Which big award is the toughest call? We rank 'em

Major League Baseball has announced the three finalists in each of its four BBWAA awards: MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year. We’ll be finding out the winners of those awards this week, but it’s fascinating to look at each category, and the finalists, and see just how difficult it is to choose between them. Some categories have obvious winners. Some categories, there’s no real right answer. Some categories, you just throw your hands up in the air.

The 2023 award winners will be announced this week on MLB Network, on the following days at 6 p.m. ET.

• Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year: Monday, Nov. 13
• Manager of the Year: Tuesday, Nov. 14
• Cy Young: Wednesday, Nov. 15
• Most Valuable Player: Thursday, Nov. 16

In a week, we’ll have definitive answers. For now, though, it’s fun to speculate. So let’s rank! Here’s a look at each category, ranked based on what I think is the easiest call to toughest call. (Reminder: Votes were due before the playoffs began, so October performance has no basis on the results.)

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1. National League Rookie of the Year
Finalists: Corbin Carroll, OF, ARI; James Outman, OF, LAD; Kodai Senga, RHP, NYM

Outman and Senga were both important cogs in everything both the Dodgers and the Mets did. But you could make an argument that Carroll should have been an MVP finalist, let alone a Rookie of the Year finalist. (He will likely end up in the top five of MVP voting.) He put together the first 20-50 season by a rookie in MLB history. He led his team to the World Series. He has altered the entire direction of this franchise. He’s the easiest pick on the board.

2. American League MVP
Finalists: Shohei Ohtani, Angels; Corey Seager, Rangers; Marcus Semien, Rangers

Like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. two seasons ago, Seager put together a season that would be a worthy MVP case in just about any year he wasn’t facing a guy who was one of the best hitters in baseball and one of the best pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately for him (and for teammate Semien, the other finalist), he is facing that guy. Ohtani is about to head into free agency with a second MVP Award. Someday our grandkids are going to ask us what it was like to watch all of this.

3. American League Rookie of the Year
Finalists: Tanner Bibee, Guardians; Triston Casas, Red Sox; Gunnar Henderson, Orioles

Henderson was MLB Pipeline's No. 1 prospect in baseball heading into the season, but hey, that’s becoming old hat for Orioles prospects at this point. Henderson firmly established himself as the breakout star of a breakout team in 2023, leading all rookies in homers and extra-base hits and serving as the centerpiece of that lineup. Sometimes the Rookie of the Year Award goes to a player who had an incredible season, and sometimes it goes to someone who showed that they’ll be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. This year it’s going to someone who clearly did both.

4. American League Cy Young
Finalists: Gerrit Cole, Yankees; Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays; Sonny Gray, Twins

Cole’s best season might have been in 2019, when he led the AL with 326 strikeouts and a 2.50 ERA for the Astros. He finished second in Cy Young voting that year, to then-teammate Justin Verlander. Before this season, he had finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting six times, and in the top five five times. Both Gausman and Gray have good cases, but Cole not only was better than both of them, he is undeniably due. This would be the Yankees' first Cy Young winner since Roger Clemens in 2001, by the way.

5. National League Cy Young
Finalists: Zac Gallen, D-backs; Blake Snell, Padres; Logan Webb, Giants

This was a category that bounced around between leading candidates all season, and at times both Justin Steele and Marcus Stroman looked like real possible winners for the Cubs. Neither of them -- nor Spencer Strider, another potential winner at one point -- made the three finalists, and while they were all tight down the stretch, it certainly looks like Snell’s strong finish will probably be enough to get him over the hump, heading right into free agency. It’s a good reminder in these races: The finishing kick can make all the difference.

6. American League Manager of the Year
Finalists: Bruce Bochy, Rangers; Kevin Cash, Rays; Brandon Hyde, Orioles

The manager awards are always a little more difficult to pick between, if just because there are no obvious statistics to pore over like in the other categories. In many ways, you’re kind of just going off vibes. All three finalists had excellent vibes here, all taking their teams to the playoffs and finishing with better records than most had predicted them to have. Even though the votes are tabulated before the postseason, you still have to like Bochy’s chances here, taking a team that hadn’t made the playoffs in quite a while to 90 wins and a tie atop the AL West in his very first season. If he wins, he’ll have two fewer Manager of the Year wins than he has World Series rings. He’ll make that trade.

7. National League Manager of the Year
Finalists: Craig Counsell, Brewers; Skip Schumaker, Marlins; Brian Snitker, Braves

This one feels a little strange, now that Counsell has a chance to win for the Brewers even though he’s employed by the Cubs. But this one may be tougher to decide between the other two finalists. Schumaker got the Marlins into the playoffs for the first time in a full season in two decades. Meanwhile, Snitker piloted one of the best seasons in Braves’ history. And Counsell was excellent, too: That’s why everybody wanted him, after all.

8. National League MVP
Finalists: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves; Mookie Betts, Dodgers; Freddie Freeman, Dodgers

And then we come to the toughest call of all. No offense to Freeman, but this one’s clearly between Betts and Acuña. Acuña had the lead for most of the season, and it’s not like he collapsed down the stretch or anything. Did you see what he did this season? He had a 40-70 season! That’s insane! But Betts still had a higher WAR than he did, putting together the best year of his career since his historic MVP season of 2018 in Boston. These are two of baseball’s inner-tier superstars who had mind-bendingly great seasons. There is no wrong answer here. Whoever voters pick is correct.