7 players who should get another shot at Cooperstown

This time of year is one of festivities, feasting and family.

It’s also a time for fiercely debating who belongs in the Baseball Hall of Fame and who doesn’t.

That’s right -- if you find friends or family arguing about longevity, peak production, awards, WAR and more, they’re embroiled in an engrossing debate that is fast becoming the topic du jour among baseball fans during the months of November and December.

One of the interesting subtopics in this area of discourse involves players who were not elected to the Hall of Fame but deserve another look -- a good, hard look. While the Hall's Era Committees already do so, the opportunity there is limited. What we're talking about here is gaining renewed eligibility for the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) ballot.

So we asked seven MLB.com writers to select one player they’d like to see get another shot at Cooperstown. Here’s a look at seven players we’d like to see back on the ballot:

Lou Whitaker, 2B
Year(s) on ballot: 2001 (2.9%)

Why he fell off: The 19-year Tiger went one-and-done on the 2001 ballot, which featured a pretty stacked group. It included nine eventual Hall of Famers, including Dave Winfield and Kirby Puckett, who were also making their ballot debuts. So, you could argue that Whitaker just got lost in the shuffle. However, he was then passed over by the Modern Era Committee in 2020.

The neglect was due in large part to factors out of Whitaker’s control. Besides winning the World Series in 1984, the Tigers made the postseason only one other time in his career. He never led the league in any significant statistical categories. His collection of awards and honors voted on by fans, writers and contemporaries is relatively modest. He finished in the top 10 of MVP voting just once. But Whitaker’s overall output deserved more recognition, as did his Cooperstown candidacy.

Why he deserved better: Although he didn’t have one uniquely special season, Whitaker was a very productive hitter for a long stretch of time. From 1982 through the end of his career in 1995, he averaged a 123 OPS+ and finished nine seasons with an OPS+ of 120 or better. That ties him with Jose Altuve for the seventh-most such seasons among primary second basemen. The six players in front of them on the list are five Hall of Famers and Robinson Canó.

Whitaker blended his offensive game with solid defense, which led to the three-time Gold Glove Award winner registering a 75.1 career bWAR. Only Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie, Joe Morgan and Charlie Gehringer -- all Cooperstown inductees -- have more WAR among players at the keystone position. Whitaker is ahead of Hall of Fame second basemen Ryne Sandberg (67.9), Roberto Alomar (67.0) and Nellie Fox (49.5), to name a few.

A five-time All-Star, Whitaker produced 10 seasons with at least 4.0 WAR, which is on the edge of an All-Star-caliber year. That's the fifth-most at his position, tying him with Morgan. Whitaker’s WAR also ranks fifth among all Modern Era players, regardless of position, who have had at least one voting cycle on the BBWAA ballot and are not in the Hall of Fame. The other four? Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Pete Rose and ballot first-timer Adrian Beltré, who has a good shot of making it to the Hall next summer.

-- Brian Murphy

Johan Santana, SP
Year(s) on ballot: 2018 (2.4%)

Why he fell off: Because he didn’t become a full-time starter until his age-25 season in 2004, and he threw only 117 innings after his 32nd birthday, Santana simply didn’t have the volume to impress Hall of Fame voters. He finished his career with 139 wins and 1,988 strikeouts over 2,025 2/3 innings spanning his 12 seasons in the Majors.

Why he deserved better: Santana was the best pitcher in baseball at his peak. From 2002-10, he posted a 2.90 ERA (150 ERA+), a 3.27 FIP, a 1.08 WHIP and 1,785 strikeouts over 1,779 innings. The lefty led his league in ERA, strikeouts, FIP, hits per nine innings and pitching WAR three times apiece, WHIP four times and innings twice. He also threw the first no-hitter in New York Mets history.

Santana won two Cy Young Awards and arguably should have won a third. He earned AL honors in 2004 an '06, but finished third in '05, behind winner Bartolo Colon and closer Mariano Rivera. There was really no comparison between Colon and Santana that year -- the latter finished with more innings (231 2/3 to 222 2/3) and strikeouts (238 to 157), as well as a much better ERA (2.87 to 3.48) and WHIP (0.97 to 1.16). Additionally, Santana led all AL pitchers with 7.2 WAR (per Baseball Reference), while Colon tied for 10th with 4.0 WAR.

The one area Colon had Santana beat? Wins (21 to 16), leading to one of the most questionable Cy Young voting decisions in recent memory. Only 11 pitchers in history have won at least three Cy Young Awards -- the list consists of seven Hall of Famers, three hurlers who aren’t yet eligible but are first-ballot locks and Roger Clemens, who leads all pitchers with seven Cy Young honors but isn’t in the Hall because of his ties to performance-enhancing drugs.

Of those 11, only Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux won as many as three consecutive Cy Young Awards. Would Santana have made the Hall already if he had that third one? Maybe not. But he might still be on the ballot rather than having dropped off after one round of voting.

-- Thomas Harrigan

Keith Hernandez, 1B
Year(s) on ballot: 1996-2004 (high of 10.8%)

Why he fell off: He doesn't have the hitting milestones or the power numbers of a lot of Hall of Fame first basemen. Hernandez finished his career with 2,182 hits, 162 home runs and 1,071 RBIs. Compare that to the two first basemen who were voted into the Hall of Fame while Hernandez was on the ballot, Tony Perez and Eddie Murray. Perez had 2,732 hits, 379 homers and 1,652 RBIs; Murray had 3,255 hits, 504 homers and 1,917 RBIs. Hernandez stuck around on the ballot for a while, but he never got the votes he needed.

Why he deserved better: Because he was one of the greatest fielders of all time, and probably the best defensive first baseman of all time. Hernandez won a record 11 Gold Glove Awards as a first baseman -- and not just 11 overall, but 11 in a row. And he might not have been a big home run hitter, but Hernandez was a great hitter. He had a career .296 batting average, a .384 on-base percentage, a 128 OPS+ and more walks (1,070) than strikeouts (1,012).

Really, Keith had no shortage of accolades. He has an MVP Award, a batting title and two Silver Slugger Awards to go along with the 11 Gold Glove trophies, and he was a five-time All-Star and a World Series champion with two different franchises, first with the Cardinals and then as the leader of the '86 Mets.

-- David Adler

Kenny Lofton, CF
Year(s) on ballot: 2013 (3.2%)

Why he fell off: Lofton debuted on a ballot with a whopping 10 individuals who have since been elected to the Hall of Fame, either via BBWAA ballot or Era Committee vote. And that doesn’t even count Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling, who also appeared on the ballot for the first time that year. He was up for consideration in an era when we were just starting to view candidates in light of stats we didn’t use during their careers but do have now, like WAR. As a player who hit for average but never hit more than 15 homers in a season, whose best year came in 1994, when he didn’t get to carry that prowess into a postseason run, that 2013 ballot was a tough draw.

Why he deserved better: Lofton’s 68.4 WAR, per Baseball Reference, was by far the highest of any player who fell off the ballot that year. His game may not compare in the power department to others of his era, but he was really good at his brand of baseball, and deserves further examination. His top MVP finish came in 1994, when Frank Thomas won, hitting .353 and slugging .729. But it was Lofton, with an MLB-leading 60 stolen bases and AL–high 160 hits, who led the AL in WAR at 7.2.

Lofton's 68.4 career WAR is ninth-highest among center fielders in MLB history and just shy of the average of the 19 Hall of Famers at the position (71.6). The only players ahead of him on that list are the still-active Mike Trout, and Carlos Beltrán, who is currently on the ballot. As counting stats are often used when looking at these cases, in part as a demonstration of staying power, consider this: Lofton is one of 10 players to accrue at least 2,400 hits and 600 stolen bases in his career. The other nine are all in the Hall of Fame.

-- Sarah Langs

Dick Allen, 1B/3B/LF
Year(s) on ballot: 1983-97 (high of 18.9%)

Why he fell off: Allen was on the BBWAA ballot at a time, before the sabermetric revolution, when hitters were evaluated heavily on career counting stats. As someone with a relatively short career (1963-77) who didn’t play in a high-powered offensive environment, his were well short of major Cooperstown milestones: 1,848 hits, 351 homers, 1,119 RBIs. (Falling below the 2,000-hit mark, in particular, has been a nearly automatic disqualifier for players in the Expansion Era.) Allen also bounced around a bit, and defensive issues dragged down his overall value. Finally, it didn’t help his case that he was not exactly beloved by the baseball writers of his day, in large part for reasons that don’t hold up well to modern scrutiny.

Why he deserved better: Let's quote from a past piece about Allen’s Hall case: He was one of the most ferocious -- and flat-out best -- hitters in baseball history. (Not to mention one of the absolute coolest.) Yes, his career was shorter than you would prefer. But he was a dominant force at the plate during a pitcher-friendly era, leading the Majors with a park- and league-adjusted 165 OPS+ during his 11-season prime (1964-74), directly ahead of eight Hall of Famers. His career mark of 156 ranks tied for 13th of the more than 400 hitters with 7,000-plus plate appearances; Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire are the only ones ahead of him on that list who played more recently.

It’s tragic that the Hall’s Golden Days Era Committee left Allen a single vote short of election not once but twice -- with the second time coming after his death in December 2020. But today’s BBWAA electorate, with the benefit of distance from Allen’s career and better tools to evaluate him, likely would look more favorably on his case if given the chance.

-- Andrew Simon

Kevin Brown, SP
Year(s) on ballot: 2011 (2.1%)

Why he fell off: Twelve candidates from this ballot eventually were elected to the Hall of Fame, which tells you how stacked it was. That, coupled with the fact that this was during a time when the sabermetric tools that have become relatively commonplace today were not widely accepted, led to a one-and-done for Brown. Counting stats, awards and postseason success were major elements in the evaluation process, and Brown just didn’t stack up -- he didn’t have 300 wins (211) or 3,000 strikeouts (2,397), never won a Cy Young Award and had a 4.19 ERA over 81 2/3 postseason innings.

Why he deserved better: What if you heard that Kevin Brown was basically John Smoltz without the postseason success?

Smoltz (career): 21 seasons, 3.33 ERA (125 ERA+), 3,473 IP, 69.0 bWAR, 53.7 S-JAWS

HOF support: 82.9% (elected on first ballot in 2015)

Brown (career): 19 seasons, 3.28 ERA (127 ERA+), 3,256 1/3 IP, 67.8 bWAR, 56.2 S-JAWS

HOF support: 2.1% (fell off first ballot in 2011)

Smoltz and Brown are not equivalents. Smoltz, of course, was tremendous in a long playoff career -- in 209 career postseason innings, he posted a 2.67 ERA and pitched in some historic games (e.g. his epic duel against Jack Morris in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series). He was the MVP of the 1992 NL Championship Series and pitched in five World Series, helping Atlanta win it all in ’95.

But in the regular season, Brown pitched nearly as long as Smoltz, with a lower ERA, higher ERA+, nearly identical WAR and a higher S-JAWS score -- according to the JAWS Hall of Fame scoring system, Brown ranks 33rd among starting pitchers. Smoltz ranks 42nd.

From 1996-2003, Brown was one of the game’s best starters. Over that span, he had a 2.60 ERA (157 ERA+) over 1,600 innings for the Marlins, Padres and Dodgers. In ’96, he finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting to … Smoltz. Brown had a lower ERA (1.89 to Smoltz’s 2.94), higher ERA+ (215 to 149) and higher bWAR (7.9 to 7.4). Smoltz, however, had more wins (24 to Brown’s 17) and more strikeouts (276 to 159).

Here’s hoping that Brown gets another chance at Cooperstown.

-- Manny Randhawa

Bobby Grich, 2B
Year(s) on ballot: 1992 (2.6%)

Why he fell off: Grich received just 2.6% of the votes in his first and only year on the Hall of Fame ballot in 1992. It’s almost impossible to fathom how he received such little support for Cooperstown considering he has a legitimate case for induction. Unfortunately, Grich did not have the raw totals that many felt necessary for the Hall of Fame at the time. Though he hit 224 home runs, Grich finished his 17-year career with 1,833 hits, 864 RBIs and a .266 average.

Why he deserved better: Despite falling short of the 2,000-hit milestone and not hitting for a higher average, Grich has some solid Hall of Fame credentials. When it comes to accolades, he was a six-time All-Star, a four-time Gold Glove Award winner and a one-time Silver Slugger. As for his overall production, Grich racked up 71.1 bWAR -- good for eighth all time among second basemen. That puts him ahead of several Hall of Fame second basemen, including Frankie Frisch, Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio. Grich is one of just five second basemen with at least 100 homers, 100 stolen bases and a 125 OPS+. The other four are three Hall of Famers -- Rogers Hornsby, Joe Morgan and Charlie Gehringer -- and a potential future Hall of Famer in Jose Altuve.

-- Paul Casella