Predicting Milwaukee's Opening Day roster

Opening Day is Thursday, March 28 against the Cardinals at Miller Park, and teams have until 11 a.m. CT to set the 25-man roster. With less than two weeks to go, the Brewers’ plans are coming into focus. We know who will start on Opening Day (Jhoulys Chacin, who was informed of that honor Thursday) and who is trending toward the injured list (Jimmy Nelson and Jeremy Jeffress). And we know that manager Craig Counsell expects to have 13 pitchers on the roster for much of April, which should not come as a surprise to anyone who watched him navigate last season.

So, here is our latest shot at predicting who will stand on the foul lines for the opener:

Catcher (2): Yasmani Grandal, Manny Pina.

What changed? Still nothing, which means Erik Kratz remains in limbo. The Brewers have been keeping Kratz informed of their thinking as Opening Day nears, but he is the odd man out.

First base (2): Jesus Aguilar, Eric Thames.

What changed: Nothing, again. Last year, Aguilar was one of the last players to make the cut. Now he’s coming off an All-Star season in which he claimed primary duties and Thames is the one on the bubble. That bubble is particularly thin with the return of Mike Moustakas, which pushed Hernan Perez and Cory Spangenberg off second base and into bench roles.

Second base (1): Mike Moustakas.

What changed? Moustakas was a free agent when we first projected this roster and forecast a Hernan Perez/Cory Spangenberg platoon. Moustakas returned a week into camp, and last week Counsell said he’d passed enough tests at second base to be named the starter there.

Third base (1): Travis Shaw.

What changed? Nothing. The “default,” president of baseball operations David Stearns said during the offseason, was to play Shaw at third. Now we know he meant it, even after bringing back Moustakas. Shaw grades out better than Moustakas at third base, and with middle infield prospects Keston Hiura and Mauricio Dubon on the way as second base options, it made sense to leave third base alone.

Shortstop (1): Orlando Arcia.

What changed? Nothing. Arcia is the guy, and it's a big year for him.

Outfield (4): Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Ben Gamel.

What changed? No change, unless you count the impressive showings by the Minor League prospects who represent the Brewers’ depth at these positions. Particularly solid was Tyrone Taylor, who was optioned to Minor League camp earlier this week after hitting a long home run off Madison Bumgarner. Taylor has a chance to be the first call-up should the Brewers need a true outfielder.

Utility (1): Hernan Perez

What changed? This category wasn’t here in the initial projection because Perez and Cory Spangenberg were slotted at second base. This is tricky, since keeping both of them in addition to Thames would make it a 13-man bench and a 12-man pitching staff. If the plan is to open with 13 pitchers, it could mean that only one of Thames, Spangenberg and Tyler Saladino make the initial cut. Spangenberg and Saladino have an option remaining; Thames is out of options.

Starting pitchers (5): Jhoulys Chacin, Zach Davies, Chase Anderson, Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes.

What changed? We had Nelson in the initial projection, but Counsell confirmed this week that he won’t be ready for Opening Day. So he’s out. We’ve flipped Davies and Anderson to reflect how they are currently lined up behind Opening Day starter Chacin. That would leave two openings for Woodruff, Burnes and Freddy Peralta, all of whom have options. It doesn’t appear that non-roster invitee Josh Tomlin has done enough to make it.

In this exercise, we have Peralta starting on Opening Day at Triple-A San Antonio. But the Brewers have lots of options, literally. Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta all have Minor League options. Anderson has struggled to find consistency in his new delivery. Would it make sense to let him work it out in the Minors?

However they align on Opening Day, the way the Brewers are thinking about this is it’s a six-man rotation with five men in the Major Leagues at any one time. Plus, whatever they get from Nelson.

Relief pitchers (8): Corey Knebel, Josh Hader (L), Alex Claudio (L), Matt Albers, Junior Guerra, Jacob Barnes, Jake Petricka, Taylor Williams.

What changed? Technically, the Brewers have not ruled out Jeffress for the Opening Day roster, but that gets less likely by the day as he works back from shoulder weakness, so we’ve removed him from this projection. The team is being cautious, since the aim is to have a healthy Jeffress for the bulk of the season, not just the ceremony of Opening Day. Bobby Wahl is also out of the running, having undergone ACL surgery this week. So that means opportunity for a group of optionable relievers that includes Barnes, Petricka, Williams and Adrian Houser. Non-roster invitees Deolis Guerra and Jay Jackson also remain active in camp, though they would need spots on a full 40-man roster.

Just like last year, there will be a lot of moving parts all season. Here’s our best guess for how it will look on Opening Day:

CATCHERS
Yasmani Grandal
Manny Pina

INFIELDERS
Jesus Aguilar
Orlando Arcia
Mike Moustakas
Travis Shaw
Eric Thames

OUTFIELDERS
Ryan Braun
Lorenzo Cain
Ben Gamel
Christian Yelich

UTILITY
Hernan Perez

STARTING PITCHERS
Jhoulys Chacin
Chase Anderson
Zach Davies
Brandon Woodruff
Corbin Burnes

RELIEF PITCHERS
Corey Knebel
Josh Hader (L)
Alex Claudio (L)
Matt Albers
Junior Guerra
Jacob Barnes
Jake Petricka
Taylor Williams

INJURED LIST
Jeremy Jeffress
Jimmy Nelson
Brent Suter