'Tier 2' FA starters carry lots of questions

Starting pitchers have moved the quickest of any position group on the Hot Stove so far, and it will probably keep going that way. Clubs that missed out on top arms like Charlie Morton, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman (the latter two accepting the qualifying offer) are now scrambling to evaluate the perceived “Tier 2” of the market, especially while top dog Trevor Bauer likely waits well into the new year to sign.

Teams are likely anticipating a deluge of pitcher injuries in 2021 as arms ramp back up from a 60-game season. But the irony is that many of this winter’s best second-tier starters -- a group that would figure to be more in demand than ever as teams bulk up on depth -- are coming off injuries themselves. It leaves a lot for clubs to sort out, but here is a quick rundown of what they’re looking at in starters that we barely saw pitch in ‘20.

Jake Odorizzi, RHP
Odorizzi is probably the surest bet of any pitcher listed here. He was a durable starter for six years running before a series of seemingly fluke injuries, including a back strain in Summer Camp, a chest contusion caused by a line drive off the bat of Alex Gordon and a nagging blister on his right middle finger, limited him to just four forgettable starts in 2020.

But the Twins were hoping for more than durability from Odorizzi this year based on what he did in 2019, when he struck out a career-best 10.1 batters per nine innings, put up a 3.51 ERA and 3.36 FIP and made his first All-Star team. Many of those strikeouts either came or were set up by Odorizzi’s fastball that generated the third-most whiffs of any four-seamer in the game (behind Gerrit Cole and Lance Lynn), and it’s that tool that could be helping him attract a good number of looks already.

James Paxton, LHP
Paxton rivals Odorizzi in talent and upside, but his injury history is a lot more checkered. The Yankees only got five starts out of Paxton after he began 2020 recovering from offseason back surgery and saw it end with a left-flexor tendon strain, and those ailments seemed to sap Paxton of the velocity that makes him so special (6.64 ERA, 10.2 hits per nine innings in those five starts). It's worth noting, however, that a diminished heater didn’t stop him from posting a surprisingly strong 11.2 K/9 rate.

Signing Paxton comes down to a question of high risk versus high reward. He’s never pitched more than 160 1/3 innings or reached 30 starts in a season, and at age 32 he’s probably a longshot to do so now. But so long as a team isn’t relying on The Big Maple to be its ace (or perhaps even its No. 2 starter), he may still be able to rack up strikeouts in a limited number of quality innings. Paxton's agent, Scott Boras, told reporters this week that the southpaw is "far into bullpen [sessions] and is throwing bullpens for select teams," with his back feeling strong and healthy.

Corey Kluber, RHP
Kluber’s pedigree alone as a two-time American League Cy Young Award winner is probably why he’s generated as much attention as anyone on this list, because aside from that pedigree there objectively are a lot of questions. Kluber’s average sinker and cutter velocities were already trending downward in 2018 (though his curveball and veteran guile were still dominant enough to him to win 20 games and be a Cy Young finalist), and the soon-to-be 35-year-old has made just eight starts since. The shoulder tear that limited Kluber to just one inning in '20 didn’t necessitate surgery, but he’ll need to show how much is left in his brilliant right arm during his showcase bullpen sessions in the next few weeks.

José Quintana, LHP
Quintana used to be one of the surest mid-rotation bets in baseball, but hints of decline began to show at the end of his Cubs tenure. The southpaw’s whiff rates have trended toward the cellar for several years running, and subtle changes in the quality of contact against him painted a troubling trend -- even before a strange combination of injuries (a lacerated thumb suffered while washing dishes, then a strained lat muscle) waylaid most of his 2020.

Quintana’s expected ERA (xERA), 2017-19
2017: 4.07
2018: 4.38
2019: 4.76

Quinanta probably isn’t the talented No. 2 starter that he was in his White Sox days, but teams could do far worse searching for back-of-the-rotation options.

Cole Hamels, LHP
Hamels was one of several Braves starting options who went awry in 2020, as shoulder issues limited the veteran lefty to just 3 1/3 innings on the year. Hamels’ track record and reputation as a determined workhorse will get him looks on the market, but showcase bullpens are likely in order considering that Hamels (who turns 37 later this month) hasn’t pitched effectively since August ‘19.

Chris Archer, RHP
Archer sat out the 2020 season as he recovered from thoracic outlet surgery, leaving even more uncertainty about a former star who struggled to a 4.92 ERA with the Pirates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently pondered if the Rays might consider a reunion with Archer, and returning to a familiar clubhouse could be a good idea -- perhaps on a one-year deal as Archer seeks to rebuild his value.

Félix Hernández, LHP
The King Félix hype was getting real right up until the first week of Summer Camp, when Hernandez elected not to play for the Braves out of COVID-19 concerns. The 2010 AL Cy Young Award winner showed promise in Spring Training when he allowed just three runs over 13 2/3 innings, but with teams having not seen him pitch in competitive action in nearly a year, Hernández may need to start from scratch by throwing a bullpen or two to generate interest. MLB Network insider Jon Heyman reported this month that teams are still showing interest in the celebrated right-hander.

Jeff Samardzija, RHP
The Giants kept Samardzija on the bench for their opening four-game set against the Dodgers, and they must have known something, because Shark got battered around (9.72 ERA in four starts) when he was finally allowed to pitch. He went on the injured list with a shoulder impingement in early August and came back for just one start in late September before the Giants released him.

Samardzija probably didn’t dazzle with San Francisco the way his five-year, $90 million contract suggested he should, but a team could gamble on the fact that he was the standard for a league-average innings-eater when he was healthy. The problem is there’s no getting around Samardzija’s declining fastball velocity, even before this year’s shoulder issue.

Carlos Rodón, LHP
Rodón simply never reached the heights that the White Sox envisioned when they selected him with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2014 MLB Draft, and injuries were the biggest reason why. The southpaw climbed the mound for the first time in more than a year this past July after recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he was forced to exit his second start of the season with shoulder soreness and came back only to make a couple of relief appearances in late September.

In total, Rodón has only made 41 starts since the beginning of the 2017 campaign, and his underlying numbers (a 4.67 FIP in that span) could force him to sign for something close to the league-minimum salary. Boras, however, told reporters this week that Rodon has received "very, very long-standing interest."