5 questions facing the Pirates in 2021

PITTSBURGH -- Derek Shelton learned an important lesson during his Major League managerial debut: Make plans all you want, but don’t set anything in stone.

Shelton’s first season in Pittsburgh didn't adhere to anyone's expectations. The COVID-19 pandemic shortened Spring Training, cut the regular season down to 60 games and canceled the Minor League season. The health and safety protocols necessary to play during a pandemic led to empty ballparks and dramatically altered routines for players and staff.

The Pirates spent most of the season without several of their top starters and relievers, and a handful of hitters who broke out in 2019 broke down a year later. The Bucs finished with 19 wins and 41 losses, the worst record in the Majors, during their first season under the new management of president Travis Williams, general manager Ben Cherington and Shelton.

“You don’t really ever know that until you live it. You can line up what you think is going to happen and how it’s going to go,” Shelton said. “But five or six people could walk into your office. There could be an injury. There could be something else that happens that you have to deal with. So, the ability to adjust on the fly, specifically with what your day is like, is probably something that really stands out.”

Shelton, like everyone else, is hoping for a 2021 that proceeds according to plan -- more than his first year at the helm did, at least. Here are five big-picture questions facing the Pirates as they make plans (even if they're not set in stone) for the next year.

1. What progress will they make in the Minors?
Considering the Pirates' current trajectory, this ultimately will be the most important issue facing their baseball operations department in 2021. With a team building toward the future and unlikely to contend at the Major League level, their focus must be on improving the Minor League system so that it can produce the core of their next contending team.

In 2020, the Bucs’ work with prospects was limited to remote instruction, the handful of top young players who spent the summer at the alternate training site and the group that took part in the instructional league camp in Bradenton, Fla.

Next season should provide the first real opportunity to see how the player development system will fully function under Cherington, assistant GM Steve Sanders and newly hired director of coaching and player development John Baker.

• 5 things to know about Bucs' farm director

Hopefully, Pittsburgh’s prospects will get to play a full season of games. We’ll see the official Pirates system debuts of top prospects Nick Gonzales, Liover Peguero, Brennan Malone and others. We’ll see if Quinn Priester, Max Kranick, Travis Swaggerty and Cody Bolton are ready to take the next step in their development. We’ll see some upper-level prospects, perhaps Oneil Cruz, break into the big leagues.

By the end of the year, we may have a clearer picture of which players the Pirates can build around.

2. Who’s No. 1?
All eyes will be on the Pirates in July when they’re officially on the clock with the No. 1 pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. Senior amateur scouting director Joe DelliCarri and his staff are slated to make four of the first 73 picks, a potentially significant opportunity to acquire the kind of impact talent and depth they need in their system.

Will they pick Vanderbilt right-hander Kumar Rocker or high school shortstop Jordan Lawlar with the top pick they’re already preparing for? How will they approach the rest of the Draft, and what will that tell us about their plan moving forward?

• No. 1 pick in hand, Pirates dive into prep

While the Draft is one big opportunity to add young talent, also keep an eye on the work the Pirates do in the international amateur market. International scouting director Junior Vizcaino and his staff were quite active this past year, especially with the additional bonus pool space Cherington acquired in several trades, and they figure to be just as busy when the next signing period begins on Jan. 15.

3. Who will stay and who will go?
This might sound like an offseason question, but it’s not just that. As he proved by trading Josh Bell for pitching prospects Eddy Yean and Wil Crowe, Cherington will use the entire year to monitor the market for players who will be eligible for free agency over the next few years and move them, if the offer’s right, to bolster Pittsburgh’s system.

Nothing came to fruition during the virtual Winter Meetings, but the Pirates could make more trades before Opening Day even after moving Bell. Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier are the players most likely to be moved, and industry sources confirmed that multiple teams have done background work on Jameson Taillon. Teams inquired about relievers Richard Rodríguez and Chris Stratton during the season, too.

Even if those players aren’t dealt this winter, rumors will resurface at the Trade Deadline -- especially if they’re playing well individually while the team struggles -- and again next offseason. The Pirates’ current focus is on the future, so they’re going to make decisions that will maximize the return they’ll get in these moves.

The Pirates could also make a few acquisitions before the offseason ends, though they would not likely be significant moves. They’ve talked about pursuing pitching and catching depth as well as a veteran outfielder, and they could add to their wish list if trades create any additional holes on their roster.

4. How will Ke'Bryan Hayes follow up his sensational debut?
Typically, Cherington has called the Pirates’ process a “build” rather than a “rebuild” because he believes there’s a foundation of talent in the organization. After his Major League debut in September, young Hayes is now viewed even more clearly as a cornerstone piece -- and, by some, as the Majors’ next star third baseman.

Hayes hit .376/.442/.682 with five homers and 11 RBIs in his first taste of the big leagues. He was the Pirates’ most valuable player despite only playing in 24 games, according to wins above replacement. He showed power and a good eye at the plate, speed on the bases, savvy in his decision-making and unsurprisingly stellar defense at the hot corner. When Shelton talked during his Winter Meetings media session about who’s penciled into which positions, he started with Hayes at third base.

Can he live up to the hype of being declared a future star after his first 24 games? Will he be named National League Rookie of the Year this time around? We’ll see. The Pirates are counting on him to not just be a bright spot during another potentially tough season, but a central part of their next winning team.

5. Who will bounce back?
Say this for the Pirates: They have plenty of candidates for Comeback Player of the Year in 2021. Coming off a season with an unexpected number of injuries on the mound and season-long slumps at the plate, a majority of the players on their roster seemingly have nowhere to go but up.

After missing last year due to Tommy John surgery and retooling his mechanics, will Taillon make a strong return to the rotation? What progress will Mitch Keller make after injuries limited him to five starts in 2020? Can relievers Kyle Crick, Michael Feliz and Clay Holmes come back and make an impact after missing nearly the entire season with forearm/elbow injuries?

This question applies to even more position players. Aside from Hayes, catcher Jacob Stallings and first baseman/designated hitter Colin Moran, just about everyone performed below expectations last season. Hayes, Stallings and Moran were the only three Pirates with at least 50 plate appearances who finished the season with an OPS+ better than 90. A resurgent lineup won't immediately lead them back to contention, but it would make them more competitive on a daily basis, restore faith in the work of hitting coach Rick Eckstein and significantly boost their hitters' confidence moving forward.

For some, like Frazier and Gregory Polanco, a bounce-back would boost their trade value. For young hitters like Bryan Reynolds, Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker who should be around for several more years, it will be important to show the Pirates what they’re capable of.