How Randy can snap season-opening slump

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ST. PETERSBURG -- Randy Arozarena is not the only struggling star in Major League Baseball right now.

The Yankees’ Aaron Judge hasn’t hit like himself. Neither has Arizona’s Corbin Carroll. Alex Bregman and Matt Olson are hovering around the Mendoza Line more than a month into the season. The list goes on, because baseball isn’t easy even for those who often make it look that way.

And, of course, Arozarena is hardly the only cause for concern within Tampa Bay’s lineup.

Yandy Díaz has a .279 on-base percentage. Jose Siri is striking out in 41.4% of his plate appearances. Harold Ramírez has a .575 OPS. There are four players on the team with at least 90 plate appearances and fewer than five walks.

Still, the magnitude of Arozarena’s season-opening slump has been stunning -- even to him.

“I know things haven’t worked out the way I expected, the way I’ve played [compared to] the way I played last year,” Arozarena said Tuesday night through Rays communications director Elvis Martinez. “I feel a little down, because I’m not supporting my teammates offensively. I’m not carrying the load that I believe I can every single day.”

Arozarena entered the weekend batting .139 with a .220 on-base percentage and a .235 slugging percentage, amounting to a .455 OPS and a 34 OPS+. He owns the Majors’ second-lowest batting average and third-lowest OPS among qualified hitters.

He hasn’t had a multi-hit game since March 30. He’s put together one game with multiple RBIs. He has three extra-base hits in 112 plate appearances dating back to April 1. He’s left 61 runners on base.

Rays manager Kevin Cash has said on several occasions that Arozarena’s issue is that he’s not timed up at the plate. The numbers back up the notion.

He’s getting beat by fastballs, batting just .133 with a 31.7% whiff rate against heaters this season. He’s not doing damage on offspeed pitches, either, with just one hit (a single) and a 31.4% whiff rate against them. And breaking stuff has baffled him, as evidenced by his .179 average and 41.1% whiff rate on that front.

It’s not like Arozarena is just beating himself by wildly swinging at pitches outside the zone. He’s actually chasing less often this season than any other year in his career. If anything, what makes Arozarena’s skid so surprising is how he’s struggling in the strike zone. This season, Arozarena is whiffing on 31.1% of his swings on pitches in the zone, according to Statcast, up from 23.5% last year, 21.3% in 2022 and 25.2% in ’21.

The result is a massive drop-off in production from the 2023 All-Star, who put up pretty consistent numbers the past three years. He’s coming off three straight seasons with at least 20 home runs and at least 20 stolen bases, and his OPS+ those three seasons ranged from 120 to 129.

He still believes he’s got that level of performance in him.

“I’m going to keep working. I’m positive, in a good mindset,” he said. “And hopefully everything goes back to what last year was and [I can] keep playing the baseball I know how to play.”

Cash expects the same thing, which is why he has continued to slot Arozarena high up in the order, with all of his starts coming in the No. 2, 3 or 4 spot.

“I agree with him, and I do believe he’s going to fight his way through it,” Cash said. “I know it’s really tough to remain positive throughout a rough month or rough stretch that he’s going through.”

Arozarena has gone through similar stretches before, albeit never to this extent. He hit just .195 with a .507 OPS during the first month of the 2022 season and bounced back from that. He had a brutal July last year, batting .153 with a .482 OPS, but rebounded in August.

Considering the key players they’re missing and the overall struggles of their lineup, the Rays could use another quick and significant turnaround from Arozarena. If he gets his swing and swagger back, he’s shown he can carry the team.

“Sometimes it takes a couple hard hits, maybe sometimes a couple ground balls that find their way to the outfield to get that confidence and get that momentum and get your mechanics feeling the way you want,” Cash said. “And then we can see, when Randy gets going, he can get as hot as anybody in baseball.”