Why Rays believe offense is bound to improve

This story was excerpted from the Rays Beat newsletter, with Joe Trezza filling in for Adam Berry. To read the full newsletter, click here_. And_ subscribe_ _to get it regularly in your inbox.

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- Though the Rays won’t hold their first official full-squad workout until Monday, many of the team’s position players have already arrived at Disney’s Wide World of Sports complex, with Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco among the club’s early-reporting regulars.

What hasn’t arrived is a splashy new face, the kind of offensive upgrade the Rays deemed their top priority this offseason … and then did not acquire. They still could make a move by the end of camp, either via free agency or trade. But if they don’t, the Rays will enter 2023 with more or less the same lineup that ranked 21st in MLB in runs scored last season and went quiet come October.

They are comfortable with that.

"I think we have the talent, one through nine, to be a really difficult lineup to face,” general manager Peter Bendix said.

Here are a few reasons why the Rays, even simply by standing pat, believe they’re bound to improve offensively in 2023.

1. The bounce-back candidates
The Rays certainly would’ve scored more runs last year if not for the injuries to Franco and Brandon Lowe, who combined for only 148 games and 3.6 WAR. Franco is healthy, trimmer and motivated to put last year’s leg issues behind him, while Lowe is expected to have a normal camp after his homer output plummeted from 39 to eight amid back issues. For two of the Rays' most important hitters, simply being in the lineup every day should make a world of difference.

“The guys coming back from injuries are definitely a part of it,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander said. “We’re hoping for some better health.”

2. The rule changes
The Rays believe they’re positioned to benefit from MLB’s rule changes for 2023 if they alter the speed and style of the game as designed. Bigger bases and limits on pitcher “engagements” with the rubber, in particular, should impact the running game -- encouraging teams to take more chances and, in effect, steal more bases.

That sounds like good news to the Rays, who were among baseball’s best teams at stealing from 2017-21, but who slumped in that area last year, when they led the league in outs on the bases. Their projected lineup features speed from one through nine, and one of the game’s fastest players in Jose Siri.

“I am confident that the impact of speed and athleticism is likely going to play up,” Bendix said. “These things are all tailored toward athletic players who are fast. We have a lot of athletic players who are fast.”

3. The Josh Lowe factor
What the Rays were searching for on the open market was a left-handed-hitting outfielder with power and speed to complement the righty-heavy group of Arozarena, Siri, Manuel Margot and Harold Ramírez. They might already have one on the roster, though. Enter: Josh Lowe, a former top prospect who struggled to replicate his Triple-A success as a rookie last season.

This spring provides Lowe with another opportunity, and it makes him one of the more interesting players to watch in Rays camp. If he doesn’t take advantage of it, the 25-year-old could find himself back at Triple-A, with little left to prove at the level. But if he impresses in camp, wins a job and never looks back, that would go a long way toward solving one of Tampa Bay’s biggest problems.

“Our job security would be better if he did that, so go Josh,” Neander said. “There were signs [last year] that Josh was starting to figure things out. … Sitting on that for a few months in the offseason, he's going to be ready. We believe in the ability but we believe in the person more.”