Ranking the six division races, starting with the most intriguing one

Within the next week, we will reach the quarter point of the 2024 MLB season. Can you believe that? It feels like we just got started, and yet already, we’re nearly through the first turn.

There are various theories about when you can start paying real attention to the standings: Some say Memorial Day, some say Flag Day, some even say the All-Star break. But we’re going to pay attention to them right now. After all: You can be sure each team is doing so.

• MLB standings

Thus, we’re taking a look today at each of the six division chases and ranking them by how exciting it looks like they’re going to be. Some races are tightly packed; some have a team already pulling away. Let’s forecast how each is shaping up.

• Power Rankings: Resounding sweep shakes up top spot

1) American League East

Heading into this season, the general consensus was that it was a shame that someone would have to finish last in this division. (There was, in fact, a school of thought that the presumed last-place team, the Red Sox, could conceivably be the favorite in the AL Central.) That remains the case, as the Blue Jays, even with their rough start, sure don’t look the part of your typical last-place team.

But while the Red Sox have been a pleasant surprise, the real reason this division is so exciting right now has been the play of the Yankees, a team that looked to be in a make-or-break situation heading into the year. Despite Gerrit Cole being hurt and Aaron Judge not playing much like Aaron Judge just yet, the Yankees have been one of the best teams in baseball and may be poised to run stride-for-stride with the defending-division-champion Orioles all season.

Those two atop the AL East are exciting enough, but with the suddenly pitching-rich Red Sox, the bound-to-make-some-sort-of-comeback Blue Jays and the now-stabilizing Rays behind them, this remains, top to bottom, the best division in baseball. There’s still a non-zero possibility that it produces four playoff teams.

2) American League Central

Remember when this division was dull? When everyone thought you’d only need, like, 84 wins to come out on top of it? Those days are over. What a fun division this has turned out to be! As usual, the Guardians -- who have stormed out of the gate with one of the best records in the whole sport -- and the sausage-fueled Twins are atop the AL Central.

But the difference this time is that there are two other teams with winning records, two teams who have been building up their young rosters to compete for a while now and are finally reaping the benefits. First there are the Royals, who have ridden a top-heavy lineup and a surprisingly deep rotation to their best start in years. And they’re followed by the Tigers who, despite a recent skid, have a Cy Young contender in Tarik Skubal and a stable of young hitters who are coming of age.

Odds are that there won’t actually be four teams over .500 in this division by the end of the year, but there’s some real life and energy here for the first time in a while. The more, the merrier.

3) National League East

How do you like your division races? Do you like four teams similar in quality in a rock fight for the crown? Or do you like two fantastic teams, teams that would win almost any other division in baseball, battling tooth and nail to the very end, quite possibly with both of them winning 100 games?

The Braves and Phillies are both undeniable World Series contenders, and they’re head and shoulders above the rest of this division. It will be fascinating to see what moves Philadelphia and Atlanta will make down the stretch to make sure they end up in the top spot. Unfortunately for the rest of us, the last game they play against each other is on Sept. 1.

4) American League West

This division has been turned upside down by the Astros’ early-season stumble. This was the team that won six of the last seven division titles (with the only one they didn’t win being the truncated 2020 season). The Astros are 11 games under .500 -- something that, before this season, they hadn’t been since May 22, 2016 -- and look completely lost.

So how has this division reacted to the Astros, at last, leaving the door wide open for them? It is full of teams that seem awfully reluctant to walk through it. The Angels, now without Mike Trout yet again, have fallen behind the Astros. The A’s have been a great story but were still hitting only .215 as a team entering Tuesday and have the 25th-best rotation ERA (4.53) in the Majors, so the fun seems unlikely to last.

That leaves the Rangers and Mariners, who have played well enough recently to create some distance between themselves and the .500 mark but have hardly been world beaters. The Rangers are running out of pitchers, and while the Mariners have plenty of those, their offense is hitting .222 and Julio Rodríguez still hasn’t gotten going. It is possible that the rest of the AL West will regret not burying the Astros when it had the chance.

5) National League Central

Like in the AL and NL East, two teams have separated themselves from the pack here. But unlike in those divisions, this has happened less because those two teams (the Cubs and Brewers) are particularly flawless and more because everyone below them is struggling.

The Pirates have faded after their hot start. The Reds have lost six in a row and left us all wondering when all that young talent is going to translate into victories. And the Cardinals, goodness, the Cardinals are all kinds of a mess right now. (They have the second-fewest home runs in baseball, the third-fewest hits and the third-fewest runs scored. And remember, the offense was supposed to be their strength). It’s possible the Pirates, Reds and Cardinals rebound, but for now, this looks like the Cubs and Brewers, two good-but-not-great teams, spending the summer trying to stay within arm’s length of each other.

6) National League West

The Padres, as always under the stewardship of AJ Preller, are doing everything they can to crawl their way into the playoff picture. The D-backs are reversing their World Series season (in which they were outscored) by having a losing record despite outscoring their opponents. The Giants’ offseason moves haven’t paid off just yet. And the Rockies are already 15 1/2 games out of first place.

Maybe one or two of those teams gets hot and gets back in this race. But no one is catching the Dodgers, who already have a 6 1/2-game lead in this division. The Dodgers are going to spend the last month setting up their playoff rotation, resting their starters and occasionally napping. They will have earned it.