Inbox: Why is Keller struggling in the zone?

Why is Mitch Keller struggling so much? He has elite stuff, but is not throwing strikes in the zone. It doesn't make any sense.
-- @TheTruthSwagner

If I had the answer to that, I might be the Pirates' pitching coach.

You’re absolutely right that _historically_, the problem for Keller has been throwing strikes. It seemed like it was going to be that way again when he walked four batters over three innings in his first start of the season.

The good news: In the past two outings, Keller has gone out and attacked the zone. Here’s the strike percentage in each of his first three starts in 2021:

4/4 @ Cubs: 54.5%
4/10 vs. Cubs: 71.2%
4/15 vs. Padres: 61.4%

I know it’s cool to see the no-hit streak he had at the end of 2020, but if it’s going to require 10 walks in 11 innings to do that, it’s not worth doing. Keller’s first outing in ‘21 was barely below his 56% strike rate across 2020, but the last two have been above it.

Does throwing strikes mean Keller will succeed? Not necessarily, as we saw on Thursday vs. the Padres, when he allowed seven runs in 3 1/3 innings. But it’s the only way he’s going to create space for his stuff to play.

Keller told reporters in Spring Training that he’s working to unify his delivery, as he believes part of the issue with his fastball command has been variation in where and when he delivers the pitch. It seems like he’s cleaned that up, as evidenced in his release points last season vs. his release points over the past two starts. Now, the question is will it remain that clean?

What I always caution with Keller in particular, but it goes for many of the Pirates’ young talents: He hasn’t played a full 162-game season. It is natural to want results right away from a former No. 1 prospect, but the arc of development is not a straight line that always ends pointed skyward.

The Pirates are not poised to win the World Series this season, so breathe. Give him a full season to work through some rough patches with contact as he tries to attack the zone more consistently, and see how he adjusts.

What do you define a successful season for the Pirates? Development, wins-wise, Draft positioning for next year?
-- @ej_webs

I’m going to forgo the last part of the question for two reasons. Firstly, no one will say they’re playing for the No. 1 pick in the Draft, because that would mean saying that you’re trying to lose 100-plus games. And second, I wouldn’t factor that into a successful season for the Pirates; so much of that depends on how other teams fare, too.

In terms of wins, I don’t think that’s a major part of the equation, either. Sure, the players are playing to win. They’re competitors. I think the bigger picture for the Pirates this year is about the processes and growth of individual players, in line with how GM Ben Cherington has talked about building a “base of talent.”

Development is the biggest part of the equation for a successful season. And I would warrant that for the Pirates, a “successful season” has to be so at the Minor League level as much as at the Major League level.

As mentioned before, giving the players currently on the active roster, plus guys on the bubble like Wil Crowe, Miguel Yajure and others, the necessary time in the Majors to adapt and adjust, is critical. But really, a successful season will need gains individually in the Minors; in fact, getting a near-full season of games is part of that success in and of itself.

But development is not only about the guys on the Pirates’ Top 30 Prospects list. It’s about making sure that every player at every level has the coaching, playing time and tools to make improvements.

“Our energy is not focused on any one particular player,” Cherington said. “We’re going to need lots and lots of them to be really good players to do what we need to do."

With Kevin Newman not hitting the ball like he was in spring, and with Phil Evans hitting a ton, could we see Evans move to shortstop when Ke'Bryan Hayes returns?
-- @_RadioJake

I doubt it. Not to say Evans couldn’t play shortstop -- heck, he was drafted as a shortstop -- but I think they’d rather him play right field when resting Gregory Polanco or giving him a day off for games vs. left-handed starting pitchers. It’s also not out of the question that Evans could get time in left field, with Bryan Reynolds moving to center field, given the inconsistent production from the Pirates center fielders.

You also have to consider that Erik González is seeing the ball the best he’s shown in his Major League career, and he will be blocked from his secondary position -- namely, third base. Given the stated and unstated purposes of this season -- to see how young talent develops, including Newman, by giving them as many chances as possible -- I still think Newman and González will get almost all the starts at shortstop for now.

Still, if I had to give a power ranking of where I see Evans best fitting when Hayes returns: right field, third base (when possible), first base, left field… then center field and shortstop evenly. That’s primarily due to Cherington’s concession when asked which positions he’s most comfortable with Evans playing.

“I guess he hasn't played center or short, I don't think, recently, but he came up as a shortstop,” Cherington said. “If he had to do it, I'm sure he could do it.”