How many stars from '24 World Series will be HOFers?

In advance of some recent World Series, we’ve used this space to discuss how many future Hall of Famers might be involved in that year’s Fall Classic. It’s fun not just to point out obvious entries like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander or Bryce Harper – all of whom have suited up on this stage in the recent past – but to also examine the in-progress cases of younger stars who still have work to do and the talent to do it.

But never in the recent past have we had a matchup quite like the one that is about to take place between the Dodgers and Yankees.

Spoiler: The World Series that begins Friday night at Dodger Stadium will not break the record for most Hall of Famers on the field -- 13, set in the 1932 battle between the Yankees and Cubs (Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Earle Combs, Bill Dickey, Lefty Gomez, Tony Lazzeri, Herb Pennock, Red Ruffing, Joe Sewell, Kiki Cuyler, Burleigh Grimes, Gabby Hartnett and Billy Herman, not to mention managers Joe McCarthy and Rogers Hornsby, the latter of whom was elected for his playing career).

But could Dodgers-Yankees reach the Divisional Era record of nine, which was set in the 1996 Series between the Yankees and Braves (Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Wade Boggs, Tim Raines, Greg Maddux, Fred McGriff, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Chipper Jones, not to mention managers Joe Torre and Bobby Cox)?

Let’s open up our Cooperstown casebooks and see which people involved in this Series might be put up in the Plaque Gallery one day.

START ETCHING THE PLAQUE

Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers

During Ohtani’s free agency last winter, I wrote a story on why he was already a Hall of Famer -- not just because of his production with the Angels to that point, but because he had reinvented what is possible at the Major League level and reshaped his generation in the process. You can go back and read that if you think this is somehow an outlandish suggestion (it’s not).

All Ohtani has done since then is post the first 50-homer, 50-steal season in MLB history to seal his third MVP while rehabbing his pitching elbow.

Now, he might win his first ring, too.

So while Ohtani technically still has to suit up three more years to reach the requisite 10 years of service time (a stipulation that also exists for a couple other guys on this list but is not going to be a problem), he’s a shoo-in (or is it a Sho-in?).

Mookie Betts, Dodgers

Mookie has been an MVP (in 2018 with the Red Sox) once and finished second three times. He has won two rings (in 2018 with the Red Sox and 2020 with the Dodgers), six Gold Gloves, six Silver Sluggers and a batting title. He’s been an All-Star eight times. With 1,615 hits, 271 homers, 371 doubles, 831 RBIs and 188 stolen bases, he’s still shy of some important traditional round numbers.

But then there’s also this: Betts’ 69.6 career bWAR is 13th all-time among right fielders, and everybody ahead of him and the guy right behind him (Tony Gwynn, at 69.2) is in the Hall of Fame. He’ll be there, too.

Aaron Judge, Yankees

I think any reasonable person would agree Bryce Harper is a lock for the Hall at this point, and so it’s interesting to note that Judge (52.2) is actually ahead of Bryce (51.1) in bWAR, despite having played 660 fewer games! That speaks to just how monstrous Judge’s numbers have been in his relatively-late-blooming-but-booming career. Judge was 25 when he broke out, which looks old in the context of guys like Harper and Mike Trout debuting at 19 and quickly lighting up the league. And injuries are a part of Judge’s story, unfortunately. So perhaps I am too quick to dub him a “lock.”

But to me, context matters more than counting stats, because the game is always evolving. This is the premier power hitter of his era, having now led his league in homers three times and the Majors twice, while setting the AL’s single-season record with 62 in 2022. He’s already at 315 homers, thanks to the second-best rate of at-bats per homer (11.31) of all-time (only Mark McGwire, at 10.61, was better). So 500 is definitely on the table.

Judge is about to receive his second MVP honor, and he’s also finished second and fourth and been named Rookie of the Year. He’s been a Home Run Derby champ, a Roberto Clemente Award recipient and a six-time All-Star. Again, maybe you’d rather see some more accumulation over time, and a ring sure wouldn’t hurt. But I’m ready to issue my Judge-ment now: He’ll get in.

Freddie Freeman, Dodgers

Who knows what happens in the coming years, but for now you’ve got to respect that the 35-year-old Freeman’s OPS+ in 686 games in his 30s (153) is actually better than 1,346 games in his 20s (136). He’s found a way to reach another level, which is important given that his supposedly prime years resulted in a handful of All-Star appearances but no higher than a fourth-place finish in the MVP voting.

Freeman broke through with that NL MVP honor in the COVID year in his age-30 season, but, just as important, he’s begun putting more black ink on that Baseball-Reference page, having now led his league in runs three times, hits twice, on-base percentage once and doubles four times. I’ll say it over and over: Context over counting numbers (though Freeman is 233 hits shy of 2,500 and reached 500 doubles this year). Freeman is a career .300 hitter from 2010-24. In that span, the Major League average is .251. That’s why Freeman’s career OPS+ (142) trails only Trout (173), Joey Votto (145) and Harper (143) among those with 5,000 plate appearances since 2010. Those guys are locks, and so is Freddie.

Special mention: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

He won’t be counted as a contributor in this World Series because of the bone spur in his big toe that shut him down for the season. But Kershaw would still receive his second ring if the Dodgers win.

Regardless of result, he’s a lock, with 212 wins and the best career ERA+ (156) of any pitcher in history with at least 2,000 innings.

HAVE THE ENGRAVER ON CALL

Juan Soto, Yankees

Soto turns 26 years old on Friday, so it would be ludicrous to label him a lock. And yet, in this moment, it kind of feels like the only mystery here is what cap he’ll wind up wearing on his plaque. Because this is the definition of “Hall of Fame trajectory.”

Through his age-25 season, Soto has been worth 36.4 bWAR. Only 18 players in history have WAR marks that high, that young. Among them, the only ones not in the Hall of Fame are Alex Rodriguez (who fell out of favor because of PED use) and Andruw Jones (whose WAR was largely weighted toward defense and might still make the Hall one day, anyway).

So you’ve got to like Soto’s chances. He’s already won a ring and been an All-Star four times, he’s already got 201 homers (the seventh-most before turning 26), and the premier plate discipline that has allowed him to post a career .421 OBP will serve him well as he ages.

Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees

This one seems to have snuck up on people during a postseason in which Stanton has evoked memories of his 2017 MVP season with the Marlins. The truth is, Stanton -- even amid all the injuries that have complicated his Yankees tenure -- had a compelling case brewing prior to October, because he’s closing in on 500 homers (429), which has traditionally been an entryway for anybody not associated with PEDs, and has a career OPS+ (136) identical to that of Ken Griffey Jr. He’s got that MVP and an earned reputation as the hardest-hitting slugger on record, which, even if it’s not enough for the BBWAA, will serve him well should his case come before his peers on a small-committee ballot.

But as I wrote during his ALCS MVP run, Stanton’s postseason prominence matters too, especially now that the postseason is weightier than ever. On a per-game basis, he’s the greatest home run hitter October has ever seen. A ring could help tip the scales.

Gerrit Cole, Yankees

Not sure how else to put it except to say that Cole sure feels like a Hall of Famer, because he’s been considered one of the premier pitchers, and at times the stone-cold best pitcher, of his time for a while now.

That said, current and future Hall of Fame voters are going to have to reshape what it takes for a starting pitcher to make the Hall of Fame, because otherwise there will be no more starting pitcher Hall of Famers. And Cole’s case is going to come down to however those polling protocols are shaped statistically.

As of now, Cole is at 153 wins through his age-33 season, so he should be able to get to 200 and possibly 250 (likely Hall of Famer CC Sabathia had 251), and his 130 ERA+ is fifth-best among those with at least 1,500 innings (trailing only Kershaw, Scherzer, Chris Sale and Verlander) since his 2013 rookie year. Cole’s Cy Young Award last season was necessary, but he’s also finished second twice and in the top five three other times. He’s a six-time All-Star in an era in which starters are breaking down left and right.

So again, how do you tell the story of stellar starting pitching in this period without Cole? You really can’t. But it will be up to the voters to determine what the modern qualifications ought to be. (Cole should probably just dominate in a World Series that the Yankees win in order to make this easier on himself.)

CATCHING ON?

Will Smith, Dodgers

Someone named Will Smith has won each of the last four World Series (this Will Smith with the Dodgers in 2020 and reliever Will Smith with the Braves in 2021, the Astros in 2022 and the Rangers last year). So we associate the name with rings, but you probably don’t associate it with the Hall of Fame.

Still, we would be remiss not to note that the Dodgers’ catcher has a 124 OPS+ in 2,510 plate appearances through his age-29 season, which means he has been 24 percent better than league average at the plate. That’s excellent for a catcher. In fact, it is identical to the career OPS+ of Joe Mauer, who was just inducted as a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Obviously, Smith is only, oh … about 5,000 plate appearances shy of Mauer. So don’t take that comparison the wrong way. But if Smith remains productive at an All-Star level deep into his 30s (and acquires a couple more rings), he might wind up with a case at a position where few provide much with the bat these days.

NICE CAREER BUT … NO

Anthony Rizzo, Yankees

He’ll forever have a special place in baseball lore as a prominent member of the curse-breaking 2016 Cubs, and the three All-Star appearances, four Gold Gloves, 303 homers, nearly 1,000 RBIs (he could cross that threshold next season) and career .261/.361/.467 slash line all combine to make him a highly respected veteran. Just not a Hall of Famer.

BUEHLER, BUEHLER?

Walker Buehler, Dodgers

Buehler appeared to be on a possible Hall of Fame trajectory through his age-26 season. From 2018-21, he ranked fourth in ERA (2.82) and sixth in ERA+ (146) among starters with at least 400 innings pitched. He had established himself as a workhorse and, making the most of those many Dodgers opportunities, a proven postseason pitcher (2.94 ERA and 101 strikeouts in 79 2/3 innings across 15 starts).

But then Buehler got hurt in 2022, missed 2023 due to Tommy John surgery and simply wasn’t the same this season. He’s a free agent entering his age-30 season, so he’ll need a major resurgence to get back on track.

JUST TRYING TO COVER OUR BASES

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers

The rookie right-hander is a 25-year-old pitcher with excellent stuff and control, he’s signed to a 12-year contract and he had a solid 129 ERA+ in his debut MLB season after coming over from Japan. So we have to at least mention him here. But he’s already missed time with a shoulder issue and pitching is hard. Check in with us again in a decade.

THE SUITS AND THE SKIPPERS

Look, I’m going to be honest: I have no earthly idea if any of the executives and managers involved in this Series could or should actually get into the Hall of Fame. Those will one day be small-committee decisions, and, frankly, there’s not a great deal of rhyme or reason to who gets in and who does not in a small committee.

I’m just going to use this space to point out their positives:

Andrew Friedman, Dodgers

Friedman led the low-budget Rays to their franchise’s first World Series appearance in 2008 and used his Wall Street background to help reshape how front offices operate. As president of baseball operations for the Dodgers, he’s had L.A. in October every year of his tenure dating back to 2015, won a World Series and now four pennants.

Brian Cashman, Yankees

To be the longest-tenured general manager for the most high-profile, high-pressure franchise in MLB is a feat in and of itself. Cashman’s time with the Yankees goes all the way back to 1986. He was assistant GM for the club’s 1996 championship and GM for their titles in 1998-2000 and 2009. Now, he might win another one. So that’s a pretty strong case.

Dave Roberts, Dodgers

Because we live in a time in which teams have to get through a loooong gauntlet to win a World Series, people tend to talk more about what Roberts hasn’t done (win a World Series in a full season despite having some of the most talented teams of his era) than what he has done (won a World Series in a shortened season, eight division titles and now three additional NL pennants). Roberts’ .627 winning percentage is the best all-time among those with 1,000 games managed. If he wins a second World Series, he has a much stronger case than you might realize.

Aaron Boone, Yankees

Boone’s .584 winning percentage is ninth-best among those with 1,000 games managed, but obviously that’s not going to get it done. He’ll have to win a World Series or three to qualify. So here’s an opportunity to help the cause, and maybe that memorable ALCS homer as a player for the Yanks will earn him some brownie (Boonie?) points.

FINAL TALLY

Among the players in this Series, that’s four Hall of Fame locks, in my opinion, and I happen to think Soto, Cole and Stanton will all get in, too.

If the final count is seven, it will fall just short of the Divisional Era record. And that’s why I am imploring Clayton Kershaw to suit up for one itty bitty pitch in this World Series to pad our total!