'Intentionality' key for Cards entering 2024 Draft

This story was excerpted from John Denton’s Cardinals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ST. LOUIS -- The last time the Cardinals picked in the top 10 of an MLB Draft, the year was 1998. Randy Flores, now St Louis' assistant GM/director of scouting, was in his second season of professional baseball while pitching for the Yankees’ Class A and High-A teams.

So, when Flores is asked what kind of nervousness and butterflies that he expects to feel on Sunday, when the Cards are tasked with landing a potential star player with the No. 7 pick, he legitimately does not know.

“We’ll see,” Flores said. “I think it is a different exercise going through this with our scouting discussions, because even though there’s no certainty at any spot, you are guessing at less of the puzzle at No. 7. My hope is that as the clock starts ticking, that the focus and conviction of the hours and months of work [that] our group has done leads to a stress level and excitement that matches the moment.”

For the record, the Cardinals selected outfielder J.D. Drew with the No. 5 pick in the '98 Draft. Drew played 597 games and hit 96 home runs over six seasons with the Cardinals from 1998-2003, but he is also remembered in St. Louis for two other things. He made his MLB debut on Sept. 8, 1998 -- the night Mark McGwire hit his then-MLB record 62nd homer. Drew was also part of the Dec. 13, 2003, trade with the Braves that sent Adam Wainwright to the Cardinals.

• Looking back at career of J.D. Drew

The Cardinals certainly hope to land an impactful player with the No. 7 pick on Sunday. They earned that lofty Draft positioning after going 71-91 in 2023, when they finished last in their division for the first time in 33 years.

The Cards actually got somewhat unlucky in MLB's first Draft lottery in December. They had the fifth-highest odds to land the No. 1 pick and dropped to No. 7. The Guardians (No. 9 to No. 1) and the rival Reds (No. 13 to No. 2) leap-frogged into the top two spots. Despite those results, Flores is in favor of the new lottery system.

“I do think luck -- whether you are on the right or wrong side of it -- is a nice change instead of forcing yourself to be lucky just by losing,” said Flores, who made 65 relief appearances for the Cardinals' 2006 World Series championship team. “I don’t know if this is the perfect way of solving [tanking], but the fact that there are some teams moving up and down, it has the potential to disarm the intentionality of tanking.”

Intentionality is a word Flores is using quite often these days as he begins to feel the pressure of culling a star from the Draft. History shows that it is certainly possible to find elite talent at No. 7. Clayton Kershaw (2006), Frank Thomas (1989), Troy Tulowitzki (2005), Nick Markakis (2003), Aaron Nola (2014), Prince Fielder (2002) and Max Fried (2012) are the top seven all-time WAR leaders selected at that spot, according to Baseball Reference.

The Cardinals’ highest Draft pick since 2016 -- Flores' first full season as St. Louis' director of scouting -- came in 2021. The Cards selected right-handed pitcher Michael McGreevy at No. 18. Flores said the Cardinals have tried to keep their scouting process the same as when he engineered Drafts (since 2016) in which the Cardinals' highest picks were 23rd, 94th, 19th, 19th, 21st, 18th, 22nd and 21st.

• The top Cards Draft pick from every season

“We didn’t want to try [to] race to the answers ahead of actually taking the test,” Flores said of St. Louis' scouting work that went into this Draft. “We were very cognizant over the first couple of months of the [college] season to not race and chase who we might think would be the final pick at No. 7. Instead, we wanted to go through the same process and do it with intentionality. We began scheduling circle-backs on several players who we thought might be in the mix for us at our pick. That type of preparation with more in-person looks was different than in the past.”

Flores stressed that there is no Paul Skenes in this Draft, but he noted that there’s a distinct level of talent that the Cardinals aren’t used to having access to with their pick. He wouldn’t say whether the Cards prefer a college star or a preps player, or whether they are leaning pitcher or hitter. But Flores is confident the Redbirds can nab an impact player with their first top 10 pick in 26 years.

“What I do know,” Flores said, “is that drafting at pick seven, that grouping of players has a chance to be different than the players we’ve normally been looking at before.”