Predicting where the top free agents will sign

Now that the Rangers have been crowned 2023 World Series champions, the offseason -- and therefore the Hot Stove season -- has begun.

The questions of where the most prominent free agents will sign will be answered in the coming months, but until then, there are several potential destinations for some of the biggest names in the game.

So, where will the most coveted free agents end up? We asked 58 MLB.com voters to weigh in:

Shohei Ohtani: Dodgers

Our voters overwhelmingly chose the Dodgers as Ohtani’s next team, with the Giants finishing a distant second in the poll.

It stands to reason that the Dodgers are the favorite, given that they have both the means and incentive to offer the two-way superstar a record contract that some have speculated could be for as high as $500 million or more. And Ohtani, who has been playing in nearby Anaheim for his entire Major League career to this point, could very well decide to stay in Southern California.

While it’s likely Ohtani will set a record for overall contract value and/or average annual value with his next deal, it isn't clear whether his recent elbow surgery will limit how much a team is willing to pay. Ohtani is expected to be able to hit by the time Opening Day comes around, but he won’t pitch again until 2025.

Whatever the future holds in terms of his contract value, Ohtani is in line to win his second career MVP Award after another sensational season. He had the finest offensive season of his career, hitting .304/.412/.654 with 44 home runs and 20 steals, leading the Majors in slugging and OPS. On the mound, he posted a 3.14 ERA and a 31.4 percent strikeout rate in 23 starts.

Other teams receiving votes: Giants, Mariners, Angels, Red Sox, Rangers, Mets, Yankees

Blake Snell: Cardinals

The margin here was razor-thin, but our voters have Snell signing with the Cardinals, who narrowly edged the Dodgers in the balloting by a single vote.

Snell had a tremendous season, one that may very well result in him winning the National League Cy Young Award. In 32 starts, the left-hander posted an MLB-best 2.25 ERA along with a 31.5 percent strikeout rate. He also, however, walked an MLB-high 99 batters, or 13.3 percent of the batters he faced.

The Cardinals are coming off their worst full season since 1990. And starting pitching was a major factor in their 2023 struggles -- St. Louis starters combined for a 5.08 ERA, ranked 26th in the Majors. The addition of a frontline left-hander like Snell would go a long way toward remedying that as the Cards look to bounce back in ’24.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, won the NL West for the 10th time in 11 seasons, but they did that in spite of numerous injuries to the pitching staff, including ace right-hander Walker Buehler, who didn’t pitch at all for Los Angeles in 2023. The lack of rotation depth hurt the Dodgers in the postseason, when they were bounced in the first round by the eventual NL champion D-backs.

Other teams receiving votes: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Padres, Red Sox, Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Yankees, D-backs, Orioles, Phillies

Cody Bellinger: Yankees

Another close one here, but by one vote our experts have Bellinger going to the Bronx rather than re-signing with the Cubs.

The Yankees sorely need a left-handed power bat, with all the slugging in New York’s lineup currently residing in the right-handed batters’ box with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton et al. And that short porch at Yankee Stadium would be quite an inviting target for Bellinger, the 2019 NL MVP whose production fell precipitously over the next three seasons before a resurgence in ’23.

Bellinger signed a one-year deal with Chicago last offseason and proved he’s still a great hitter, slashing .307/.356/.525 with 26 homers and 20 steals in 130 games.

That performance should certainly make his market a robust one, but 23 of our 58 voters think Bellinger will re-sign with the Cubs. Given that Bellinger was a big reason Chicago became a surprise postseason contender in 2023, it would make sense for the Cubs to want to keep him on the North Side in ’24.

Other teams receiving votes: Cubs, Giants, Mets, Red Sox, Mariners, Braves, Blue Jays

Josh Hader: Rangers

The most glaring weakness the Rangers had when they entered the postseason last month was their bullpen, which blew 33 saves, tied with the Rockies for most in MLB.

The masterful tactician at the helm for Texas, Bruce Bochy, navigated October in spite of that, utilizing starters in relief and getting clutch performances when the Rangers needed them en route to a World Series title.

But the bullpen will be a priority for Texas this offseason, and there is no bigger name on the relief market than Josh Hader. The flamethrowing left-hander turned in another dominating performance in 2023, posting a 1.28 ERA with 33 saves and a 36.8 percent strikeout rate for the Padres.

Fellow hard-throwing lefty Aroldis Chapman was good for the Rangers last year, but he continued to have nagging control issues. He’s also a free agent and could be elsewhere come 2024.

Other teams receiving votes: Phillies, Yankees, Padres, Angels, Red Sox, Mariners, Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Orioles, Rockies, Astros

Aaron Nola: Phillies

He’s been a Phillie for all nine seasons of his Major League career thus far, and over that period, he’s been one of the better starting pitchers in the NL, not to mention very dependable. So it’s not a surprise that a majority of voters in our poll have Nola re-signing with the Phils.

The veteran right-hander didn’t have a great regular season in 2023, pitching to a 4.46 ERA over 32 starts, but he was strong in the playoffs, posting a 2.35 ERA over four outings. In ’22, he was excellent during the regular season and over the first two rounds of the postseason before struggling in the NL Championship Series and the World Series.

Nola will be entering his age-31 campaign in 2023, and he’s been up and down in terms of performance dating back to ’21. But when he’s on, he’s nearly unhittable. His experience and familiar presence in the starting rotation make re-signing him a matter of continuity.

With Nola and Zack Wheeler atop Philadelphia’s rotation, this is always a dangerous team, particularly in October.

Other teams receiving votes: Cardinals, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Cubs, Mets, Orioles, Angels, Rangers, Twins, Yankees

Eduardo Rodriguez: Tigers

As with Nola, our experts see E-Rod staying put, re-signing with the Tigers (though the Orioles were a close second in the balloting).

Rodriguez finally had the breakout campaign many felt was coming. The left-hander, who has dealt with injuries that have prevented him from reaching his potential in the past, had a 3.30 ERA over 26 starts for Detroit in 2023.

An Orioles pursuit of the 30-year-old southpaw would make sense given that Baltimore’s starting rotation, while relatively young and promising, does not have a bona fide front-of-the-rotation veteran who could help them go deeper into the postseason after a 101-win campaign ended in an AL Division Series sweep by the Rangers.

Other teams receiving votes: Orioles, Red Sox, Cardinals, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Reds, Giants, Braves, Dodgers, Mariners, Marlins, Nationals, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Twins

Sonny Gray: Twins

When you’ve got good pitching, it’s hard to let it slip away. In keeping with the trend of free agent starters staying put, our voters have Gray remaining with the Twins.

The veteran right-hander put together his best season since 2019, finishing the ’23 campaign with a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts for Minnesota. He led the Majors in FIP (2.83) and fewest home runs per nine innings (0.4). While he turned 34 on Tuesday, there’s no reason to think he won’t be just as good moving forward.

The Twins quietly had a strong year and won their first postseason game in 19 years as part of an AL Wild Card Series victory over the Blue Jays. With Gray and Pablo López at the top of the rotation, you know what they say: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Other teams receiving votes: Cardinals, Braves, Orioles, Mets, Angels, Astros, Reds, Giants, Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers, White Sox

Jordan Montgomery: Rangers

Montgomery made quite an impression after Texas acquired him from the Cardinals in late July. The left-hander made 11 starts for the Rangers down the stretch, turning in a 2.79 ERA before posting a 2.90 ERA over 31 innings during the postseason.

That included seven scoreless frames in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series and 6 1/3 scoreless in Game 1 of the AL Championship Series, in each case setting the tone for Texas victories on the way to the franchise’s first World Series championship.

Pitching depth was an issue for the Rangers from early on, when superstar right-hander Jacob deGrom, whom Texas signed to a five-year contract for $185 million last offseason, had his season cut short due to injury after six starts.

Montgomery ended up being a huge midseason acquisition, complementing Nathan Eovaldi and the remaining starters in the Texas rotation. It would be difficult for the Rangers to let him go, especially since deGrom likely won’t be back until the second half of the 2024 season. At the same time, the club has a lot already invested in the rotation.

Other teams receiving votes: Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Orioles, Angels, Braves, Giants, Phillies, Rays, Tigers

Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Mets

Yamamoto spent seven seasons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball organization, pitching for the Orix Buffaloes and becoming one of the greatest starting pitchers in NPB history. The right-hander posted a 1.82 ERA over 897 innings in that span.

Still only 25 years old, Yamamoto is considered the No. 2 free agent in this year’s class behind only his fellow countryman Ohtani. By a wide margin, our experts see Yamamoto signing with the Mets, where he’d team with another former NPB star, Kodai Senga.

The Mets, despite a record payroll, struggled last season and became sellers at the Trade Deadline. The biggest moves New York made were trades of veteran co-aces Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

But this is still a club with deep pockets and a hunger to compete for the postseason. Signing Yamamoto would be a big step in that direction.

Other teams receiving votes: Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Red Sox, Mariners, Cubs, Padres, Cardinals

Jung Hoo Lee: Giants

A year removed from a stunning 107-win season, the Giants had designs on returning to the playoffs in 2023, but San Francisco faded down the stretch and finished four games below .500.

With a new manager at the helm, veteran skipper and Bay Area native Bob Melvin, the Giants are looking for a fresh start. Our voters think they’ll jump-start that process by signing Lee, a 25-year-old outfielder who spent seven seasons in the Korea Baseball Organization, where he hit .340/.407/.491.

The Giants have a major need for production at the plate -- the only player to crack the .800 OPS threshold last season was Wilmer Flores (.863), who was also the only Giant to hit more than 20 homers (23).

Other teams receiving votes: Mariners, Padres, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Cubs, Tigers, Angels, Cardinals, Dodgers, Guardians, Pirates

Matt Chapman: Yankees

This free-agent class is light on impact position players in general, and third base is no exception. That should help Chapman's market even though his bat cooled off considerably after a hot start to 2023, leaving him with just 17 home runs, the lowest total of his career in a full season.

A number of contenders seeking an upgrade at the hot corner figure to be interested. Our voters see the Blue Jays coming up just a little short in their effort to re-sign Chapman, with the AL East-rival Yankees topping our poll by a narrow margin, and the Cubs and Giants also not far behind. New York got a mere .655 OPS from the position in 2023, ranking 25th in MLB.

The 30-year-old Chapman still offers strong defense, having just locked up the fourth AL Gold Glove Award of his career, and he has provided at least league-average offense in each of his seven seasons.

Other teams receiving votes: Blue Jays, Giants, Cubs, D-backs, Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Tigers, Brewers