sean Manaea ranged from 90.1 to 91.8 mph.

“I wish that was kind of equal to the 98 that [Verlander and Cole] are throwing,” Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola said with a smile. “But it was nice to see them cover those pitches, for sure. It breeds confidence.”

The Rays might actually have an advantage over the Astros in the realm of protecting late leads. Their pitching staff, in general, suppressed the long ball better than any other in baseball this season, and, ergo, could neutralize the Astros’ explosive attack. (Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell will start Games 1 and 2, respectively.) The Rays have the defense, athleticism and versatility to make this a closer matchup than it might appear on paper.

But in a short series such as this, you’re not going to beat Houston without beating one -- or both – its top two starters, Game 1 starter Verlander and Game 2 starter Cole. Teams that go down 0-2 in the best-of-five have a less-than-inspiring history, so we’ll cross the Zack Greinke bridge when we come to it, in Tropicana Field for Game 3.

And about the only way to beat Cole and Verlander is to take them deep.

OK, so maybe that sounds a little bit like Montgomery Burns in “The Simpsons” baseball episode (“You, Strawberry! Hit a home run!”). But dingers, for better or worse, guide the way to postseason victory in today’s game. Since 2015, the team that outhomers the other wins 80 percent of the time in this tournament. The Rays gave us a taste of that with what turned out to be a four-homer night against the A’s.

If Verlander and Cole are human in any area, it’s long-ball prevention. Verlander served up 1.45 homers per nine innings, ranking 49th among 61 qualified starters. Cole’s rate of 1.23 per nine was middle of the pack, 34th out of 61.

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Can a Rays team accustomed to accruing its runs in other ways -- Tampa Bay ranked 21st among the 30 teams in homers, and its rate of 44 percent of runs generated by the long ball ranked 17th -- do serious dinger damage here? This, too, is easier said than done. But Verlander and Cole took their performances to another level with the Astros by attacking the top of the zone with four-seamers, and the Rays have shown an ability to go up and get it this season. Their expected slugging percentage, based on quality of contact, on four-seamers in the upper-third of the strike zone was .484 -- the fourth-best mark in baseball.

“They tend to like to throw that high fastball because they can,” outfielder Tommy Pham said. “Verlander and Cole are pumping 95 to 100, so that’s a tough pitch to hit at that velocity. We’re going to have to do a better job of getting on top of that pitch and putting it in play and not chasing balls in the dirt or below the strike zone.”

The Rays faced Verlander on Aug. 27 and Cole on Aug. 28, with mixed results. Verlander held them to four hits in 5 1/3 scoreless innings, but Cole allowed four runs on six hits, including a Ji-Man Choi homer, in 6 2/3 innings.

Familiarity won’t matter much against two starters who have demonstrated an elite ability to make adjustments within seasons and within starts. But the Rays enter Game 1 with the knowledge that, while they’re not well-equipped to win any Home Run Derbies, a little bit of power could go a long way in these two games.

“You always want to get a mistake, but these guys don’t make ’em,” Mottola said. “So you’ve got to understand that you’ve got to grind and pass it to the next guy. And maybe one of those short walls comes into play and we’ve got Glasnow doing what he does. It’s not going to take much from either side. That’s what’s encouraging. We know we don’t have to score five or six runs. If we score one or two, we’ve got a chance.”