How Rays could approach two looming deadlines

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ST. PETERSBURG -- This may not be the most exciting part of the offseason, but it’s an important week for the Rays.

The next few days include several key deadlines, and deadlines drive transactions -- even if they’re not massive trades or anything to do with Shohei Ohtani. The Rays are likely to be active leading up to both deadlines and, in fact, might already be making moves by the time you’re reading this.

Here is what’s at play before each deadline.

Rule 5 Draft protection
Today at 6 p.m. ET is the deadline for clubs to add players to the 40-man roster to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

Seemingly every offseason presents a tricky 40-man roster crunch for the Rays. This winter will be no different. Balancing the present and future is one part of it, of course, but so is the reality that they use nearly their entire roster during the season.

The Rays can’t really afford to waste roster spots, in other words, and theirs became full last Friday after the intriguing waiver claim of versatile lefty Tyler Alexander.

The Rays already did their most important work ahead of this deadline when they called up top prospect Junior Caminero and promoted lefty Jacob Lopez (No. 27) near the end of the season.

But seven of the Rays’ Top 30 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, are eligible for this year’s Rule 5 Draft: infielder Willy Vasquez (No. 10), right-hander Cole Wilcox (No. 11), lefty Ian Seymour (No. 15), outfielder/DH Heriberto Hernandez (No. 18), outfielder Kameron Misner (No. 21), right-hander Yoniel Curet (No. 22) and corner infielder Austin Shenton (No. 26).

The emergence of Shenton as upper-level depth (along with the presence of Jonathan Aranda and rising prospect Xavier Isaac) was one reason the Rays were willing to trade Kyle Manzardo for Aaron Civale, and he’s coming off an excellent season. Misner has shown power and speed, albeit with alarming strikeout rates. Vasquez is still years away from being MLB-ready. MLB Pipeline listed Hernandez as Tampa Bay's toughest call.

It’s more complicated on the pitching front. There aren’t any top-end prospects banging down the door, so the Rays might be more protective of the promising arms they do have, hoping at least one will take a step forward.

Wilcox didn’t have a great season at Double-A Montgomery, but he’s plenty talented, closing in on the Majors and the last man standing from Tampa Bay’s return for Blake Snell. Seymour seemed like he was on the fast track before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022. Curet has yet to reach Double-A, but he was their Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Right-hander Anthony Molina, unranked, is another one to consider.

Keep in mind: The Rays have discovered value at this deadline not only by adding players to their roster, but by trading some they don’t have room to protect for younger prospects.

In 2019, Cristopher Sánchez was dealt for Curtis Mead. Two years ago, they turned Tobias Myers into Caminero. Last November, they moved Rule 5-eligible prospect Xavier Edwards to the Marlins and received right-handers Santiago Suarez (No. 14) and Marcus Johnson (No. 16).

Non-tender deadline
Friday at 8 p.m. ET is the deadline for teams to tender a contract for next season to unsigned players under club control. (This is better known as the “non-tender deadline.”) Non-tendered players become free agents.

The Rays handled some of their business on this front when they parted with Christian Bethancourt, Jalen Beeks, Josh Fleming, Cole Sulser and Raimel Tapia to clear space for players coming off the 60-day injured list. They still have 12 arbitration-eligible players remaining, however, and their payroll is projected to be in the $120 million range without any further additions.

The Rays could swing a few deals or cut some non-tender candidates before today’s deadline to make room for their eligible prospects, as they did last year with Ryan Yarbrough (designated for assignment) and JT Chargois (traded). But most of their arb-eligible players are expected to play key roles next year or, in the case of injured ace Shane McClanahan, down the road.

With few traditional non-tender options, this might be the time to move an arb-eligible trade candidate like Harold Ramírez.