Build for now or future? Rays choose both

Competitive windows can typically only be propped open for so long. So a team coming off a World Series defeat might often speak with a sense of urgency about pushing all in on the upcoming season. Similarly, a team with the top-ranked farm system in baseball might generally spend the spring gazing years ahead in search of a brighter future.

Meet the 2021 Tampa Bay Rays, a team that can do both.

The defending American League champions have a roster ready to finish what they started in October, despite losing some notable parts of that club. On the Major League side, the Rays' goal is nothing short of winning a World Series.

The Rays also have a Minor League system overflowing with young talent, with some potential impact prospects ready to contribute this season. In the grand scheme of things, Tampa Bay's goal is to contend year in and year out for the foreseeable future.

“It's unique. It's rare,” Chris Archer said. “I don't think any other organization is as equipped for now and the future as this team.”

As the Rays prepare for this season with one eye on the present and another on the future, here is an overview of several key topics and players.

What needs to go right?
Tampa Bay has an enviable amount of talent and depth on its roster and in the system, but it won’t be an easy road in the tough AL East. Since the franchise’s turnaround began in 2008, the Rays have been built on pitching and defense. So that’s a good place to start when thinking about what must happen for them to succeed again.

Tampa Bay needs its pitching to deliver quality and quantity, with the starter/bulk-innings pitchers giving the team a chance to win every day and a huge supply of capable bullpen arms in the Majors and upper Minors. And the Rays will need to play their typical brand of strong defense, from Mike Zunino behind the plate to the Willy Adames-led infield and the Kevin Kiermaier-led outfield.

But without more established starters like Charlie Morton and Blake Snell on board, it’s also critical that the Rays’ lineup displays an ability to win games. That means full and productive seasons from Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, Yandy Díaz and Randy Arozarena, among others, and consistent production from the likes of Ji-Man Choi, Manuel Margot and their catching tandem.

Great unknown
What will the Rays’ pitching staff look like a month into the season? Three months? By Sept. 1? It feels like anyone’s guess, as they will not be immune to the industry-wide uncertainty regarding how pitchers will handle the transition from an abbreviated 60-game schedule back to a 162-game season. Tampa Bay is already moving forward without one huge part of the group, with Nick Anderson likely to be sidelined for several months.

To begin the year, the Rays are relying on few sure things in the starting staff. Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough are set to return, and they will be joined by veterans Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and Archer. Wacha is a bounce-back candidate, Hill is 41 years old and Archer hasn’t pitched since 2019 due to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Tampa Bay will likely try to monitor their workload to keep them fresh for the long haul, and the club will no doubt call upon its depth to help at some point.

That means the Rays will probably ask quite a bit of young pitchers like Shane McClanahan and Luis Patiño, top 100 prospects with little experience in the Majors. And they’ll rely on versatile multi-inning arms like Collin McHugh, Trevor Richards and Josh Fleming to bridge the gap to their back-end relievers in the meantime. Their talent and depth leaves them well-equipped to handle the unknown, but it will still be a challenge.

Team MVP will be …
Think Lowe might be a little driven heading into the year? Early in Spring Training, he went out of his way to say it’d “really be nice to be better than 53. I think that’s a pretty good goal for myself.” And what, exactly, did he mean by 53? That would be his ranking in MLB Network’s Top 100 Players Right Now.

So, yes, Lowe wants to establish himself as one of the game’s best players this year.

The second baseman was the Rays’ most valuable player during the 2020 regular season, posting 2.4 WAR while hitting .269/.362/.554 with 14 homers in 56 games. There’s no getting around the fact that Lowe struggled in the postseason, although he homered three times in the World Series, and that further motivated Lowe this offseason. He’s taking every available avenue to improve, even dropping a couple of bunt singles this spring with an eye on proving he can beat defensive shifts if necessary.

This could very well be Meadows if he truly recaptures his 2019 form. It could be Arozarena if he’s half the player he was in October. It could be Glasnow, following in the footsteps of pitchers like Morton and Snell, who’ve been the Rays’ best overall players in some recent years. Based on the strength of their defense alone, it could be Adames or Kiermaier. With Tampa Bay, it’s usually a team-wide effort.

Team Cy Young will be …
It’s probably not what you’d call a hot take to project that the Rays’ Opening Day starter will be their best pitcher. But this feels like it could be the year Glasnow puts it all together over the course of a full, healthy season.

Glasnow is already a strikeout machine with unhittable stuff. He cut way back on his walk rate in 2019. Glasnow was victimized by home runs last year, and by some accounts, the ball could fly a little less this season. He’s so athletic that he might be able to handle a bigger workload than other starters despite last year’s abbreviated schedule.

Combine Glasnow’s stuff with his growth on and off the mound, including the development of an interesting third pitch in his slider, and it’s safe to say that expectations will be sky high. If he lives up to them, he’ll also be in the AL Cy Young Award conversation.

Bold prediction
Arozarena and the Rays’ farm system will live up to the hype.

Will Arozarena maintain the torrid pace he set as a surprising postseason legend last year? Will MLB top prospect Wander Franco debut early in the summer and instantly become one of the game’s best hitters? Will McClanahan and Patiño immediately fulfill their top-of-the-rotation potential? Probably not. That’s a lot to ask, and in Arozarena’s case, it might be mathematically impossible.

But there is so much near-ready talent atop the Rays’ Top 30 Prospects list, and a lot of those players are going to make an impact this season. Arozarena will naturally come back to earth a bit, but even a slight fall will leave him in the stratosphere. Franco could change the dynamic of Tampa Bay’s lineup at some point. McClanahan and Patiño will unleash their electric stuff in important innings. Vidal Bruján will soon be ready to fill a hole in the infield or outfield, if needed, and Josh Lowe is likely their next man up in the outfield.

Brendan McKay, Taylor Walls, Joe Ryan and Kevin Padlo could also contribute this year. And here’s another prediction: Brent Honeywell Jr. will make his long-awaited debut and get big outs for the Rays.