Projecting Mets' Opening Day lineup

Mets manager Luis Rojas was in the middle of a video conference last week when he was asked if his lineup card for that night’s game against the Astros might be a facsimile of his plans for Opening Day in Washington.

Rojas glanced to his left where he had a copy of the card, scanning it for possibilities. Truth is, the Mets' manager has already drawn up more than a dozen possible lineup combinations. Given his propensity for mixing and matching, he’ll probably use most of them over the course of 162 games. It wouldn’t be outlandish for Rojas to utilize a different lineup nearly every night, as he did during the shorter 2020 campaign.

Still, given all the pomp and circumstance that comes along with Opening Day, Rojas’ early lineups will receive plenty of scrutiny. Here’s a look at his decisions, 1 through 8. (Note that the options listed at each position are primary options. Over the course of the year, lineup combinations will vary depending on the opposing pitcher and other factors.)

Leading off
Most likely option: Brandon Nimmo

Unlike last year, when Rojas didn’t reveal his lineup plans until Opening Day, the manager has been consistent in saying Nimmo will be his primary leadoff hitter. That’s not to say he’ll be the Mets’ only leadoff man; Rojas unsurprisingly mentioned Jeff McNeil as another candidate to bat first from time to time, while Kevin Pillar or Francisco Lindor could do so against lefties. Even if Nimmo plays more often than in years past against left-handed pitchers, he’s unlikely to bat first against them very often.

“I think that’s the great part about our lineup, offensively, is that there isn't really a bad place to hit,” Nimmo said. “So honestly, it doesn’t matter to me where I hit in the lineup. I would just love to be in this lineup because it is potent.”

Batting second
Most likely option: Lindor

This is another area where Rojas has already provided a significant clue, saying Lindor is likely to bat second on Opening Day. As a switch-hitter, Lindor is the Mets’ most versatile offensive piece, capable of leading off or hitting in the middle of the order. He’s a strong enough hitter that he’s unlikely to bat lower than third very often, if at all. With either Nimmo or McNeil at leadoff most nights, having Lindor second negates the advantage of lefty specialists late in games.

“That’s the role I always grew up with, to be a situational hitter -- guy on second base, get him over; guy on third base, bring him in; guy on first, go gap-to-gap; nobody on, get something going,” Lindor said. “That’s kind of how I play the game.”

McNeil does profile as an ideal No. 2 hitter given his left-handed swing and his ability to put the ball in play, thereby moving runners along the basepaths. But he doesn’t appear ticketed for that spot as much as in the past. The Mets have used Pete Alonso No. 2 against lefties in the past, and they may continue to do so going forward.

Batting third
Most likely option: Michael Conforto

Assuming a 1-2 of Nimmo and Lindor, the Mets have three choices for the No. 3 spot against right-handed pitchers. One is McNeil, who will probably bounce around the lineup more than anyone -- first, second, third and lower. Another is Dominic Smith, though he’s going to have to prove his 60-game performance was real before the Mets trust him this high in the lineup. Batting third in Tuesday’s win over the Astros, Smith helped his case with a two-run homer.

Still, the most likely option remains Conforto, another lefty batter who may be the Mets’ best overall hitter. This could come down to who’s hottest at the plate on any given day: Conforto, Smith or McNeil.

Batting fourth
Most likely option: Alonso

Cleanup is probably going to belong to Alonso most nights against right-handed pitchers, with a lefty swinger in the three-hole. If he hits anything like he is this spring, with a .417 average and three home runs through 10 games, Alonso won’t have much trouble sticking there. (Against lefties, Alonso could slot second or third, depending upon who else is in the lineup.)

Batting fifth
Most likely option: Smith

With Alonso cleaning up, the Mets will want a lefty swinger in the five-hole. Whichever one of Conforto and Smith doesn’t bat third will probably slot fifth, though Alonso would become a candidate if the Mets stack lefties atop their order (Nimmo leading off, McNeil batting second, Lindor third and Conforto fourth). In that configuration, Alonso would make sense hitting fifth.

Against left-handed pitchers, J.D. Davis could sneak into this spot to give the Mets another righty option in the middle of their order.

Batting sixth
Most likely option: McNeil

This is an interesting position in that no matter how the Mets configure the top five spots in their lineup, an excellent hitter is going to hit sixth. That assignment has mostly fallen to McNeil this spring, who’s been diplomatic about it.

“I’m comfortable hitting anywhere,” McNeil said. “It doesn’t really matter, I don’t think. I’m used to hitting first or second. I think I’ve probably had the most success in the big leagues hitting second, just because I know that bat control I have kind of plays -- get a guy on second, I know I can get him over. But wherever they decide to hit me, I’m going to be OK with it. I’m just going to try to drive in as many runs as I can from whatever position it is.”

Of note: McNeil has hit well throughout his career no matter where he’s slotted, with no statistically significant differences among lineup spots.

Batting seventh
Most likely option: Davis

Against right-handers, Davis will probably fall to this spot because there’s nowhere else for the Mets to put him. If he contributes anything close to the .307/.369/.527 slash line he produced in 2019, Davis has a chance to be one of the best No. 7 hitters in baseball. Against lefties, he is likely to hit as high as fourth or fifth.

Batting eighth
Most likely option: James McCann

Most nights, the Mets will round out their lineup with McCann, their weakest hitter on paper. McCann may hit higher versus left-handed pitchers, considering his career OPS is nearly 200 points higher against them. In that scenario, Nimmo or Pillar could fall to eighth.