Ranking division races for stretch run

The All-Star break is over, which means it’s time to get back down to business. We’ve got 2 1/2 months left in the season, and there are pennant races to decide. While the Wild Card chases will certainly take up a good chuck of many teams’ (and their fanbases’) emotional energy heading into the fall, the division races have their fair share of intrigue as well. After all, the Wild Card is great and all, but those division champion flags fly forever.

Sure, a few races seem a little bit sewn up, but we’ve seen over the years that collapses can happen. The point is that the standings are sure to look much different in October than they look right now.

Here’s a ranking of the most exciting division races, moving forward. Strap in: This is the fun part.

1. National League West

These rankings aren’t really about the Wild Card chases, but it certainly helps if you’ve got multiple teams good enough to try to win a division title or win a Wild Card spot. It’s why, say, neither one of the Central divisions are atop these rankings. Excluding the poor Rockies, the NL West has some extremely engaged competitors. The Padres, for all their struggles and disappointments, are hardly out of the chase here. Even at 8 1/2 games out in the division at the break, FanGraphs’ playoff odds had them with a 32.3% chance to sneak into the postseason. And they’re in fourth!

Just above them are the Giants, a team that has been terrific for a couple of months now and is waiting for any sort of slip-up from the two teams above them. And about those two teams:

The Dodgers have dealt with some devastating pitching injuries and keep plugging along. They are not the transcendent regular-season team we have seen the last few years but certainly good enough to win this division for the 10th time in the last 11 years. (A crazy stat, that.)

But the team that has elevated this division to the top of these rankings is clearly Arizona. The D-backs, behind NL Rookie of the Year Award shoo-in and MVP candidate Corbin Carroll, have been one of the best stories in baseball and went into the break as perhaps the least likely division leader on the board. Of course, that’s the thing: A rough final week of the first half dropped the D-backs into a tie with those Dodgers. A tie! We could see four NL West teams in the postseason this year, so whoever wins this division will have absolutely earned it.

2. American League East

That same principle -- multiple teams with clear paths to the postseason -- applies here, except to an even greater degree. The AL East has five teams with playoff aspirations, five teams with winning records, five fanbases that are very much invested in what their team is doing right now.

What’s most remarkable about the AL East is that the two teams we’re most used to seeing thrive in this division historically -- the Yankees and the Red Sox -- are tied for last place, chasing the Blue Jays, the Rays (still riding the high of their incredible start) and the upstart Orioles, who seem to call up a top-shelf prospect every week.

Even if you like New York, Boston or Toronto for the AL Wild Card, it’s tough to see how those teams catch Tampa Bay or Baltimore -- barring a miraculous, sudden comeback from Aaron Judge. That’s wild in its own right. Who saw those two teams setting the standard?

Whoever wins this division may end up having home-field advantage in the AL playoffs. And you absolutely can see this going all the way down to the last weekend.

3. American League West

Ask Rangers fans how they feel about the Astros. Even during an era when the Astros have been a team toward which many baseball fans love to direct their boos, the Rangers’ antipathy to their in-state rivals stands out. But these two teams are rarely great at the same time. They haven’t finished 1-2 in the standings since 2015. It sure seems to be setting up that way this year, though, with the Rangers’ offensive explosion (this lineup is downright terrifying) helping overcome the loss of Jacob deGrom to be one of the best teams in baseball.

The thing about the Astros, though, is that even when they’re not as overwhelming as they’ve been in years past, they’re still loaded with talent, and remarkably steady. Despite the Rangers’ incredible start, they haven’t been able to put much distance between themselves and the defending champs. Unfortunately, these teams only play each other three times over the final two months, so there’s going to be a ton of scoreboard watching. And don’t forget the Mariners and Angels, who, suffice it to say, have been pretty loaded up for this year as well and have much at stake over the next few months.

4. National League Central

This division has been roiled by two most unexpected developments: the emergence of the Reds -- who, most improbably, have become one of the most aesthetically pleasing teams in baseball -- and the collapse of the Cardinals, who could finish in last place for the first time since 1990. (Before that, they hadn’t finished last since _1918._) The Reds’ rotation issues make it unlikely that they’re going to run away with anything, but it’s not like the Brewers, the team right behind them in the standings, are any sort of complete ballclub, either.

And don’t put it past the Cubs to begin making a run in the second half. They’re the only team in the division with a positive run differential, and they may have fewer holes than any other club. It looks too late for the Pirates and Cardinals, but this division remains thrillingly up in the air. Well, maybe not thrillingly. But definitely up in the air.

5. American League Central

If you want to make the argument that there’s still time for the Tigers or even the White Sox to get back into this, go ahead, but you’ve got to squint pretty hard to make that case. This is a two-team race between the Twins and the Guardians, and hey, it may turn out that whichever team can make it over .500 by the end of the year gets to wear the division crown.

That might not be inspiring from the outside, but it sure will be for the team that ends up winning the AL Central ... and the No. 3 playoff seed (and home playoff series) that comes with it.

6. National League East

All right, so this is the only division race that feels over already. The face-melting tear the Braves went on in the month of June put so much distance between them and the rest of the division that some Braves fans are already calculating their magic number. (It was 64 at the end of the first half, by the way.)

It’s a little early for that, but an 8 1/2-game lead at the break is no joke. The real fun in this division, then, is going to come from watching the next three teams in line try to get into the playoffs via the NL Wild Card race. Both the Marlins and Phillies are in good position there.

And as woeful as the Mets have been for much of the season, they’re not out of this, either. But of all the teams in baseball, the one you can feel the most confident about seeing in October is these Braves. This is the division you’ll be paying the least attention to in September.