3 teams, 3 hypothetical offers: Which would pry Skubal from Tigers?

As the July 30 Trade Deadline approaches, one of the biggest questions is whether a contender is willing to put together a package enticing enough to pry American League Cy Young Award favorite Tarik Skubal away from the Tigers.

The 27-year-old All-Star left-hander is enjoying a fantastic season, improving to 11-3 with an MLB-best 2.34 ERA when he shut down the first-place Guardians in his most recent start on Monday. The Tigers, however, entered Friday in fourth place in the AL Central (11 games behind Cleveland). They were also 5 1/5 games out of the third AL Wild Card spot, needing to leapfrog five teams for their first postseason berth since 2014.

That has naturally led to quite a bit of speculation over whether Skubal will be traded. However, unlike rotation-mate Jack Flaherty, a pending free agent, Skubal is far from a slam-dunk trade candidate. Rather, he is under club control for two more seasons beyond 2024, which means the Tigers could well hang on to him with eye toward contending in ‘25 and 26.

• Keep up with the latest Trade Deadline rumors

In other words, the asking price for Skubal is sure to be extremely high. Still, given the glaring need among many contenders for top-tier starting pitching, it’s not out of the question that a title-hungry team could meet those demands.

With that in mind, we identified three buyers that make the most sense: the Dodgers, the Orioles (even after Friday’s deal for Zach Eflin) and the Yankees. We then asked the MLB.com beat writer covering each club to put together what they think is a reasonable trade package for Skubal. Finally, we turned to Tigers beat writer Jason Beck for a ruling: Pick one of those three offers … or hold.

Here are the results:

THE PROPOSALS

DODGERS

Offer: C Dalton Rushing (MLB’s No. 47 prospect, Dodgers’ No. 1), OF Josue De Paula (MLB’s No. 62, Dodgers’ No. 2), RHP River Ryan (Dodgers’ No. 4), LHP Justin Wrobleski (Dodgers’ No. 14)

Why it should entice the Tigers: The deal would be centered around Rushing and De Paula, two highly touted young position players. The 19-year-old De Paula has some of the most polished hitting tools in the Minors, and he has a legit chance to be a top 10 overall prospect in the next few seasons. Parting with him would be nearly impossible for the Dodgers, but this is a mock trade after all.

Outside of De Paula and Rushing, the Tigers would also get a pair of quality arms in Ryan and Wrobleski, who are currently in the Dodgers’ starting rotation.

Why it would work for the Dodgers: Giving up a lot of high-end prospects is just not something the Dodgers do often, but if they believe Skubal is the missing piece to this championship core, they'll improve by all means necessary. As talented as the Dodgers are right now, they still could use another front-end starter. Tyler Glasnow has been solid this season, but doesn’t have any history of postseason success and is already on the verge of blowing past his career high in innings.

Skubal is the type of pitcher that would start a Game 1 in the postseason. With Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman already on the roster, the time to win is now for the Dodgers, which is why they can afford to overpay if they have to.

-- Juan Toribio

ORIOLES

Offer: C/1B Samuel Basallo (MLB’s No. 12 prospect, O’s No. 2), 2B/OF Connor Norby (O’s No. 5), OF Kyle Stowers, RHP Alex Pham (O’s No. 22)

Why it should entice the Tigers: The centerpiece of the package would be Basallo, a 19-year-old wunderkind who has impressed at every level of Baltimore’s Minor League system up to Double-A Bowie. A 6-foot-4 lefty slugger with tremendous pop, the Dominican Republic native has a bright future, whether it’s at catcher or first base long term.

Norby has a ton of offensive potential as well, as the 24-year-old has shown at Triple-A Norfolk (.296/.371/.505 slash line in 227 games) and during brief stints in the big leagues. Meanwhile, Stowers and Pham would be solid complementary players in the deal.

Why it would work for the Orioles: It’s obvious why Skubal would fit well with Baltimore. The team can slot Eflin into its rotation behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, but it still could use more firepower in its rotation as it battles the Yankees for the AL East crown. The left-handed Skubal makes perfect sense. Plus, Burnes becomes a free agent at the end of the year and may not return, so having Skubal for the next two seasons ensures the Orioles will have an ace in 2025.

From a prospect perspective, Baltimore would retain infielders Jackson Holliday (No. 1 overall) and Coby Mayo (No. 15 overall, O’s No. 3), each of whom could contribute in the big leagues as soon as August.

-- Jake Rill

YANKEES

Offer: OF Spencer Jones (MLB’s No. 72 prospect, Yankees' No. 2), SS George Lombard Jr. (Yankees’ No. 6 prospect), OF Brandon Mayea (Yankees’ No. 9 prospect), 2B Jared Serna (Yankees’ No. 19 prospect), LHP Nestor Cortes

Why it should entice the Tigers: No deal for Skubal gets done without including Jones, the big-swinging speedster who has been touted as a left-handed Aaron Judge. The Tigers had an up-close view of Jones when he hit a 470-foot homer in his first spring at-bat in February in Lakeland, Fla. Detroit would also acquire two of the Yankees’ top 10 prospects in Mayea and Lombard, the latter of whom was the club’s first-round Draft pick last year, while Serna has been the team MVP at Single-A Tampa. Cortes provides a veteran arm who can help eat innings this year and in the future, and he’s relatively affordable as an arbitration-eligible player.

Why it would work for the Yankees: Let’s operate on the assumption that the Yankees will not consider moving outfielder Jasson Dominguez, their top prospect, who was activated Friday at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and could be days away from returning to the Majors. This proposal keeps “The Martian” in the system and effectively replaces Cortes in the present-day rotation with Skubal. Losing Jones hurts, but the Yankees plan to pull out all the stops to re-sign Juan Soto anyway. The trade for Soto signaled that the Yankees have to be all-in this year; trading for Skubal is an all-in move.

-- Bryan Hoch

THE DECISION

Most compelling offer: Dodgers

Part of the challenge the Tigers face in doing a Skubal trade is that they’re looking for an overwhelming deal, and the teams most linked with interest have some of the most measured front offices in the game. That said, the Tigers are expected to seek multiple prospects with high-level upside. Though the Orioles’ hypothetical offer includes several prospects close to the big leagues or with time there already, it’s difficult to envision Basallo centering a successful offer without being paired with Jackson Holliday or Coby Mayo.

The Dodgers’ hypothetical includes three of their top four prospects. It also includes a prospect who fits the skill set the Tigers’ front office seems to value with De Paula, who combines speed and athleticism with plate discipline and who came through the Tigers’ High-A affiliate at West Michigan a few weeks ago after being promoted to Great Lakes. Like Basallo, Rushing could provide a left-handed bat behind the plate or become an option at first base if Spencer Torkelson isn’t the long-term answer there. Ryan addresses some understated pitching needs in the system and has an advanced arm with upside, including multiple spin pitches, but would have to improve his command to meet the Tigers’ strike-throwing preferences.

Decision: No deal

On the surface, the Dodgers’ offer makes the most sense coming from their system. The challenge in all this, again, is that the Tigers will need to be overwhelmed, maybe to the limits of sensibility, to part with the AL’s Cy Young favorite with two years of team control remaining. How much extra value can they extract from trading now versus holding onto him and keeping him atop the rotation, even if they were to revisit the situation next summer with a year-plus of control left?

-- Jason Beck