Will Bucs get over the hump in second half?

This story was excerpted from Alex Stumpf’s Pirates Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

The first half of the Pirates’ 2024 campaign is in the books. After 96 games, they find themselves at an even .500 -- with 48 wins and 48 losses -- and plenty of questions moving forward.

As the second half of the season gets underway, let’s preview what might happen between now and October.

Second-half goal: Get over the hump
The goal all year has been to make it to the postseason, and they are certainly in the mix to do that. A four-game winning streak helped the Pirates finish the first half of the season with a .500 record, and they sit 1 1/2 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot. They have one of the best rotations in the game, anchored by Paul Skenes, who already looks like a Cy Young candidate. They need more offensive production, but Bryan Reynolds and Rowdy Tellez are two of the hottest hitters in the National League. If one or two more hitters can step up like that, it might be enough to sneak into the playoffs.

Trade Deadline plan: Buy some bats
The Pirates are making calls to acquire more hitters, and they have enough young pitching prospects to get a deal or two done. The Pirates’ 402 runs scored were tied for the third fewest in the National League in the first half, and that’s due in large part to a couple positions where the Pirates haven’t gotten much offensive production -- especially in the outfield, where only Reynolds has consistently produced. It seems very unlikely the Pirates will trade a top prospect like right-hander Bubba Chandler (Pittsburgh’s No. 1 prospect), but they have plenty of appealing depth arms that could either be lumped together or sold on their own to get another bat.

Key player: SS Oneil Cruz
Some streakiness from Cruz was expected after he missed almost all of 2023, but his overall stats on the season are above average, crushing 14 home runs with seven stolen bases and a 107 OPS+. He clearly has another gear, though, and if he can tap into it, it could be a massive boost for this offense. He certainly finished the first half of the season strong, homering three times with a .325 batting average and a .978 OPS in his final 11 games before the break. The Pirates went 7-4 in those games. That’s not coincidental. When Cruz heats up, it’s usually enough to carry the team’s stellar pitching.

Prospect to watch: RHP Braxton Ashcraft
Could Ashcraft be a third stud rookie to join the Pirates’ rotation this year? The team’s No. 5 prospect has wowed this year, including allowing just one run with 13 strikeouts over his first 18 1/3 innings with Triple-A Indianapolis. He has plus stuff, including a fastball that can tick up to the upper 90s and potentially play out of the rotation or bullpen. The question is, how much more pitching will the Pirates let him do? He’s already thrown 72 innings, more than he ever has as a professional, so how far will the Pirates push him beyond the 52 2/3 frames he threw last year?