100 steals?! These prospects could do it

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Monday marked the return of the Boston Marathon, the annual morning Red Sox game at Fenway Park and the ritual googling of “What is Patriots' Day?” across the country. It’s a yearly reminder of the triumph of the human body, mind and spirit over a long grueling race, and it’s a good opportunity for everyone to trot out the old “It’s a marathon, not a sprint” chestnut.

It also puts running on our brains. Recent rule changes -- namely pickoff limits, pitch timers and increased base sizes -- have put a greater emphasis on stealing bases, and we’ve seen the foundation of that speedwork set in the Minor Leagues.

Victor Scott II and Chandler Simpson drew plenty of headlines last season when they tied for the MiLB lead with 94 steals apiece -- the highest total since Billy Hamilton’s 155 in 2012 -- and while they may have looked like outliers at the time, plenty are trying to follow in their incredibly fast footsteps.

Consider how the rates of steals per team per game and the stolen-base success rate compare to the last five seasons across the four Minor League full-season levels:

Yearly average

2024: 1.40 SB/G, 81.4% success rate
2023: 1.19 SB/G, 77.2% success rate
2022: 1.09 SB/G, 77.6% success rate
2021: 0.95 SB/G, 75.1% success rate
2019: 0.75 SB/G, 68.2% success rate

That’s a 17.6 percent increase in steals per team per game from 2023 and an astonishing 86.7 percent increase from 2019. Entering Monday, there were five Minor Leaguers with 10 or more steals in 2024: Ryan Bliss, Brandon Lockridge, Duke Ellis, Cade Marlowe and Simpson. On the third Monday of last April (April 17), there was only one: Simpson.

You might be saying, "OK, but those above are full-year averages. The season just started, and this could be statistical noise." Here’s what happens to those same numbers when we limit the sample to similar dates and games totals.

To-date average

2024 (through April 14, 1,216 G): 1.40 SB/G, 81.4% success rate
2023 (through April 17, 1,208 G): 1.27 SB/G, 78.0% success rate
2022 (through April 18, 1,158 G): 1.11 SB/G, 79.6% success rate
2021 (through May 14, 1,156 G): 1.11 SB/G, 76.4% success rate
2019 (through April 15, 1,192 G): 0.86 SB/G, 68.3% success rate

From the data, teams get slightly less successful at stealing bases as the season wears on, leading to fewer steals overall, but there aren’t many significant drops here. So even if the success rate goes down a percentage point or two, it’s still in the 80 percent realm -- a good bit higher than any other season in this five-year period.

That’s an important number to keep in mind. It’s generally considered a good gamble to steal a base if the runner has a 75 percent chance of being successful. Now, all four full-season levels are averaging a success rate well above that. That makes clubs more willing to put the pedal to the metal, leading to more steal attempts, and the cycle continues to spin.

Because speed plays a larger in role in today’s game, clubs are more willing to give roster spots to players whose loudest tool is their running game, and Minor Leaguers have become arguably more athletic as an entire group.

Scott and Simpson both discussed the trickle-down effect of their speed this offseason with my colleague Matt Monagan.

"It's a good way for us to let the new generation of kids know that there are other ways to impact the game," Simpson said. "You can play baseball and make it to the big leagues not by just hitting the ball over the fence. You can get in scoring position, you can hit a single, you can steal second and it's just like a double. Steal second and third and it's just like a triple. We're just trying to inspire and motivate."

While Scott’s speed has taken him to the Majors, Simpson hasn’t stopped running in the Minors either. As of Monday, the Rays’ No. 11 prospect has swiped 10 bags in seven games for High-A Bowling Green and leads the Minors with an average of 1.43 steals per game. That’s above the Minor League team average, and he’s accomplishing it by himself.

Beyond those two 80-grade fliers and the other current steals leaders listed above, here are other notable prospects who could threaten 100 in 2024:

Justin Crawford, OF, Phillies (No. 4, MLB No. 70): “My goal is always to be aggressive, play fast and play hard.” That’s what Crawford told MLB Network from Phillies camp this spring shortly after winning a plurality of the votes for the fastest prospect in an offseason MLB Pipeline executive poll. He’s followed up last year’s 47-steal performance with five more through seven games for High-A Jersey Shore -- a pace that puts him on track for 86 over a 120-game season. Perhaps more are in store as the weather warms up.

Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Orioles (No. 5): Like Scott and Simpson last year, the Vanderbilt product entered pro ball from the college ranks with speed to burn. He stole 25 bags in 25 games during his pro debut last year after stealing at least 37 in each of his three seasons on campus. Bradfield has four steals in eight games with High-A Aberdeen and could kick that production into another gear soon.

Jonah Cox, OF, Giants (No. 30): Acquired from the A’s in the offseason after being selected in the sixth round last July, Cox has made a quick (pun intended) impression in the Giants' system with seven steals in seven attempts over seven games for Single-A San Jose. A move to the Cal League isn’t an aggressive assignment for the Oral Roberts product, and he could bank plenty of bags there before an eventual move to High-A.

Omar De Los Santos, OF, Mets: De Los Santos’ 70 steals in 2022 were tied for third-most in the Minors, and he’s off to another strong start with eight in nine games for High-A Brooklyn this spring. The 24-year-old must get on base -- he had just a .261 OBP at the same level a year ago -- but once he does, he’s always a threat to move.