Who's on first? Probably Moran

PITTSBURGH -- The earliest of the big trades Pirates general manager Ben Cherington made this offseason sent first baseman Josh Bell to the Nationals for two pitching prospects.

So what does the club do about first base? It’s a position that doesn’t demand as much as the other infield spots defensively, but one that ideally gets a strong bat in the lineup -- especially if the National League goes without a designated hitter in 2021.

Here are the options.

Starter: Colin Moran

After being the Pirates’ starting third baseman from 2018-19, Moran spent the last 39 games of the ‘20 season at either first or DH, clearing the way for Ke’Bryan Hayes’ arrival on Sept. 1. After a stellar rookie season, Hayes will stay at third, so first base is the best fit for Moran.

Though his batting average dropped by 30 points (.277 to .247), Moran arguably had his best offensive season since joining the Pirates in 2018, when he came to Pittsburgh in the Gerrit Cole blockbuster. His hard-hit rate was by far the highest of any full-season mark at 47.2 percent, per Statcast. On the flip side, his K-percentage rate ticked up slightly to 26 percent and his launch angle dropped below 10 degrees. Overall, the solid contact points to some things Moran has been working on coming to fruition.

“I feel like I’ve just matured as a hitter, maybe, to use more leverage and hit the ball harder and try to get into good counts,” Moran said at the end of the 2020 season. “For the most part, I feel like I’ve been working on squaring up the baseball. That’s been the focus rather than just trying to get hits.”

Backup: Phillip Evans

Evans has not been a consistent starter in his three years of Major League playing time. He was set to finally get a fair amount of time in 2020, especially given his strong start to the season, but a collision with Gregory Polanco on Aug. 8 led to a fractured jaw, a concussion and a season-ending trip to the 60-day injured list.

Before the injury, the 28-year-old was hitting 14-for-39 (.359) with two doubles and a homer. Even though his expected batting average was much lower (.268), it’s still the highest xBA he’s posted. It’s hard to project much with such a small sample size, but it’s likely Evans will have a grasp on the backup role at first base in 2021.

Evans’ success is something Cherington expected when the Pirates signed him before the 2020 season.

“We thought that he was at a point his career where he had started to make some adjustments, there was enough defensive value with the versatility and, basically, it looked like he was making some adjustments offensively, getting us some more power,” Cherington said in September. “So, we thought maybe he was at the point in his career where there might be a corner. It's not a big enough sample to tell, but we're really encouraged by what he's doing.”

Depth: Will Craig

After being the No. 10 prospect in the Pirates’ system in 2019, per MLB Pipeline, Craig has dropped out of the rankings altogether. He still has a ton of power potential, slugging at least 20 homers in '18 and ‘19 in the Minor Leagues. But he’s also had a spike in strikeouts, including 143 in 131 games at Triple-A in ‘19.

The Pirates shouldn’t mind sacrificing decreased contact for increased power, especially given Craig isn’t a great baserunner, but better plate discipline would make him a more attractive option.

In the pipeline: Mason Martin

Talk about power. Martin, 21, has arguably the most pop in the entire farm system. The Pirates’ No. 25 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, slugged an exceptional .558 across Class A and Class A Advanced in 2019, cranking 35 homers and 32 doubles in 131 games. Even if he were to impress at Spring Training as a non-roster invitee, though, it’s unlikely he will get a shot at the Major League roster.

But how long will that be the case? The safe projection would be sometime in 2022, but don’t be surprised if Martin is a September callup this year. He will need to be on the 40-man roster this offseason to shield him from the Rule 5 Draft.

Martin is by far the best bet at a future first baseman in the organization, but should things not go to plan, the Pirates could always convert one of their other infield prospects (likely a third baseman) into a first baseman.