Fresh faces, new rules: What to watch at Rays camp

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

TAMPA, Fla. -- First, a programming note: This is probably the last time you’ll see my byline for about a month. For good reason! My wife and I welcomed our first child last weekend, a healthy baby girl. Getting to spend the next four weeks together at home has us even more excited than we are tired -- and we are (very) tired.

MLB.com will still have daily coverage from Rays camp, with my friend and former Spring Training roommate Joe Trezza taking the first leg at Disney’s ESPN Wide World of Sports complex as pitchers and catchers report in the coming days.

I’m thrilled about all the family time this next month will bring. After that, here are the top three storylines I’m looking forward to catching up on and following when I report back to Tropicana Field:

1. How is the lineup coming together?

Don’t get me wrong: I’m obviously intrigued by the Rays’ potentially dominant rotation and deep bullpen, as well as the team’s run-prevention foundation, and want to see both in action. But good pitchers looking good in camp would be more “dog bites man” than a storyline, whereas this broad question accounts for a few more specific ones.

• How healthy are Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe? We probably wouldn’t have talked as much about how the Rays needed to improve their lineup this offseason if Franco and Lowe combined for more than 148 games and 3.6 WAR last year. (In 2021, Lowe played 149 games himself and Franco recorded 3.5 WAR … in 70 games.) Their ability to stay in the lineup alongside Yandy Díaz and Randy Arozarena will go a long way toward determining the Rays’ success this year.

• Will the Rays make any moves before Opening Day? Last spring, they acquired Harold Ramírez and swapped Austin Meadows for Isaac Paredes. There are still free agents available and potential trades to consider. Tampa Bay could create some 40-man roster flexibility for additions early in camp by shifting players with long-term injuries to the 60-day IL.

• Should we believe in the bounce-back/breakthrough candidates the Rays are counting on? It’d be huge if Josh Lowe could be nearly as productive in the Majors as he has been in Triple-A. Or if Jonathan Aranda does the same. Or if Taylor Walls combines his Minor League on-base ability with his spectacular infield glove. Or if Jose Siri more consistently translates his ridiculous athleticism into offensive production. You get the point. We’ll get to see how they look this spring.

2. Changing strategies for changing rules?

MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince answered questions about MLB’s rule changes for the 2023 season. They will be in effect for all of Spring Training, giving teams time to adjust in game settings before it all becomes real on Opening Day.

The pitch timer should really pick up the pace of play. The accompanying rule limiting pitchers’ “disengagements” should also have an interesting impact on the running game, especially in combination with the incremental gains that come with larger bases. Could Arozarena steal 40? (He’ll certainly try.) What does it mean for the value of speedsters like, say, Siri or Vidal Bruján? And how important might Christian Bethancourt’s arm behind the plate be?

The Rays essentially pioneered the modern use of defensive shifts more than a decade ago, but they actually used heavy shifts less than average last year and in 2020 and were middle of the pack in '21.

Still, the new limitations -- the defensive team must have a minimum of four players on the infield, with at least two infielders completely on either side of second base -- will affect some of their hitters, notably Brandon Lowe and the lefty-hitting side of Francisco Mejía. It should underscore the importance of rangy infielders like Walls, too.

It will be interesting to see if anyone employs more daring strategies in pursuit of new advantages under these rules. A famously innovative team like the Rays, perhaps?

3. How do the kids look?

The Rays again have a deep farm system both in terms of talent and how it’s distributed from Triple-A to the complex leagues. That has made it fun to put together their Top 30 Prospects list for MLB Pipeline, but it’s more fun to see those prospects work toward the big leagues.

There will be a group of them nearly ready for the Majors in big league camp, headlined by infielder Curtis Mead, starter Taj Bradley and rehabbing reliever Colby White. It wouldn’t be a shock if all three contribute in the Majors at some point this summer.

And it’ll be hard to ignore the potentially fast-rising duo of first baseman Kyle Manzardo and starter Mason Montgomery, the club’s reigning Minor League Player and Pitcher of the Year. Reliever Evan Reifert also showed big league bullpen-type stuff during an absurdly dominant Arizona Fall League run. How far away might they be?