Inbox: Projections on Henderson and Lewis

It's a shame we don't have anything to talk about and folks had nothing to ask about for this week's MLB Pipeline inbox. Just kidding.

Between the reshuffling of the Top 100 and the expansion of our Draft list to 200, there was more than enough fodder for this week's edition.

If you had to put the current 2022 Draft class prospects in the current top 100, how many of them make it and at what ranges? -- @JakeHobrock

We tackled this question on this week's MLB Pipeline Podcast, so be sure to check out the episode and hear a more detailed answer.

We typically will have somewhere between 12-15 additions from the most recent draft class to the Top 100 when we re-rank later in the summer. There was some discussion on the pod about whether we would reach that number this season. On the one hand, this year's Draft class is not as great as some previous ones, although there is a good amount of talent at the very top. On the other hand, we've had a good number of graduations from our Top 100 list, so there are opportunities.

My colleague Jim Callis put the over-under at 12.5. I initially had thought we would have fewer than that, based on the strength of this class. So I'll stick with that. Jim took the over. So we'll have to see what happens.

One thing is certain: Druw Jones, the No. 1 talent on our Draft Top 200, will definitely rank fairly highly, assuming he signs with the team that takes him in the top two or three selections in July. It wouldn't shock me if he landed in the top 10, but if we wanted to be conservative, seeing him in the top 15 certainly seems reasonable.

Who has the higher ceiling, Gunnar Henderson or Ezequiel Tovar? Who has the higher floor? -- @Juliebefree

Volpe or Gunnar? -- @ABigWiseGuy2

If Gunnar Henderson continues producing at this rate in Double-A, where does he rise to by midseason/season end? -- @felix_pie_

How has Gunnar Henderson’s performance thus far affected your opinion on his floor/ceiling/future? -- @alex_pollack0

I'm not sure exactly what was going on over in the Twitterverse this week. Maybe it was because we just reshuffled our Top 100 and he made a nice jump up. But four questions about Gunnar Henderson??? That seems like a lot, even for a player who is very exciting. But I will answer each of these questions in order.

1. While both are super-young in Double-A, Henderson has the higher ceiling compared to Tovar and that's why we have him on the Top 100. While I like Tovar, and he might soon be a top 100 type guy, he doesn't have the same offensive upside as Henderson. You could make the argument that Tovar might have an edge in terms of floor because he is a no doubt about it shortstop and can offer premium defense to a big league team. But Henderson is so athletic that he'll be able to play third or center field or pretty much anywhere and that bat is going to play so I might even call that a tie.

2. The Anthony Volpe-Gunnar Henderson question, we’ve received in a couple of different variations ever since we launched the slightly reconfigured list. If I'm answering this question based only on the first seven weeks of the 2022 season, I'm obviously going to take Gunnar Henderson but that's not what our lists are about. We are looking at long-term prospects and who we think will be the best big leaguer when all is said and done years from now. Would it completely shock me if Gunnar Henderson ends up being better than Anthony Volpe? Of course not. I've been doing this long enough to know that we're often wrong but I'm not going to take Henderson over Volpe, simply because he has been really performing well and Volpe has started this year out slowly. By the end of the season, if the trends of the first part of this year continue, then maybe we can revisit this question.

3. I don't think Gunnar Henderson makes it beyond Triple-A this year. There is no reason for the Orioles to rush him. He's still incredibly young, so I would give him at least half of the season in Double-A to really let him put up some numbers and then decide what to do. There would be no harm in keeping him in Bowie all year given his age, but I get the idea of promoting him as a reward for the work that he's put in, and boy are his tools starting to show up production-wise. So I think he finishes the year in Triple-A.

4. For a long time, the Orioles player development folks have been telling me Gunnar Henderson was a very special player. And we had him on our Top 100 based on his tools. His performance before this year had been good and now he's starting to put himself into a more special conversation. But like I did with the question about comparing him to Anthony Volpe, I'm not going to extrapolate too much based on this small sample size. He's always had an enormous ceiling because of his size and raw tools, so that probably hasn't changed. When you produce like this in Double-A, that typically raises your floor because there’s belief that if you can do it in Double-A, you can do it in the big leagues. So his floor probably has gone up some and will continue to do so. As far as future? He's in the middle of our Top 100 now with a big up arrow next to his name. So clearly, we're pretty bullish.

Thoughts on Royce Lewis' great start and his long term future? -- @Gotwins10

I'll let you in on a little secret. We often have prospects we come across who we really like. And it's not just about their talent honestly. Given what we do for a living, we like guys because of their personality and their ability and willingness to talk.

It doesn't impact where we put them in the rankings, but maybe it makes us root for them a little bit more. We're human after all. Royce Lewis is one of those players. I will always root for him and again, it's really more about our interactions than it has been about what he can and can't do on the field. Of course, it doesn't hurt when he can do a lot of things really well on the field. But after missing nearly three years because of COVID and the knee injury that forced him out for all of the 2021 season, no one knew what we were going to get performance-wise. So to see him go out and hit well in Triple-A, earn his first promotion to the big leagues, and show he belongs there before getting set back down did my heart some good.

Anyone who has seen him would have known that he wouldn't go back down to Triple-A and sulk. He would just get back to work. And that's what he's done. The biggest thing that he has done from a mechanical standpoint is get rid of his leg kick at the plate. He had a huge Arizona Fall League with the leg kick but you always had to wonder if that would impact his timing negatively or force him off balance. This year, he's simplified and it has improved his stride direction and we're seeing the results.

I don't want to put any ceiling on him. Before the injury, even with the bad 2019 season, he still had the potential to be a five-tool player. I think he's showing now all that is still in there. And he's starting to really unlock the potential. I can't wait to see what he does next. And as always, I look forward to talking to him about it.