After top 3, who will fill out the Pirates' rotation?

BRADENTON, Fla. -- In just 11 days, the Pirates will travel to Miami for Opening Day.

Who knows exactly what that rotation will look like. The only sure bets are veterans Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzales and Martín Pérez. Besides them, it’s been an open, and ongoing, competition.

"I think we have clarity of who the first three are, and after that, there's guys who have pitched well and put themselves in position to be there,” manager Derek Shelton said after the Pirates’ 8-4 win over the Rays at LECOM Park Sunday.

“What we've asked them to do is make it difficult for us to make those decisions on the last two spots. We have, what, 10 days left, and we still have some difficult decisions to make."

Let’s take a look at those remaining pitchers fighting for those final two spots.

Young and optionable -- Luis L. Ortiz, Quinn Priester, Jared Jones

Jones, who is Pittsburgh's No. 3 prospect, technically wouldn’t be optioned since he’s not yet on the 40-man roster, but he’s wowed this spring and isn’t letting the competition change his approach.

“All that stuff is just words,” Jones said. “I have to do what I have to do. No matter where I go, there’s no mindset change. There’s nothing that’s going to change. I just have to go out there and pitch how I pitch.”

Priester and Ortiz have both shown improved stuff and seemingly better attack plans after getting a real taste in the majors last year, but some mixed results. Both were top 100 prospects a year ago and have high upsides, but would need to grow into their spots in the majors.

We’ll see all three, plus more pitchers like No.1 prospect Paul Skenes, at some point this year.

Cannot be optioned -- Roansy Contreras, Bailey Falter

Both pitchers need to either make the Opening Day team or be exposed to waivers. The Pirates have added some rotation depth lately, but potentially losing a starter is a decision they wouldn't come to lightly.

Contreras’ stuff has certainly ticked up this spring, but the results haven’t been there. It’s good to see him throwing in the mid-90s again, but 10 walks over 10 2/3 innings is concerning.

“I can’t explain what it is,” Conteras said on March 13, as interpreted by infield coach Mendy Lopez. “... I didn’t feel the command with my pitches. I’m not sure what’s causing the inconsistency.”

Falter has struck out 11 over 12 1/3 innings this spring, but has also allowed four homers. He’s talked this spring about his intent to get after hitters, he is getting ahead in the count more and walking fewer.

The Pirates could stash one or even both in the bullpen if they want to go in a different direction with the rotation, but it’s hard to envision them moving on from both pitchers entirely. A chance as a starter could give them runway to see if the improved stuff or mindset can play, but it comes with the risk of carrying a project pitcher in the rotation.

The veterans -- Josh Fleming, Chase Anderson, Eric Lauer, Domingo Germán

Germán will not be ready for Opening Day, and the calendar is working against Lauer also after they signed him late into spring. That leaves Fleming and Anderson, both of whom pitched Sunday.

Fleming leaned on his sinker Sunday and got plenty of grounders, which is the norm for him. His 61.6% ground ball rate ranked in the 98th percentile of pitchers last year.

“It feels really good,” Fleming said. “That’s kind of like my bread and butter, being a sinker baller and being a weak contact, contact guy first. That’s a pitch that I need to have on at all times.”

Anderson allowed three runs over four innings Sunday, but also struck out six and had been spotless in his first three outings (seven innings) this spring. He’s been leaning on his cutter and changeup more, which was a pitch combo that worked for him in Colorado towards the end of last season.

“We talked about that usage,” Anderson said. “It was big for me, two separate ways, different directions, different speeds. Hard to pick up out of the hand.”

Both pitchers could fit in the bullpen if they don’t earn rotation spots, and it could be the better option. Anderson could lean into the offspeed stuff more and Fleming could be a ground ball specialist. But if they aren’t on the Opening Day team, the Pirates run a risk of losing them.