Rays' fading playoff hopes hinge on tough road trip

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

BALTIMORE -- On Sunday, manager Kevin Cash said the Rays needed to “get hotter than hot” to keep themselves in the American League Wild Card picture down the stretch. Splitting series would no longer cut it. Even winning two out of three would only go so far.

Of course, the Rays went out and split their first series of September, dropping their first and last games against the Twins while winning the two in between. That left them right where they started the four-game set: two games under .500, albeit now at 69-71, with long and unrealistic odds of reaching the postseason.

As of Friday morning, FanGraphs gave the Rays a 1.1% chance to reach the postseason. Baseball-Reference put their playoff odds at 2.5%. They’re 6 1/2 games behind the Royals, who occupy the third and final AL Wild Card spot heading into a big series against the Twins. Also of note: There are three teams -- Detroit, Seattle and Boston -- between Tampa Bay and Kansas City.

“It’s difficult. We knew we ... would have given ourselves a better chance had we found a way to win the series or ultimately sweep it,” Cash told reporters after Thursday’s 4-3 defeat at Tropicana Field. “We knew we weren’t going to do that after [losing] Game 1. And then [Thursday], it felt we were one swing of the bat [away] multiple times and just came up a little short.”

That is, in a way, the story of the Rays’ season -- and not just because they’ve spent the whole year around .500.

Their pitching staff ranks 13th in the Majors with a 3.95 ERA and fourth (3.41 ERA) since the All-Star break. But they rank 28th in baseball in runs scored (545 in 140 games), and their .675 OPS as a team is the Majors’ sixth-worst mark. They’re tied with the White Sox (who are now 32-109) for the Majors’ lowest batting average with runners in scoring position.

And now, here come the Orioles, Phillies and Guardians. Yes, the Rays are set to face three first-place teams during the 10-day road trip starting Friday night at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

“We need to win right now. Everyone needs to come together,” outfielder Jonny DeLuca said Thursday. “Baseball’s hard, and it’s the time of the year where we need to get it together. We’re going to try to do that. Obviously, on this road trip we’re facing some pretty good teams, so hopefully we can pull out some victories.”

“No doubt that we’ve known for over a month now that these three teams are very, very talented,” Cash said Thursday morning. “We’ve got to play good baseball.”

The Rays haven’t fared well against the Orioles this season, going 2-8 (with a pair of one-run victories) while being outscored by 27 runs (52-25) in those 10 matchups. Then it’s on to Citizens Bank Park to see the Phillies, who are tied with the Dodgers for the best record (84-56) in MLB.

There’s no reprieve after that, either, as Tampa Bay will draw a Cleveland club with a four-game lead in the AL Central.

“We’re not out of it, and I think we know that,” said starter Shane Baz, who will pitch Friday’s series opener. “It’s fun to play meaningful games against good teams, so I think it’ll be a good road trip.”

If the Rays can’t beat the odds, they could still play spoiler down the stretch considering how many playoff hopefuls they will face over the final three weeks of the season. And they have plenty to play for individually, given how many players have something to prove as they approach the end of a largely disappointing regular season.

If nothing else, a strong finish could generate some hope for better things to come.

“I think everyone in here wants to make the playoffs and be able to have a winning record,” DeLuca said. “Yeah, the individual stats and how you finish does matter, and it’s important. I think every guy in here wants to play good and wants to finish well.”