Young, hungry Pirates to define '21 season

The Pirates aren’t projected to contend in the National League Central this year, but don’t tell the guys in the clubhouse that. They believe that they have the pieces in place to surprise people.

However, Pittsburgh's main focus for 2021 won’t be whether or not it makes the playoffs. It will be about how the club develops its young core. So expect quite a few callups and debuts this season, and expect young guys to get the reps to prove themselves.

Maybe it works out this year. Maybe it doesn’t. Regardless, it’s about progress and building a contender in the years to come.

So what are the Pirates' big questions entering the season? Who can be the stars in the upcoming 162-game season? Let’s take a look:

What needs to go right?
In order to compete, just about everything. The Pirates will need continued production from guys who have been scorching in Spring Training, like Kevin Newman, Adam Frazier and Bryan Reynolds, after rough years across the board in 2020. They’ll need a starting rotation and a bullpen that are more consistent, especially given the need for more arms mixed in throughout the season to try to manage innings after a shortened campaign. The defense cannot commit errors at the rate it did last season (47 in 60 games), nor can the club be content to steal as few bases as it did in '20 (16 in 60 games).

Nearly all of these areas have seen improvement this spring, but those improvements will have to carry into the regular season. And then there's the great terrorizer in baseball: injuries. The Pirates have already sustained two key ones to pitchers Steven Brault and Blake Cederlind.

But what's most important is that Pittsburgh sees its young core adjusting to Major League competition and laying the foundation for their development. Many pieces of the future will get playing time this season beyond the likes of Ke’Bryan Hayes, especially on the pitching side. A successful season on this front should be what the organization's leadership will be keeping the closest eye on.

Great unknown: Can Keller become the go-to guy?
Mitch Keller has long been the Pirates’ pitcher of the future, stemming from his days as the club's No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline. But he has largely been inconsistent in his first two years in the Majors. In 2019, he had a 7.13 ERA, but his expected ERA was a much better 2.76. In '20, he had a stellar 2.91 ERA, despite his xERA rising sharply to 6.17.

Can these trends even out to produce a reliable top-of-the-rotation arm for the Pirates to build around? Keller will need to clean up his walk rate, which jumped to 20.7 percent last season, to help move the needle toward that possibility. He has been successful and struck batters out at a high clip when he stays around the zone, even if he has given up a few homers.

Team MVP will be … Hayes
Nothing so far this spring has given us any indication that a major correction is due for Hayes after his incredible debut last September. Will he post an 1.124 OPS for a full season after setting that mark in 24 games last season? Of course not. But he has shown the same ability to drive the ball to all fields in Spring Training, his glove plays 24/7 at third base and he has upped his aggressiveness on the bases.

“If you watch him on a day-to day basis, you'd be shocked that this guy's played 24 games in the big leagues,” manager Derek Shelton said.

Team Cy Young will be … Keller
It has to happen eventually, right? Keller has shown his ability to get guys out when he can locate his slider to complement his fastball. As said above, he has been seen as a potential ace of the future. His inconsistent results are not the product of bad stuff or the yips or anything like that.

What needs to be reiterated is that Keller thrown only 69 2/3 big league innings. That’s less than half a full season for a normal rotation guy, and less than a third of the season for the top-tier starters across the league. Needing another year to find his way is not an indictment of Keller. It’s natural for a pitcher who still doesn’t have a full 162-game campaign under his belt.

Bold prediction: Hayes will get more than NL ROY Award votes
Hayes will win the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Is that not bold enough for you? Fine, he’ll also garner NL Most Valuable Player Award votes.

What’s not to love? Hayes has been compared to Matt Chapman and Nolan Arenado in the field, can hit for power and average and is a threat on the basepaths. That’s basically the blueprint for the types of players who regularly earn MVP Award consideration -- and the hype is already there. Even if the Pirates are competitive this season, I don’t think it’s unimaginable that a great year by Hayes could sway a few voters.