3 Thoughts: Archer, pitching plans, up next

Free agents are signing, trades are happening, and three trucks recently rumbled away from the Trop, full of equipment bound for Charlotte Sports Park. Yes, it’s almost time for Spring Training.

Before we start talking about pitchers and catchers reporting, though, let’s look at one Rays reunion, what it might say about their pitching plans for this season and what could come next.

Here are three things I’m thinking as the offseason winds down and spring draws near.

1. If healthy, Chris Archer is a worthwhile bet to bounce back.
Travel with me, my friends, on a journey through the MLB.com archives.

On Aug. 14, 2018, a young(er) reporter by the name of Adam Berry spoke to Archer in the visitors' clubhouse at Target Field and wrote a story with the headline “Archer expanding arsenal with 2-seamer, curve.” The short version is this: Just before he was traded to the Pirates, Archer added/reintroduced a sinker and curveball to his repertoire, thinking that diversifying his pitch mix would make him more effective than he’d been near the end of his time with the Rays.

Fast-forward to July 18, 2019, when an intrepid then-Pirates beat reporter -- apparently determined to display his Tampa Bay bona fides by dropping a James Shields/David Price reference in the opening paragraph -- wrote the following line: “Archer came to realize that, while trying to improve over the past 12 months, he got away from what made him most effective in Tampa Bay.” Once again, the short version: Archer ditched his sinker and went back to throwing more four-seam fastballs and sliders.

Archer tried to be something he wasn’t and needed time to learn that lesson.

“Pitching to contact’s not my thing. It’s just not,” Archer said then. “I can be extremely efficient with what I have as long as I am consistent and harness what I have.”

It’s not a huge sample size, but indeed, Archer was better from that point on. He held opponents to a .244/.309/.394 slash line while striking out 55 and walking 14 in 41 innings over his final eight starts that season. His ERA was still an inflated 4.61 during that stretch, but his BABIP (.333), FIP (3.29) and xFIP (3.64) suggest he ran into some bad luck.

Speaking of bad luck, Archer didn’t get much of a chance to prove how those changes would carry over. His 2019 season ended early due to right shoulder inflammation, and his '20 season never began due to neurogenic thoracic outlet syndrome. A remarkably healthy pitcher throughout his time with the Rays, Archer was held back in Pittsburgh by injuries -- a groin strain, hernia surgery, right thumb inflammation, then the shoulder issue and TOS.

With Archer now set to rejoin the Rays, pending the completion of a physical, the last sentence should be a greater concern than anything else that happened while he was with the Pirates. When healthy, the worst Archer ever did was pitch 200 innings with big strikeout numbers and a roughly league-average ERA. When injured, obviously, he wasn’t the same. He's looked and felt good this offseason, by all accounts, but the track record of pitchers returning from TOS isn't exactly spotless.

If the Rays somehow get the best version of Archer back, they’ll have one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League. But even if they don’t rediscover the AL Cy Young Award candidate of 2015, simply adding a healthy Archer should provide value to their pitching staff. That applies off the mound, too, as he’s still the same energetic teammate and hard-working clubhouse leader he was before the trade.

2. The Rays could rethink conventional pitching roles … again.
One question on my mind since last season was shortened to 60 games: How are pitchers going to respond to a full workload this season, more than doubling the innings they threw a year ago?

Around the league, there’s been talk of six-man rotations, abbreviated outings, piggyback pitchers, the significance of optionable rotation depth and so on -- whatever it takes to minimize the risk of injury and, ideally, keep pitchers fresh for October.

Along those lines, I thought Rays pregame/postgame radio host Neil Solondz hit on something interesting in writing about the reported Archer signing, summarized by this line: “The Rays staff will deploy the team’s pitchers to best maximize the team’s 1,450 or so innings and give the club the best chance to win each night.”

In other words, the Rays probably won’t ask Archer or Michael Wacha to replace the 194 2/3 innings and 3.05 ERA that Charlie Morton gave them in 2019. It’d be tough to put that on any one pitcher. Frankly, it would’ve been tough to ask that of Morton himself if they’d picked up his option, considering he threw 58 innings last season and postseason combined.

But what if we think about it the way Neil mentioned? Could they get that overall production (or something close to it) in the aggregate from the combination of Archer and Aaron Slegers? Or Wacha and Shane McClanahan? Or Josh Fleming and Luis Patiño? Maybe, especially if they’re limiting the number of times each of those pitchers must face an opposing lineup. Because one thing the Rays have working for them, as they’ve shown the last few years, is depth.

They’ll have so many Major League-caliber starting options who should be ready to pitch on Opening Day: Tyler Glasnow, Ryan Yarbrough, Archer, Wacha, Fleming, McClanahan, Patiño and perhaps another acquisition in the coming weeks. Add Brent Honeywell Jr. and Brendan McKay to the mix, assuming good health, and it’d be an even 10 options. Joe Ryan, whenever he’s ready, could make it 11. And you don’t need me to remind you about the Rays’ knack for building deep bullpens.

You don’t have to go as far as abandoning all tradition and using the Brewers’ preferred label of “out-getters,” but just consider the number of innings the team needs and the most effective way of deploying pitchers to cover them.

Designing a pitching plan based around capitalizing on that depth, whether it’s through tandem starts or different scheduling or whatever form it might take, would require creative thinking and a ton of buy-in from the pitchers involved. But this is the team that popularized the opener, right? Could they buck tradition again to face the challenges of this season?

3. There’s probably still more to come.
It seemed like Rays fans really got their hopes up on Wednesday when a few tweets -- some from valid sources, others very much not based in reality -- connected the team to free-agent slugger Marcell Ozuna. The speculation got so far out of hand that Ozuna felt the need to record a video denying the fake report that he’d signed a four-year, $88 million deal.

My understanding of the situation was that the Rays had interest in Ozuna, in the sense that they express interest in every good player who could make their team better, but a lot would have had to change -- like his asking price, which he earned the right to set -- for that interest to lead him to sign with the team. It seemed like someone else was bound to step up and pay up for the 30-year-old coming off the season he just had, and sure enough, the Braves signed him on Friday night to a four-year, $64 million contract with a club option for a fifth season.

Either way, it feels like the Rays aren’t done tinkering with their roster. Just look at the various rumors linking them to potential moves over the last week and a handful of recent transactions.

WEEI said the Rays have shown “significant interest” in the veteran lefty Rich Hill, another high-upside/limited-workload starter who’d be a fascinating addition to the pitching plan described above. MLB Network insider Jon Heyman mentioned the Rays among the teams “thought to have some interest” in former Braves All-Star right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, who is now set to sign with the Rangers. The Athletic reported that the Reds, who desperately need a shortstop, inquired about Willy Adames earlier this winter. The A’s, another team with a glaring need at shortstop, acquired a veteran to fill that spot on Saturday by trading for former All-Star Elvis Andrus.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Rays at least acquire more bulk-innings depth, whether it’s someone established like Hill or a bounce-back candidate more likely to accept a Minor League “prove-it” deal, and perhaps another left-handed relief option to replace Aaron Loup. They’ll have a clearer path to make such moves in a few weeks, when they can create space on their 40-man roster by moving injured/rehabbing players to the 60-day injured list.