The top lineups entering the season, ranked 1-10

FanGraphs’ preseason projection system last year gave the Orioles just a 1.3 percent chance of winning the American League East. MLB Network’s “Shredder” system recently did not have Ozzie Albies as a top 10 second baseman. An artificial intelligence model used by students at Johns Hopkins University crunched all the numbers after the 2023 season and predicted the AL MVP would be … Corey Seager, who fell only 30 first-place votes shy of unanimous winner Shohei Ohtani.

The point is that computers can be as fallible as humans when it comes to evaluating baseball. Wouldn’t you rather get mad at a real, live human?

That’s me, your annual sounding board/punching bag, as I take on the thankless, fruitless and often humiliating task of trying to rank the best lineups, rotations and bullpens going into the season.

Let’s begin the 2024 installment exercise today with the lineups. And remember, AI was not necessary to come up with these inaccurate guesses. I did them all by myself!

(Because everyday lineups are a thing of the past, these are merely representative lineups, so don’t get too hung up on the orders. In cases where a player is currently injured but can still reasonably be expected to play the bulk of the season, that player is included.)

1) Dodgers

1. Mookie Betts, SS
2. Shohei Ohtani, DH
3. Freddie Freeman, 1B
4. Will Smith, C
5. Max Muncy, 3B
6. Jason Heyward, RF
7. Teoscar Hernández, LF
8. James Outman, CF
9. Gavin Lux, 2B

The Braves were the best lineup on planet Earth last year, with a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) mark (125) equal to that of the 1927 Yankees. But it’s a new season, and this is Planet Paper, where we see that a Dodgers team that was pretty darn productive itself (116 wRC+, 906 runs, 249 homers, .340 team on-base percentage and .455 team slugging percentage) has only gotten better. The arrivals of Ohtani (who replaces the still-very-productive-but-also-significantly-older J.D. Martinez) and Hernández (who even in a down offensive year outperformed David Peralta, whom he is replacing in the Los Angeles outfield) are enough to put the Dodgers on top of this list.

2) Braves

1. Ronald Acuña Jr., RF
2. Ozzie Albies, 2B
3. Austin Riley, 3B
4. Matt Olson, 1B
5. Marcell Ozuna, DH
6. Sean Murphy, C
7. Jarred Kelenic, LF
8. Orlando Arcia, SS
9. Michael Harris II, CF

Again, the Braves might very well belong at No. 1 again. But it might be physically, scientifically and statistically impossible to match, let alone better, what they did at the plate last year, when they became the first team in history to slug .500 (actually, .501) as a team. That’s bananas. But yes, it should go without saying that Atlanta fields a devastating lineup, and a big X-factor this season is Kelenic attempting to reach his offensive ceiling in a new uniform. And hopefully Acuña’s knee does not become a lingering concern, because he’s the most electric player in MLB when healthy.

3) Astros

1. Jose Altuve, 2B
2. Yordan Alvarez, DH
3. Alex Bregman, 3B
4. Kyle Tucker, RF
5. José Abreu, 1B
6. Yainer Diaz, C
7. Chas McCormick, LF
8. Jeremy Peña, SS
9. Jake Meyers, CF

The Astros last year got only 204 combined games played out of Altuve and Alvarez, and free-agent acquisition Abreu had by far the worst season of his life. And yet, they still finished fifth in MLB in runs per game, scoring north of 800 for the fourth time in the past six full seasons. With (hopefully) better health -- and with Diaz and McCormick getting more consistent playing time -- Houston should remain a premier offensive force in Bregman’s walk year, once again punishing opponents with a special blend of power and plate discipline.

4) Rangers

1. Marcus Semien, 2B
2. Corey Seager, SS
3. Wyatt Langford, DH
4. Adolis García, RF
5. Evan Carter, LF
6. Josh Jung, 3B
7. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B
8. Jonah Heim, C
9. Leody Taveras, CF

We saw in October what happens when the Rangers get on a roll at the plate. They can be unstoppable. In the regular season, they had 26 games with 10 runs or more, and they had three more in the postseason en route to the franchise’s first title. Though cleanup man Mitch Garver departed in free agency, Texas possesses tons of upside in the form of postseason rookie sensation (and still rookie-eligible) Carter, 2023 first-round Draft pick Langford and its No. 6 prospect, Justin Foscue. (As of this writing, it’s unclear if Langford will be rostered on Opening Day, but we feel safe assuming he’ll see a lot of time in the bigs this season.) If Seager, Semien and García again perform like the stars they are, the Rangers remain relentless offensively.

5) Yankees

1. DJ LeMahieu, 3B
2. Juan Soto, RF
3. Aaron Judge, CF
4. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
5. Gleyber Torres, 2B
6. Giancarlo Stanton, DH
7. Alex Verdugo, LF
8. Jose Trevino, C
9. Anthony Volpe, SS

The Bronx Bummers of 2023 certainly don’t merit mention on this list. They ranked 25th in MLB in runs and, relatedly, 27th in OBP. But clearly, this lineup, which was entirely too Judge-centric a year ago, takes on a much different dimension with the addition of Soto. And the acquisition of Verdugo should also give the Yanks an OBP boost. Add in Rizzo being further removed from concussions issues, the continued growth of Volpe and the possibility of Jasson Domínguez again making his mark after he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and there’s enough here to foresee New York reasserting itself in the runs department. Big bonus points if LeMahieu and Stanton stay healthy and return to form.

6) Phillies

1. Kyle Schwarber, DH
2. Trea Turner, SS
3. Bryce Harper, 1B
4. Alec Bohm, 3B
5. J.T. Realmuto, C
6. Bryson Stott, 2B
7. Nick Castellanos, RF
8. Brandon Marsh, LF
9. Johan Rojas, CF

Though the Phillies' aggressiveness sometimes gets the best of them (they ranked 26th in MLB in chase rate last season and essentially swung themselves out of a National League Championship Series lead), when they're clicking, there might not be a more fun lineup in MLB. Because their chemistry is undeniable. With Harper now fully recovered from Tommy John surgery (though dealing with back stiffness this spring), Turner fully settled into this squad and youngsters Bohm, Stott and Marsh having all taken strides, the Phillies retain what it takes to be one of the most dynamic offenses in the game.

7) Orioles

1. Gunnar Henderson, SS
2. Adley Rutschman, C
3. Anthony Santander, RF
4. Ryan Mountcastle, 1B
5. Ryan O'Hearn, DH
6. Austin Hays, LF
7. Cedric Mullins, CF
8. Jackson Holliday, 2B
9. Jordan Westburg, 3B

The O’s ranked seventh in MLB in runs per game last season, and it somehow felt higher, simply because of the good vibes engendered by Henderson following in Rutschman’s footsteps as a rousing rookie, plus unexpected positives like O’Hearn’s production emerging. Baltimore actually was nothing special from a power perspective (ranking 17th in homers per game), but that could change as its core players continue to develop, and the O’s abilities to limit K’s and force the issue on the basepaths are separators. And, of course, the amount of burgeoning talent that should impact them this season -- Holliday, Westburg, Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, etc. -- is absurd.

8) Rays

1. Yandy Díaz, 1B
2. Brandon Lowe, 2B
3. Randy Arozarena, LF
4. Josh Lowe, RF
5. Jonathan Aranda, DH
6. Isaac Paredes, 3B
7. Jose Siri, CF
8. José Caballero, SS
9. René Pinto, C

Amazingly, last year, the Rays were third in MLB in average (.260), fourth in OBP (.331), fourth in slugging (.445) and second only to the mighty Braves in wRC+ (118). This, from a club that ranked 21st in runs per game and 25th in homers per game the previous year, without major turnover. If anything, there is more turnover this year, because the absence of shortstop Wander Franco does loom large enough to bump Tampa Bay down this particular list. But just because the Rays don’t have a bunch of household names doesn’t mean they can’t continue to produce. And they, too, have a lot of upside in Aranda and near-term prospects like Junior Caminero, Curtis Mead and Carson Williams.

9) Twins

1. Edouard Julien, 2B
2. Carlos Correa, SS
3. Royce Lewis, 3B
4. Max Kepler, RF
5. Byron Buxton, CF
6. Alex Kirilloff, DH
7. Carlos Santana, 1B
8. Matt Wallner, LF
9. Ryan Jeffers, C

The Twins were a pretty miserable offensive team for much of the first half last season, yet still they finished the year 10th in MLB in runs scored (778) and sixth in wRC+ (109). Given that the second-half pop was produced by burgeoning youngsters Lewis, Julien and Wallner, given that Correa and Buxton both have the potential to outperform their mediocre production from 2023 and given that Santana replacing Joey Gallo should help Minnesota reduce its strikeout totals, this club is in really good position to greatly surpass last year’s run total.

10) D-backs

1. Corbin Carroll, RF
2. Ketel Marte, 2B
3. Gabriel Moreno, C
4. Christian Walker, 1B
5. Joc Pederson, DH
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF
7. Eugenio Suárez, 3B
8. Alek Thomas, CF
9. Geraldo Perdomo, SS

Though the D-backs, fronted by the electric Carroll and a resurgent Marte, were a middle-of-the-pack offensive club in 2023 in terms of runs scored, it was a disciplined group (fourth-fewest strikeouts) that used its athleticism to make things happen on the basepaths (second in steals). Now, they’ve added some needed power from Suárez and Pederson, who lengthen a lineup that possesses upside as Moreno and Thomas mature and top prospect Jordan Lawlar potentially joins the fray.

Honorable mentions: If the Reds can overcome a rough spring that has featured setbacks for Matt McLain (shoulder), TJ Friedl (wrist) and Noelvi Marte (suspension), they belong. If Cody Bellinger’s resurgence is real, the Cubs belong. Toronto has to win our trust back, but if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. bounces back to an elite level, the Blue Jays belong. If Triston Casas and Jarren Duran build off their breakouts, the Red Sox belong. If Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado all have the All-Star-caliber years they’re capable of, the Padres belong. If Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado return to form, the Cardinals belong. If Julio Rodríguez has six months resembling his August 2023, the Mariners belong. If Francisco Álvarez breaks out, the Mets belong.

On and on we could go with the ifs.