What we learned from the Rays' unexpected 2024 season

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry's Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

BOSTON -- The past five years, playing into October was the expectation for the Rays. They were one of four teams to qualify for the postseason each year from 2019-23, along with the Astros, Braves and Dodgers, and they hoped to make it six straight this season.

That didn’t happen, as Tampa Bay was officially eliminated from the playoff race on Wednesday night at Comerica Park. Thursday’s defeat also ended the club’s streak of winning seasons at six. The Rays are in an unfamiliar position to finish this season, one they hope to avoid next year.

“It was the expectation this year,” manager Kevin Cash said. “We're proud of past accomplishments, but we’ve got to move on from them a little bit now to make sure that we can find a way to go on another exciting run where we're playing way more meaningful games right now and then into postseason baseball.”

Defining moment: From June 18 to Aug. 4, the Rays went 10-1-2 during a stretch of 13 series. Yet that span only took Tampa Bay from 34-39, a season-low five games below .500, to 57-54, matching a season-high three games above that mark. Winning that many series in less than two months should have created some separation for the Rays, yet it was the perfect representation of the way they spent all season hovering around the break-even point. And it was near the end of that run that the front office elected to deal veterans Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, Jason Adam and Isaac Paredes within the span of one weekend, transactions that signaled where Tampa Bay was heading.

What we learned: While observers might have expected the Rays to take a step back after the Trade Deadline, their run prevention actually got better in the second half of the season. That should mean they won’t have to wait long before bouncing back into postseason contention. But it also became clear the club must improve its offense to reach that point. Consider that the Rays entered the final weekend of the season with a 55-15 (.786) record when scoring at least four runs, compared to 23-66 (.258) when scoring three or fewer. Tampa Bay doesn’t need to have the league’s best lineup to be more competitive, but it needs to be more productive than it was this year.

Best development: The Rays are understandably excited about the way their 2025 rotation is shaping up, with Shane McClanahan set to rejoin veterans Jeffrey Springs and Zack Littell and young arms Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot and Taj Bradley and potentially Drew Rasmussen. They are also extremely encouraged about the potential of their bullpen. Closer Pete Fairbanks finished the season on the injured list with a right lat strain, but his absence -- and a few other injuries and trades -- created bigger opportunities for younger arms like Edwin Uceta, Kevin Kelly, Manuel Rodríguez, Hunter Bigge and Mason Montgomery, all of whom have shown big-time stuff and a lot of upside.

Area for improvement: It’s the offense, obviously. After 159 games, only the 120-loss White Sox (493) have scored fewer runs than the Rays (594). Tampa Bay’s 3.74 runs per game this season would be the lowest mark in franchise history, just below the 2014 team’s 3.78 average. As a team, the Rays have hit .230/.302/.368. More alarming? Their performance with runners in scoring position, which could be historically feeble. Entering the final weekend, they’ve hit just .210 with RISP, which is the worst in the Majors and would be tied with the Mets for the second-lowest mark by any team since play-by-play data became available in 1969. (The ‘69 Padres’ .200 mark is the lowest in that timeframe.) With a few more timely hits, this season could have played out quite differently.

On the rise: Junior Caminero is no longer a top prospect, having graduated from that status recently, but the rookie fits the bill here. The 21-year-old’s performance has been uneven, as he’s hit .243/.299/.414 with five homers, nine doubles, 15 RBIs and 36 strikeouts. But he has clearly shown his immense potential at the plate, ripping triple-digit exit velocities all over the place with his incredible raw power and bat speed, and he has impressed the Rays with his work at third base and his desire to get better. Tampa Bay needs a big bat in the heart of the order, and if he keeps improving, Caminero could be exactly that.

Team MVP: Infielder Brandon Lowe missed some time earlier this season due to a right oblique strain, and he’s played through a finger injury and a broken toe at other points this year, but he’s overcome all that to offer a reminder of what his impact bat can do. Lowe is hitting .242/.310/.476 with a team-leading 21 homers and .786 OPS to go along with 19 doubles and 58 RBIs in 105 games. Lowe has continued to make his way up various club-record leaderboards, cementing his place in franchise history, and he received his second Don Zimmer Most Valuable Player Award from the Tampa Bay chapter of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.